How is Pennsylvania trending R?

[Annatar]

PA is trending R because the dem trending areas have fewer people in them than the R trending areas, it's why PA moved from being D+5 in 2004 to D+3 in 2008 to D+1.5 in 2012 and R+2.8 in 2016, the state has trended Republican in 3 elections in a row and I expect that trend will continue.

[Non Swing Voter]

PA is trending R because the dem trending areas have fewer people in them than the R trending areas, it's why PA moved from being D+5 in 2004 to D+3 in 2008 to D+1.5 in 2012 and R+2.8 in 2016, the state has trended Republican in 3 elections in a row and I expect that trend will continue.

If you look at the last Presidential election there were a little over 6 million votes in PA.

The below counties trended Democrat last time according to Atlas:

Chester = 270K
Delaware = 300K
Montgomery = 440K
Bucks = 345K
Lancaster = 244K
Allegheny = 657K
Butler = 98K
Cumberland = 123K
Centre = 77K

Technically Philly didn't trend Democratic last time but that was probably due to lower African American turnout.  If you add that in:

Philly = 710K

If you add all the D trending counties + Philly, that's almost 3.3 million, which is more than half of voters.  Plus the areas above are where pretty much all of the population growth is.

[Annatar]

PA is trending R because the dem trending areas have fewer people in them than the R trending areas, it's why PA moved from being D+5 in 2004 to D+3 in 2008 to D+1.5 in 2012 and R+2.8 in 2016, the state has trended Republican in 3 elections in a row and I expect that trend will continue.

If you look at the last Presidential election there were a little over 6 million votes in PA.

The below counties trended Democrat last time according to Atlas:

Chester = 270K
Delaware = 300K
Montgomery = 440K
Bucks = 345K
Lancaster = 244K
Allegheny = 657K
Butler = 98K
Cumberland = 123K
Centre = 77K

Technically Philly didn't trend Democratic last time but that was probably due to lower African American turnout.  If you add that in:

Philly = 710K

If you add all the D trending counties + Philly, that's almost 3.3 million, which is more than half of voters.  Plus the areas above are where pretty much all of the population growth is.

You can't add Philly, it trended R, also turnout wasn't down in Philly, it went up, 691k votes in 2012 vs 709k in 2016.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It is trending  R but I still think it will be the most democratic trust belt state and the only one Kamala Harris can win in 2024 out of it, MI, WI

[Libertas Vel Mors]

PA is trending R because the dem trending areas have fewer people in them than the R trending areas, it's why PA moved from being D+5 in 2004 to D+3 in 2008 to D+1.5 in 2012 and R+2.8 in 2016, the state has trended Republican in 3 elections in a row and I expect that trend will continue.

If you look at the last Presidential election there were a little over 6 million votes in PA.

The below counties trended Democrat last time according to Atlas:

Chester = 270K
Delaware = 300K
Montgomery = 440K
Bucks = 345K
Lancaster = 244K
Allegheny = 657K
Butler = 98K
Cumberland = 123K
Centre = 77K

Technically Philly didn't trend Democratic last time but that was probably due to lower African American turnout.  If you add that in:

Philly = 710K

If you add all the D trending counties + Philly, that's almost 3.3 million, which is more than half of voters.  Plus the areas above are where pretty much all of the population growth is.

You can't add Philly, it trended R, also turnout wasn't down in Philly, it went up, 691k votes in 2012 vs 709k in 2016.

Yes, Philly has many WWC precincts

[Bismarck]

This forum overestimates geographic population shift. In a large, slow growing state  like PA this is a very slow process. The way voters in the state shift over time is much more important than where population is growing or not. The GOP now gets huge margins in the rural areas and even though Dems have made gains in SE PA they still don’t dominate there  the way the GOP does in the rural areas.