Senate Retirements and Replacements

[Frodo]

I have below the names of all those senators whom I think are most likely to retire in the not too distant future given their age and/or tenure in the Senate (or because they have been rumored to have been considering doing so), and would likely win re-election if they so choose.  Who do you think would be the most likely to replace them if they step down?
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Alabama: Richard Shelby (R)

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R)

Arizona: John McCain (R)

Colorado: Wayne Allard (R)

Hawai'i: Daniel Akaka (D) & Daniel Inouye (D)

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R)

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R)

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R)

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D)

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D)

Michigan: Carl Levin (D)

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)

Missouri: Kit Bond (R)

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R)

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D)

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R)

Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter (R)

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) & Bob Bennett (R)

Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D)

Virginia: John Warner (R)

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D) & John 'Jay' Rockefeller IV (D)

[Dave from Michigan]

For Michigan if Carl Levin retires republican Candice Miller could win the seat

[True Democrat]

Umm, you forgot Specter

[TheresNoMoney]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) some far-right Republican

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) Tony Knowles

Arizona: John McCain (R) Terry Goddard or Janet Napolitano

Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) Mark Udall or John Hickenlooper

Hawai'i: Daniel Akaka (D) & Daniel Inouye (D) Ed Case? Neil Abercrombie?

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R) Mike Pence

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) Kathleen Sebelius

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R) Ben Chandler & Dan Mongiardo

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D) Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D) Ed Markey or Marty Meehan

Michigan: Carl Levin (D) Bart Stupak or Jennifer Granholm?

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) Mike Moore

Missouri: Kit Bond (R) Russ Carnahan

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R) John Lynch

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) Rush Holt or Rob Andrews

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R) Martin Chavez, Patricia Madrid or Tom Udall

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) & Bob Bennett (R) some far-right Republican

Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D) Peter Welch

Virginia: John Warner (R) Creigh Deeds or James Webb

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D) & John 'Jay' Rockefeller IV (D)  Joe Manchin & Alan Mollohan

[© tweed]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R): No idea.  Roy Moore? 

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R): Hopefully Tony Knowles or Ethan Berkowitz

Arizona: John McCain (R): Would Napoliatano be interested?

Colorado: Wayne Allard (R): Tancredo would try, but the Democrats are making ground in the state and the Denver mayor (Hickenlooper?) should run.  His bowing out of the Governor's race leads me to believe he'd rather be a senator

Hawai'i: Daniel Akaka (D) & Daniel Inouye (D): Ed Case would have been, but he's screwed himself up by running and challenging Akaka.  Do these two have any sons?

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R): Mike Pence

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R): Tom Osbourne?  I'm ever grateful to him for going for two in that National Title Game

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R):  Would Fletcher want the seat?

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D): The poverty pimp, Kiweisi Mfume.  Or the loser of the Duncan/O'Malley primary

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D): Barney Frank most likely, hopefully Ben Affleck

Michigan: Carl Levin (D): Candice Miller

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R): Chip Pickering

Missouri: Kit Bond (R): no idea

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R): no idea

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D): Rob (I think) Andrews

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R) : no idea

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) & Bob Bennett (R): some Mormon

Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D): Howard Dean

Virginia: John Warner (R): Mark Warner, unless he's president

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D) & John 'Jay' Rockefeller IV (D): Nick Rahall certainly, maybe Manchin would be interested too.

[Ben.]

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R):  Would Fletcher want the seat?

Do you know how unpopular Fletcher is?! He's heading for a big defeat in '07 at the moment and Ben Chandler or one of the state's Dem congressmen would seem like far stronger candidates to replace either Bunning or McConnell at the moment.

[© tweed]

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R):  Would Fletcher want the seat?

Do you know how unpopular Fletcher is?! He's heading for a big defeat in '07 at the moment and Ben Chandler or one of the state's Dem congressmen would seem like far stronger candidates to replace either Bunning or McConnell at the moment.

Actually, I didn't.  I wasn't really following the situation.

[© tweed]

Oooh, I just checked his SUSA approval rating.  35%.  Bogey.

[Ben.]

Oooh, I just checked his SUSA approval rating.  35%.  Bogey.

Now the Dems need to find a decent candidate i would have thought Chandler will run though i'd like to see Mongiardo given a shot a some state wide office lower down the ballot AG or SoS? His near sucess in '04 was also down to his own strengths as well as Bunnings'... er.. illness(?)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No mention of Maine? Those are good pickup possibilities if they're open. Also, the Democrats should be able to win Specters seat when he retires in 2010.

[Dave from Michigan]

the Michigan race will be interesting, if Miller wins it won't be by that much 2-3%

[Adlai Stevenson]

I already posted a topic 'Future Senators' on the possibilities some months ago.

[WMS]

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R) Martin Chavez, Patricia Madrid or Tom Udall

Chavez - as I've posted before, a good candidate but getting the nomination would be difficult for him...but he wants it, I'm sure.
Madrid, Udall - won't win, because...

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R) - Heather Wilson (R). Domenici is a major backer of Wilson, and she would clearly be his choice to succeed him, and Domenici has clout.

Wilson vs. Chavez: super-competitive race wherein I refuse to watch TV for a year to avoid the ads
Wilson vs. Madrid: 50-55% victory for Wilson
Wilson vs. Udall: the same (explain your leftist votes on abortion in Little Texas, Tom...or the Valley, for that matter...or in Dona Ana...or, etc.)
Wilson vs. Other Democrat: depends on who exactly runs. If the Dems pick a lesser candidate from their Tammany Hall or Frothing Leftist wings, Wilson bumps up a few points.

Wilson can make a very solid claim to being a moderate out here...

[7,052,770]

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) Mike Moore

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R): Chip Pickering

Scoonie is correct, rather than the ultrapessimistic Tweed

[HardRCafé]

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) Kathleen Sebelius

That's darling.

[Downwinder]

Utah:

(R)
#1.  Mike Leavitt, former 3 term Governor, former Administrator of the EPA, currently Secretary of HHS.  Only 56 years old, and has a respected political career.

#2.  Current Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.  Businessman, former Ambassador to Singapore.

#3.  Current Attorney General Mark Shurtleff.

(D)
#1.  Representative Jim Matheson.  Son of a wildly popular former governor, a 'blue-dog' Democrat, and able to survive a redistricting plan that was meant to end his career but which gave him exposure to more of the state.

#2.  Former AG Jan Graham.  First woman elected to state-wide office in Utah.

#3.  Scott Matheson, Dean of the University of Utah Law School.  Unsuccessful candidate for governor against Huntsman in 2004.

Never going to happen:
SLC Mayor Ross 'Rocky' Anderson--too liberal.
Former SLC Mayor DeeDee Corradini--too scandalized.
Reps. Bishop and Cannon--too polarizing.

[socaldem]

Utah:

(R)
#1.  Mike Leavitt, former 3 term Governor, former Administrator of the EPA, currently Secretary of HHS.  Only 56 years old, and has a respected political career.

#2.  Current Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.  Businessman, former Ambassador to Singapore.

#3.  Current Attorney General Mark Shurtleff.

(D)
#1.  Representative Jim Matheson.  Son of a wildly popular former governor, a 'blue-dog' Democrat, and able to survive a redistricting plan that was meant to end his career but which gave him exposure to more of the state.

#2.  Former AG Jan Graham.  First woman elected to state-wide office in Utah.

#3.  Scott Matheson, Dean of the University of Utah Law School.  Unsuccessful candidate for governor against Huntsman in 2004.

Never going to happen:
SLC Mayor Ross 'Rocky' Anderson--too liberal.
Former SLC Mayor DeeDee Corradini--too scandalized.
Reps. Bishop and Cannon--too polarizing.

Would Rocky Anderson be able to win a SLC-based congressional district, though, if Matheson went on to the senate?  In other words, would he be able to play county wide or is he fairly polarizing?

[Democratic Hawk]

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D): Barney Frank most likely, hopefully Ben Affleck

Are you being serious, Boss? For the record, I like Affleck and would indeed like to see him as a Democratic Senator for Massachusetts. He's settled down now

Dave

[Downwinder]

Would Rocky Anderson be able to win a SLC-based congressional district, though, if Matheson went on to the senate?  In other words, would he be able to play county wide or is he fairly polarizing?

I very much doubt it; he tried in '96 when the 2nd district was in it's old form, and lost to perennial candidate, Merrill Cook.  Outside of SLC, he is extremely polarizing.  He'll never hold an office outside of SLC.

[WMS]

Hmm, must have missed this thread the last time I updated. Once again from here:

Tuesday, March 14, 2006: It's Never Too Early; Domenici Indicates 08' Re-Election Bid; We Go Indepth And Inside

When he strode to the victory podium on Election Night 02' NM GOP U.S. Senator Pete Domenici had his family gathered at his side and indicated that it would be his last race. Not everyone believed it and it looks as if the skeptics were right. The 73 year old Domenici has indicated he will seek re-election in 2008 to an unprecedented seventh, six year term. He did it in a fundraising letter dated March 3rd sent to key supporters across our Enchanted Land.

Now, let me hedge a bit. This letter is written in a way that the money Domenici is raising could possibly go to other campaigns, not neccesarily his own re-election, but if that is the purpose he has me fooled.

Again, no one is surprised, especially Democrats who have long joked that only the Grim Reaper will keep Pete out of the World's Most Exclusive Club. For the record, here are the money lines from the Domenici letter: "I realize it may seem early to raise money for re-election, but as New Mexico's population grows and due to the high cost of television advertising, it is more challenging than ever to collect the funds I need...With your help, I am determined to press forward with a bold agenda in the coming year and to run a positive re-election campaign..."

Domenici will be 76 years old in 08'. His health has been an issue. But a recent treatment has relieved arm pain and my observers on the trail report that, for the most part, Domenici appears to be doing well. The question remains, however, how he will feel in two years. The apparent re-elect announcement may be intended to keep the field clear for the powerful chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. But ambitious hopefuls will keep a close eye not only on the senator's voting records, but his medical records as well.

There will also be questions whether the senator's legendary political antenna are as receptive as they should be. His recent staunch support of the Bush Dubai ports deal went completely against the grain of mainstream American political thought, but he picked up an IOU from the White House and appears to have suffered little, if at all, for the controversial position. So it goes when you have free tickets to every ride in the amusement park.

THE DOMENICI FILE

Domenici's key staffer is Steve Bell, who continues to play a behind-the-scenes role in the NM GOP, sometimes attempting to shape the party to the liking of this boss. As for the Dems, they long ago gave up on ousting the ABQ native. The last real Domenici race was in 78' when Toney Anaya gave him a run for his money. It's been easy street ever since, but one has to wonder if a strong candidate might emerge this time, if for no other reason but to position themselves for the day that Pete does eventually vacate the seat.

Re-election is not Domenici's for the asking, but it's as close as you get. The age issue is not what it would have been 20 years ago given today's longer and healthier life spans. Most important is the senator's continued and unmatched record of success in bringing vast amounts of federal funding into this low-income state.

When he gave up (or was eased out) of the helm of the Senate Budget Committee, some D.C. Alligators read it as a diminishing of his fortunes. And it may have been. But the energy committee chairmanship has given him even deeper roots in federal funding back home, winning him ardent support among the thousands of workers and contractors whose jobs depend on Uncle Sam's deep pockets and Pete's ability to pick them.

As a NM icon, it is extremely difficult for his opponents to tie the senator's prospects to those of any national administration. And even though the current White House is one of the most unpopular in his 34 year tenure, Domenici's in-your-face support of the Dubai deal shows just how much rope he has to burn.

Pete's somewhat aloof personality and tendency to dictate has held him back from winning popular personality contests. But this game is about power, politics and, in Domenici's case, delivering the goods. On that score, he is at the head of the class. Barring any health setbacks, our senior citizen-senior senator is in no danger of being flunked out by Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico.
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Nope, scratch this one off the Dem list for 2008. Wait until 2014.

[Gustaf]

Alabama: Richard Shelby (R) some far-right Republican

Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) Tony Knowles

Arizona: John McCain (R) Terry Goddard or Janet Napolitano

Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) Mark Udall or John Hickenlooper

Hawai'i: Daniel Akaka (D) & Daniel Inouye (D) Ed Case? Neil Abercrombie?

Indiana: Richard Lugar (R) Mike Pence

Kansas: Sam Brownback (R) Kathleen Sebelius

Kentucky: Jim Bunning (R) & Mitch McConnell (R) Ben Chandler & Dan Mongiardo

Maryland: Barbara Mikulski (D) Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy (D) Ed Markey or Marty Meehan

Michigan: Carl Levin (D) Bart Stupak or Jennifer Granholm?

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R) Mike Moore

Missouri: Kit Bond (R) Russ Carnahan

New Hampshire: Judd Gregg (R) John Lynch

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) Rush Holt or Rob Andrews

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R) Martin Chavez, Patricia Madrid or Tom Udall

Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) & Bob Bennett (R) some far-right Republican

Vermont: Patrick Leahy (D) Peter Welch

Virginia: John Warner (R) Creigh Deeds or James Webb

West Virginia: Robert Byrd (D) & John 'Jay' Rockefeller IV (D)  Joe Manchin & Alan Mollohan

So bascially, all states except Utah and Alabama will elect Dems at first opportunity? What will the senate make-up be then, 60-40 to Democrats?