Will any states swing in Trump's favour if Biden wins by a decisive margin?

[Jesus save us]

In 2008, even with Obama crushing Mccain on a national level, there were 5 states where the Reps improved on their 2004 position: West Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Assuming Biden wins by a comparably large margin, are there any states where Trump will manage to improve on his 2016 performance?

The easy answer is Utah... any others?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden can even win UT

[Jesus save us]

Biden can even win UT

True. And DC will vote Libertarian.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DC have Donna Edwards and Kweisi Mfume and Ben Jealous and Rep Eleanor,  whom will be the new delegation representing Ut when they go into statehood; consequently,  UT will get an extra EC vote. That's why Romney will vote with Dems to pass DC statehood

[clever but short]

I feel like it would be quite unlikely for there to be none, but the two I feel suspect most strongly will swing right are KY and WV. And it seems like that would imply problems in PA and OH...

After that I think the likeliest bets are the Dakotas.

All of the states that swung against Obama were Safe R.

[nclib]

I also think it's unlikely to be none (or even none other than Utah). Also, Utah will only swing right since many McMullin voters will go to Trump; Biden will still get a higher % than HRC.

[MT Treasurer]

I really don’t think UT will swing as strongly Republican as many people expect, especially if Biden wins by a decisive margin.

[Ferguson97]

I really don’t think UT will swing as strongly Republican as many people expect, especially if Biden wins by a decisive margin.

Evan McMullin isn't running. Unless there's a massive write-in campaign, R's will flock to Trump over a pro-choice candidate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Don't really see it.  It would have to be a state that's getting more rural or something, with not a lot of swingy voters, where there is also Republican room for growth. 

I guess I'll go with Vermont being the most likely to swing marginally in Trump's favor under the above scenario.  Delaware would be another contender IMO but Biden's from there so that's not happening.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Don't really see it.  It would have to be a state that's getting more rural or something, with not a lot of swingy voters, where there is also Republican room for growth. 

I guess I'll go with Vermont being the most likely to swing marginally in Trump's favor under the above scenario.  Delaware would be another contender IMO but Biden's from there so that's not happening.

Clinton lost a ton of votes to third-party/Bernie write-ins in Vermont. There’s no way Trump improves his margins.

Note that I am assuming that’s what the topic is about. Swings in margin, not performance toplines.

[SuperCow]

DC have Donna Edwards and Kweisi Mfume and Ben Jealous and Rep Eleanor,  whom will be the new delegation representing Ut when they go into statehood; consequently,  UT will get an extra EC vote. That's why Romney will vote with Dems to pass DC statehood

That deal's been off the table since the 2010 census. Utah already got its extra EC vote from 2012 on.

[Xing]

Probably, since there are almost always states that swing the opposite way of the country as a whole. Other than UT, I could see states like AR, ID, and TN swinging toward Trump even if Biden wins big.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Considering Utah is home to many nevertrumpers(despite the fact the naysayers believe otherwise), it's not totally unreasonable to think Biden could win if he's winning by HIGH single digits nationally. It's certainly more likely then say, Missouri lol

[AGA]

Possibly rural states that haven't been affected too much by the coronavirus. Places like Nebrask and South Dakota.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

AR if rural black counties in the eastern part of the state continue to bleed population
But on the other hand Biden could flip Washington county if he's winning by a decisive margin.