A Warning For Democrats: Handling the Economy is Trump's Last Remaining Bright Spot

[Bidenworth2020]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/handling-the-economy-is-trumps-last-remaining-bright-spot

A really interesting article IMO- although I would say that considering cases of the virus are increasing, it is highly unlikely this will be the only issue voters are considering at the ballot box.

[CellarDoor]

My thoughts related to the economy are pretty simple:

1.  Biden was leading Trump pretty significantly when the economy was good, with the exception of the period of time where Biden was struggling in the primaries.  With the primary over and the Democratic party unified, I would expect to see Biden winning this election even if the events of the last few months didn't happen.

2.  For those who keep saying, "Things will tighten as the economy improves", I don't get the logic.  Public polling has shown that Trump is still getting reasonably good marks for his management of the economy, and yet he is tanking in the polls.  That means that his tanking poll numbers are unrelated to the economy.  They are primarily due to his Coronavirus response (or lack thereof) and his response (or lack therof) to issues of systemic racism. 

[Hammy]

Good for Dems to not let their guard down at the very least. Though this will all depend how many potential Biden voters see the economy as their #1 priority as well.

[Beet]

It is curious why an unpopular Trump is consistently leading on the economy, even in a bad economy.

It has not always been so with Republicans and Democrats. In 2008, Obama held a 12 point lead over McCain on the economy in August, before the Lehman collapse. In 2004, when the economy was booming Kerry led Bush on the economy. Heck even in 2012, when Obama was running for re-election with an 8% unemployment rate, he pulled even with Romney on the economy.

Yet since Trump emerged on the scene, he has always led his Democratic opponents over the issue of the economy. Why is that? One hypothesis is that he is seen to prioritize it, while Democrats no longer do. Obama ran on an energy policy of "all of the above." Today's Democrats, on the other hand, want to eliminate the health care industry, energy industry, and private education industry, demonize the banking industry, and demonize a number of professional categories, such as the police. It seems that every day the Democrats find a new industry that employs millions of Americans to propose simply eradicating. Their wild anti-job agenda is nothing like the Democrats of the past, who represented labor unions, and by proxy, workers, or at least claimed to.

[Bidenworth2020]

It is curious why an unpopular Trump is consistently leading on the economy, even in a bad economy.

It has not always been so with Republicans and Democrats. In 2008, Obama held a 12 point lead over McCain on the economy in August, before the Lehman collapse. In 2004, when the economy was booming Kerry led Bush on the economy. Heck even in 2012, when Obama was running for re-election with an 8% unemployment rate, he pulled even with Romney on the economy.

Yet since Trump emerged on the scene, he has always led his Democratic opponents over the issue of the economy. Why is that? One hypothesis is that he is seen to prioritize it, while Democrats no longer do. Obama ran on an energy policy of "all of the above." Today's Democrats, on the other hand, want to eliminate the health care industry, energy industry, and private education industry, demonize the banking industry, and demonize a number of professional categories, such as the police. It seems that every day the Democrats find a new industry that employs millions of Americans to propose simply eradicating. Their wild anti-job agenda is nothing like the Democrats of the past, who represented labor unions, and by proxy, workers, or at least claimed to.

There is certainly truth to this, but it's important to note that Trump isn't just preferred on the economy over Biden-- infact, Biden is actually trusted more than Trump on the economy by some people who approve of Trump's handling-- but rather, Trump himself receives high marks on the economy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We've heard this a lot already, but it does seem to be (bafflingly) true based on polling, though it's not insurmountable. Trump is only earning pluralities when it comes to handling of the economy. It would be good for the Biden campaign to come up with a strategy of some sort to drive those numbers down to where they should be, of course. Like how Trump squandered the consistently improving economy that the Obama administration left him with, and how Obama (and Biden by extension) saved the economy from a depression which can be done again. Meanwhile, some states are closing back up in some capacity as the virus continues to spread, so that could be used against Trump, who always prioritized the economy over peoples' safety in the first place and should own how badly that plan has backfired, as well.

If people are continuing to think that this because Trump is a "successful businessman" though, then those people aren't worth appealing to. It should be obvious that Trump's overrated and inaccurate business experience has translated poorly into running a country.

[Tartarus Sauce]

That's not a warning for Democrats, that's a warning for Trump. Not only is he now just marginally ahead of Biden in economic handling, but his general job approval has always significantly lagged behind his economic evaluations. He had greatly reduced ability to gain upside from the economy compared to what one would have expected even when it was roaring, and now it's in the crapper, with a significant chance to get much worse by election time.

[Mr. Smith]

Hillary won voters where the economy was concerned, that's why 2018 was such a disaster that brought forth a GOP veto-proof majority and the response to COVID was hamstrung as a result of the gridlock.

...oh wait...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They should stop teasing us with registered polls v LV, Trump is gonna be competetive until the end. It's a VBM election, not an in person election and some people just like with census wont turn in their ballots. The ones that dont chose to.

[Tekken_Guy]

More like a warning to Trump:

He’s not nearly as strong on the economy question as he was before the virus. The economy probably won’t fully recover until the pandemic is over, which most likely won’t be before the election. The virus itself is likely to be just as big a factor in the vote, if not more so. If the economy doesn’t recover his numbers on that issue could continue to sink.

[°Leprechaun]

As weird as it sounds, and it is really weird considering how high unemployment is:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval_economy-6182.html