Who wins NY-24?

[VAR]

?

[Woody]

Likely Katko.

[SnowLabrador]

Katko, sadly.

[Xing]

Katko, but narrowly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Still Tilt Katko, but really depends upon how much partisanship wins out as Biden is likely to carry the district by quite a bit.

[YE]

Am I the only one who believes in Balter?

[Hope For A New Era]

Katko is at John Perdue's level of invincible at this point. The state legislature should just draw him into a Republican pack district.

[wesmoorenerd]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

[VAR]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

That poll also found Balter’s favorables deep underwater (-10, same as Katko’s).

LOL @ anyone who thought this race was Lean/Likely R, though.

[Gracile]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

That poll also found Balter’s favorables deep underwater (-10, same as Katko’s).

LOL @ anyone who thought this race was Lean/Likely R, though.

I think the takeaway is that much of Katko's crossover appeal has eroded and Balter can win because of negative partisanship winning out.

[VAR]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

That poll also found Balter’s favorables deep underwater (-10, same as Katko’s).

LOL @ anyone who thought this race was Lean/Likely R, though.

I think the takeaway is that much of Katko's crossover appeal has eroded and Balter can win because of negative partisanship winning out.

Do you think Balter will win? I think it’s a pure tossup.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

That poll also found Balter’s favorables deep underwater (-10, same as Katko’s).

LOL @ anyone who thought this race was Lean/Likely R, though.

I think the takeaway is that much of Katko's crossover appeal has eroded and Balter can win because of negative partisanship winning out.

Do you think Balter will win? I think it’s a pure tossup.

If we learned 1 thing from 2018, it's that partisanship tends to win out by more than we expect in the House.

[Gracile]

Balter. The district is probably going to vote for Biden by double digits, maybe even by a margin in the high teens or twenties. Balter is running a significantly better campaign this time around, and she's been outraising Katko as of late. She's also leading Katko in the only high quality nonpartisan poll of the district. That poll, critically, also found Katko's favorables deep underwater. I think Balter takes him down.

That poll also found Balter’s favorables deep underwater (-10, same as Katko’s).

LOL @ anyone who thought this race was Lean/Likely R, though.

I think the takeaway is that much of Katko's crossover appeal has eroded and Balter can win because of negative partisanship winning out.

Do you think Balter will win? I think it’s a pure tossup.

Yes, though I think it will be close. Katko will still outrun Trump, but not nearly by enough to give him a win (and contrary to others in this thread, I don't think Biden will win NY-24 by Obama levels).

[Roll Roons]

Katko holds on by 2 or 3. One thing I noticed is that while he has the GOP, Conservative and Independence lines, a third candidate got Working Families.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

daddy katko