CNN cites an Oxford Economic model which has Biden winning Missouri before Georgia

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

[Orwell]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

It says in the excerpt you posted this isn't a CNN prediction, but a "state-based election model run by Oxford Economics" so your title is misleading.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/20/business/economy-election-trump-biden-jobs/index.html

A separate state-based election model run by Oxford Economics that incorporates local economic trends and gasoline prices predicts Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. That model forecasts that seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.

It says in the excerpt you posted this isn't a CNN prediction, but a "state-based election model run by Oxford Economics" so your title is misleading.

They still used that, like there are so many studies out there and they used a study which had MO going Dem before GA but ill change the title

[ProudModerate2]

Yes, I read this full article earlier this morning.
The economic recession we will experience will give Biden an advantage, but I dont think it will reach to Missouri. I will be super shocked if that happened in November.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Did Amy Walter help build this model

[McGarnagle]

Trump will win Missouri by between 5 and 10 points this year

[OSR stands with Israel]

Did Amy Walter help build this model

Hey we two agree on something regarding trends

[ON Progressive]

Oh my God, this model has Trump winning only 35% of the popular vote and still getting over 200 electoral votes.

This is hilariously bad.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Oh my God, this model has Trump winning only 35% of the popular vote and still getting over 200 electoral votes.

This is hilariously bad.

Trump could lose the popular vote by 30% and Georgia and Texas wouldn’t be there just yet, imo

[MT Treasurer]

Don’t forget Missouri before Arizona.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oh my God, this model has Trump winning only 35% of the popular vote and still getting over 200 electoral votes.

This is hilariously bad.

lmao

[Hope For A New Era]

lol, wtf is this

[Ferguson97]

Zero chance this happens unless Biden really runs up the margins in blue states lmao

[Lognog]

CNN has some of the worst "analysis" out there

[Alben Barkley]

If Trump only got 35%, that would be the worst performance by a major party candidate in the popular vote in modern history. Worse than HW 1992, Walter Mondale, George McGovern, Barry Goldwater, and Alf Landon.

I REALLY do not see that happening in such a polarized time, to say the least. Maybe theoretically, he should do no better than that if you only take into account economic factors and assume everyone will respond by voting against the incumbent. But that’s not the way elections work, especially nowadays.

The state-based model makes even less sense. Is it stuck in 2004 or something, thinking Missouri would flip before Georgia? Or quite a few other states for that matter, including Florida? I really don’t know what data they could possibly be basing their model on to reach such a conclusion. Whatever it is, seems to focus too much on the midwest/rust belt and fails to take into account trends against Democrats there and for Democrats elsewhere.

And yeah, if he really is losing the popular vote that badly, needless to say he’d lose much more than seven states anyway.

[Hammy]

lol, wtf is this

This is CNN.

[Tender Branson]

The guys @ Oxford have no clue.

[BlueSwan]

Economic models can't even predict the economy, so using them to predict elections is madness.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Another wildcard is how the pandemic impacts voter turnout. Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia, Oxford Economics said.

Tennessee? lol

[Tender Branson]

Another wildcard is how the pandemic impacts voter turnout. Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia, Oxford Economics said.

Tennessee? lol

*chuckle*

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Oh my God, this model has Trump winning only 35% of the popular vote and still getting over 200 electoral votes.

This is hilariously bad.

Even worse, this economic model had Trump winning 55% of the popular vote before the pandemic, IE an11-12 point landslide.  So yeah, take these Oxford guys with a grain of salt.

[ProudModerate2]

lol, wtf is this

This is CNN.

It's a national election model released by Oxford Economics.

[Politician]

They have MO flipping before AZ, even worse.

Do they have a DeLorean or Tardis to go back to 2012?

[Hammy]

lol, wtf is this

This is CNN.

It's a national election model released by Oxford Economics.

You missed the joke and I'm getting old.

[Figueira]

Looks like another example of economists thinking that "economics" encompasses everything and therefore they're experts on everything.