GOP Internal Polling: Trump Far Behind In MI, WI, PA + Trailing In AZ, FL, and NC

[wbrocks67]

No #s specifically but this is interesting, lining up with public polling:

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1273670656396275713

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

You love to see it

[WD]

Republicans is disarray. Beautiful!

[Progressive Pessimist]

I almost wish that those strategists were as deluded as Trump and his supporters in their optimism towards winning.

[Hope For A New Era]

There's only so much good news I can handle!

[Zache]

Democrats need to net three seats, and both parties expect Democrats to lose Alabama and win Arizona.

****, it's got that bad for McSally?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats need to net three seats, and both parties expect Democrats to lose Alabama and win Arizona.

****, it's got that bad for McSally?

Yes, she looks to be pretty well toasted at this point.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Colorado should also be an easy pickup for the Dems.

After AZ+CO the Dems need two more.

NC and ME are the most likely.  ME will get a lot of attention because it's Susan Collins' seat.  NC is flying completely under the radar but Cal Cunningham is a slight favorite against Thom Tillis.  The Dems need to be giving NC a LOT more attention.  If you want to help us take back the Senate the best candidate you can donate to right now is Cunningham.  Not McGrath/Booker, not Harrison.

MT, IA, and the two GA seats are also red hot contests.  Bullock, Greenfield and Ossoff have each gotten recent polls showing them ahead of their Republican opponents.  Raphael Warnock is in a chaotic jungle election, but his opponent will be either scandal-tainted Kelly Loeffler or Doug "Democrats love terrorists" Collins, so he also has a good shot.

A complete wildcard is Al Gross in Alaska, running as an independent against Dan Sullivan.  The Democratic Party has been quietly building a shadow party of Democrat-aligned independents in Alaska for the last few years, and they've been doing pretty well.  Alaskans like (D) candidates as long as they don't have a (D) next to their name.  Sullivan only won his last race by 2% in a GOP wave year, so this is definitely a race to keep an eye on.


If this is a wave year, the Dems could win all five of those seats and get to 55.  Looking ahead to 2022, we get a rematch in a lot of the seats that should have been wins in 2016 but weren't due to the Trump upset.  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two obvious pickups, and Dems would also have a shot in:

• NC (open seat)
• IA (Grassley, unpopular and possibly retiring)
• FL (Rubio and his tanking popularity)
• AK (could become a very messy race if Trump goes to war with Murkowski)
• MO (Jason Kander rematch, he only lost by 2 in 2016)

Dems would only need to win 3 of these seats to get a Senate supermajority, which is very doable.  A D+5 environment gets you NC and MO, and all you have to do is take down either Grassley or Rubio.  There it is Dems, that's your battle plan for the next two years.  Keep your foot on the damn gas for the next six months and donate to Cal Cunningham.

[WD]

Colorado should also be an easy pickup for the Dems.

After AZ+CO the Dems need two more.

NC and ME are the most likely.  ME will get a lot of attention because it's Susan Collins' seat.  NC is flying completely under the radar but Cal Cunningham is a slight favorite against Thom Tillis.  The Dems need to be giving NC a LOT more attention.  If you want to help us take back the Senate the best candidate you can donate to right now is Cunningham.  Not McGrath/Booker, not Harrison.

MT, IA, and the two GA seats are also red hot contests.  Bullock, Greenfield and Ossoff have each gotten recent polls showing them ahead of their Republican opponents.  Raphael Warnock is in a chaotic jungle election, but his opponent will be either scandal-tainted Kelly Loeffler or Doug "Democrats love terrorists" Collins, so he also has a good shot.

A complete wildcard is Al Gross in Alaska, running as an independent against Dan Sullivan.  The Democratic Party has been quietly building a shadow party of Democrat-aligned independents in Alaska for the last few years, and they've been doing pretty well.  Alaskans like (D) candidates as long as they don't have a (D) next to their name.  Sullivan only won his last race by 2% in a GOP wave year, so this is definitely a race to keep an eye on.


If this is a wave year, the Dems could win all five of those seats and get to 55.  Looking ahead to 2022, we get a rematch in a lot of the seats that should have been wins in 2016 but weren't due to the Trump upset.  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two obvious pickups, and Dems would also have a shot in:

• NC (open seat)
• IA (Grassley, unpopular and possibly retiring)
• FL (Rubio and his tanking popularity)
• AK (could become a very messy race if Trump goes to war with Murkowski)
• MO (Jason Kander rematch, he only lost by 2 in 2016)

Dems would only need to win 3 of these seats to get a Senate supermajority, which is very doable.  A D+5 environment gets you NC and MO, and all you have to do is take down either Grassley or Rubio.  There it is Dems, that's your battle plan for the next two years.  Keep your foot on the damn gas for the next six months and donate to Cal Cunningham.

Huh wdym? You said that you predict Dems will get 55 seats and only need 3 for a supermajority. Wouldn’t they need 5 more to get from 55 to 60?

[GeneralMacArthur]

3 of the ones I listed in the bullet point section.  Those on top of WI+PA which should be easy pickups just like CO+AZ this year.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats don’t have a shot at winning Senate races in IA and MO in a Biden midterm, and WI certainly wouldn’t be an "easy pickup" either.

A Democratic supermajority in 2022 isn’t happening. This really isn’t how midterms work.

[S019]

Democrats don’t have a shot at winning Senate races in IA and MO in a Biden midterm.

Agreed on Iowa, but MO is possible given how anemic of a campaigner he is. He did worse than Josh Hawley, and Hawley was facing an incumbent, while Blunt was one. Again, it's Likely R (MO), not Safe R, but yeah there's close to no chance of Blunt losing, but him being anemic, means it's possible, albeit extremely unlikely.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats don’t have a shot at winning Senate races in IA and MO in a Biden midterm.

Agreed on Iowa, but MO is possible given how anemic of a campaigner he is. He did worse than Josh Hawley, and Hawley was facing an incumbent, while Blunt was one. Again, it's Likely R (MO), not Safe R, but yeah there's close to no chance of Blunt losing, but him being anemic, means it's possible, albeit extremely unlikely.

I agree with almost all of this, but it’s worth keeping in mind that red state Democrats tend to fare especially well in presidential years and when Republicans control the White House. Blunt did worse than Hawley, but Kander was also more popular than McCaskill.

The MO GOP is pretty awful, but it’s not like Blunt was some super-strong candidate in 2009/2010 either, and the state has only gotten more Republican since then. My guess is that it will play out almost exactly like the 2010 race (talk of it being competitive early on/polling showing him down in early 2021/etc. only for him to win relatively easily on election day). That said, he might retire (and I hope he does).

[NOVA Green]

Not sure why everyone is drooling over a GOP Internal...

Not that these result might actually represent the current state of US-GE-PRES RACE....

Typically Internals are generated by campaigns for a reason

In this case good chance that down-ballot PUB Candidates are wigging and worrying about how s**t's gonna go down in November....

If it was a legit Trump internal might be one thing, but instead appears to be a  Combobulation of scared 'PUB internals at various states worried about how badly they will get hit come November '20.

Not an expert, but in my book looks more like a "give me $$$ from Big Doners" and not just for a PRES Election race.....

[woodley park]

There's no guarantee Democrats will tank in Biden's first midterm. I don't think 2018 would have been a bloodbath for the GOP if Trump hadn't insisted on being such a horse's ass for his entire campaign and then first two years. If Biden just governs as a generic Democrat and the economy rebounds from COVID, the Democrats could make some small gains in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win NC

[Person Man]

There's no guarantee Democrats will tank in Biden's first midterm. I don't think 2018 would have been a bloodbath for the GOP if Trump hadn't insisted on being such a horse's ass for his entire campaign and then first two years. If Biden just governs as a generic Democrat and the economy rebounds from COVID, the Democrats could make some small gains in the Senate.

I think realistically, Democrats might be able to keep one chamber in 2022 if things in 2021 and 2022 aren't like they have been. Of course, you could have a situation like what we had with Obama in 2009 and 2010 where the recovery was slowed down by Republican business owners strategically trying to starve the Democrats out by not hiring anyone and blaming Obama. They used to say things like "we're being really conservative right now until we know more about what Obama wants to do".

[ultraviolet]

Colorado should also be an easy pickup for the Dems.

After AZ+CO the Dems need two more.

NC and ME are the most likely.  ME will get a lot of attention because it's Susan Collins' seat.  NC is flying completely under the radar but Cal Cunningham is a slight favorite against Thom Tillis.  The Dems need to be giving NC a LOT more attention.  If you want to help us take back the Senate the best candidate you can donate to right now is Cunningham.  Not McGrath/Booker, not Harrison.

MT, IA, and the two GA seats are also red hot contests.  Bullock, Greenfield and Ossoff have each gotten recent polls showing them ahead of their Republican opponents.  Raphael Warnock is in a chaotic jungle election, but his opponent will be either scandal-tainted Kelly Loeffler or Doug "Democrats love terrorists" Collins, so he also has a good shot.

A complete wildcard is Al Gross in Alaska, running as an independent against Dan Sullivan.  The Democratic Party has been quietly building a shadow party of Democrat-aligned independents in Alaska for the last few years, and they've been doing pretty well.  Alaskans like (D) candidates as long as they don't have a (D) next to their name.  Sullivan only won his last race by 2% in a GOP wave year, so this is definitely a race to keep an eye on.


If this is a wave year, the Dems could win all five of those seats and get to 55.  Looking ahead to 2022, we get a rematch in a lot of the seats that should have been wins in 2016 but weren't due to the Trump upset.  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two obvious pickups, and Dems would also have a shot in:

• NC (open seat)
• IA (Grassley, unpopular and possibly retiring)
• FL (Rubio and his tanking popularity)
• AK (could become a very messy race if Trump goes to war with Murkowski)
• MO (Jason Kander rematch, he only lost by 2 in 2016)

Dems would only need to win 3 of these seats to get a Senate supermajority, which is very doable.  A D+5 environment gets you NC and MO, and all you have to do is take down either Grassley or Rubio.  There it is Dems, that's your battle plan for the next two years.  Keep your foot on the damn gas for the next six months and donate to Cal Cunningham.

Huh wdym? You said that you predict Dems will get 55 seats and only need 3 for a supermajority. Wouldn’t they need 5 more to get from 55 to 60?

Because he already said PA and WI were the obvious pickups.

[pbrower2a]

2016 was supposed to be the reverse-wave of 2010 in the Senate. It proved largely a confirmation. The Right had the money, and we all know what the Golden Rule means in America: he who has the gold makes the rules. America's economic elites believe, like feudal elites, Gilded-Age robber-barons, and slave-era planters that nothing matters except the enrichment, gain, and power of those elites and that no human suffering can ever be in excess in the service of elite indulgence and authority.

[Alben Barkley]

Democrats need to net three seats, and both parties expect Democrats to lose Alabama and win Arizona.

****, it's got that bad for McSally?

Both Colorado and Arizona are Safe D at this point based on the polling. Not sure why CO wasn’t mentioned if AZ is; it’s even safer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats need to net three seats, and both parties expect Democrats to lose Alabama and win Arizona.

****, it's got that bad for McSally?

Both Colorado and Arizona are Safe D at this point based on the polling. Not sure why CO wasn’t mentioned if AZ is; it’s even safer.

AZ isn't Safe D, it is Leaning D at the present moment all Biden needs is 278

[Xing]

Colorado should also be an easy pickup for the Dems.

After AZ+CO the Dems need two more.

NC and ME are the most likely.  ME will get a lot of attention because it's Susan Collins' seat.  NC is flying completely under the radar but Cal Cunningham is a slight favorite against Thom Tillis.  The Dems need to be giving NC a LOT more attention.  If you want to help us take back the Senate the best candidate you can donate to right now is Cunningham.  Not McGrath/Booker, not Harrison.

MT, IA, and the two GA seats are also red hot contests.  Bullock, Greenfield and Ossoff have each gotten recent polls showing them ahead of their Republican opponents.  Raphael Warnock is in a chaotic jungle election, but his opponent will be either scandal-tainted Kelly Loeffler or Doug "Democrats love terrorists" Collins, so he also has a good shot.

A complete wildcard is Al Gross in Alaska, running as an independent against Dan Sullivan.  The Democratic Party has been quietly building a shadow party of Democrat-aligned independents in Alaska for the last few years, and they've been doing pretty well.  Alaskans like (D) candidates as long as they don't have a (D) next to their name.  Sullivan only won his last race by 2% in a GOP wave year, so this is definitely a race to keep an eye on.


If this is a wave year, the Dems could win all five of those seats and get to 55.  Looking ahead to 2022, we get a rematch in a lot of the seats that should have been wins in 2016 but weren't due to the Trump upset.  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two obvious pickups, and Dems would also have a shot in:

• NC (open seat)
• IA (Grassley, unpopular and possibly retiring)
• FL (Rubio and his tanking popularity)
• AK (could become a very messy race if Trump goes to war with Murkowski)
• MO (Jason Kander rematch, he only lost by 2 in 2016)

Dems would only need to win 3 of these seats to get a Senate supermajority, which is very doable.  A D+5 environment gets you NC and MO, and all you have to do is take down either Grassley or Rubio.  There it is Dems, that's your battle plan for the next two years.  Keep your foot on the damn gas for the next six months and donate to Cal Cunningham.

Looking ahead to 2022, Biden would have to be very popular to get a 2002 type situation where Democrats flip several seats in their own midterm. Even PA/WI would be difficult in a typical midterm environment, and there’s no way Democrats would win AK/IA/MO in a good year for Republicans. Getting 55 seats this year would pretty much guarantee that Democrats would hold the Senate until 2024 at least, since they don’t have that much defense to play in 2022, but pretty much any R seat is going to be an uphill battle in a typical midterm environment. Maybe PA would be a Toss-Up since there are several potential candidates.