How likely is there to be an upset in this election?

[Bomster]

2016 was quite possibly the biggest election upset since 1948. Donald Trump, one of the most unpopular presidential candidates in history and surely the most outrageous, defeated Hillary Clinton in a shocking upset through the electoral college, a victory driven by a million factors. Trump’s surprise victory came from upsetting Clinton in what was thought to be three reliably Democratic states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, despite Clinton leading polls from these states. These victories mostly came about due to a perfect storm of lowered Democratic enthusiasm, less minority turnout, incredibly excited Republican turnout, “Obama-Trump” voters, and undecided voters breaking hard for Trump at the very last second.

Now 2020 is very different from 2016. Donald Trump has seen one of the most consistently unpopular administrations in American history. He was accomplished very little and made no efforts to expand his support, instead doubling down on his base. He has made himself incredibly divisive and has buried a stake in the heart of his nation, tearing it apart. He has failed to lead in many instances and overall is an odious, unlikable character, atleast to about 55% of Americans.

However, despite all of this, despite his opponent leading in nearly all the polls by double digits, despite him running an absolute awful campaign and having an awful performance as president this year, could we still see an upset that leads to Trump somehow securing re-election and damning this nation to darkness for another 4 years?

[SnowLabrador]

I'd say maybe 50-60%. Trump's got tricks up his sleeve, I just know it.

[MillennialModerate]

I mean elections almost always are predictable aren’t they?

Only 2000 was a genuine tossup. Otherwise you have the election upsets of 48 and 16. Otherwise the likely winner was known before Election Day.

I’d say right about 50% even.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bush W got a rally around the flag due to Reagan Funeral and Obama got a rally due to Hurricane Sandy, Covid 19 was already the October surprise and Trump botched it, unless there is a robust recovery and bars, stadiums and schools are open by the Fall, not just retail stores, Trump is finished. Which they wont be without a vaccine

[MABA 2020]

I don't expect it to happen, but then the whole point of an upset is that it's unexpected so theres always the possibility in any election

[pppolitics]

CHANCE OF AN UPSET IS ABOUT THE ODDS OF...
GETTING A TWO PAIR

according to the JHK model

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's bound to be at least one upset in an individual state, an individual senate race, and in at least 5 house races. Nationally, maybe a 1/3 chance Trump wins.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My read of the electorate right now:

1. Trump has been between 51% and 56% disapproval since the inauguration honeymoon ended, except for a few fleeting moments.

2. The only reason Trump was polling as well as he was going into 2020, was because the Generic Democrat was a big unknown, and centrists really didn't like Bernie Sanders.

3. Once Biden secured the nomination, he became a viable alternative to Trump, giving likely voters a reasonable choice.

4. It seems highly unlikely Trump's unfavorable ratings will drop below 50% even in the best case scenario for him. The only time it was under 50% was during the honeymoon, and last March, which had a COVID rally-around-the-flag moment that boosted his acquittal bump.

5. Joe Biden isn't nearly as unpopular as Hillary Clinton.

I don't see how Trump pulls off an upset unless the Biden campaign does something really, really stupid. The public seem to have made up their minds.