GA- BK Strategies (R): Trump +2

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6890619-RSLC-Georgia-Memo-May-2020.html

Trump 48, Biden 46

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This is one of the most hackish polls I've looked at just by looking at the language these guys are using.

[Pollster]

It's funny that such an over-the-top memo is reporting such unimpressive numbers for its funders.

[MidwestPollster]

Hey everyone - first time posting here. Look forward to November and talking with everyone.

These Georgia polls, along with NC, are very intriguing. If Biden can keep both states competitive, might be a long night for Trump.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hey everyone - first time posting here. Look forward to November and talking with everyone.

These Georgia polls, along with NC, are very intriguing. If Biden can keep both states competitive, might be a long night for Trump.

Welcome to Talk Elections!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hey everyone - first time posting here. Look forward to November and talking with everyone.

These Georgia polls, along with NC, are very intriguing. If Biden can keep both states competitive, might be a long night for Trump.

Are you a real pollster too?

[MidwestPollster]

Haha, i like to think so but I’m not. Just a novice political junky, at best.

[fluffypanther19]

This is one of the most hackish polls I've looked at just by looking at the language these guys are using.

holy moly, you weren't kidding. what the hell 

[Alben Barkley]

It's funny that such an over-the-top memo is reporting such unimpressive numbers for its funders.

Seriously, this is like what, the fifth internal GOP poll of GA in a row that shows Trump's lead is extremely narrow and within the margin of error at best (at least one showed Biden ahead)? And yet they're cocky about it??? If Trump loses it will be in part because their overconfidence is their weakness.

[MidwestPollster]

Trump has so little room for error. Factoring Dem turn out in 18, along with Trump’s narrow EC victories in 16, polling such as this is very troubling for him.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It's funny that such an over-the-top memo is reporting such unimpressive numbers for its funders.

Seriously, this is like what, the fifth internal GOP poll of GA in a row that shows Trump's lead is extremely narrow and within the margin of error at best (at least one showed Biden ahead)? And yet they're cocky about it??? If Trump loses it will be in part because their overconfidence is their weakness.

At the end, they do at least admit there is some vulnerability:

"If Republicans convince themselves otherwise and don’t take the threat seriously, we will quickly see big wins for the Democrats. Georgia is absolutely a swing state in 2020."

[MidwestPollster]

Question for more experienced members (than me) on here:

Any reason to believe that if GA goes Dem, then so will NC and FL? Or, alternatively, GA only goes Dem if FL and NC do?

[Alben Barkley]

Question for more experienced members (than me) on here:

Any reason to believe that if GA goes Dem, then so will NC and FL? Or, alternatively, GA only goes Dem if FL and NC do?

Most likely if GA flips, FL and NC already have. But it's not entirely impossible that GA flips but at least one of the others doesn't. Stranger things have happened. Florida is notorious for coming down to the wire seemingly no matter what, so I can imagine a world in which Trump wins Florida by like .0002% but loses GA and NC because they have more normal trends. It's not all that likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[ProudModerate2]

Impressive gains by Biden in those competitive southern states: FL, NC and GA.

[Pollster]

Question for more experienced members (than me) on here:

Any reason to believe that if GA goes Dem, then so will NC and FL? Or, alternatively, GA only goes Dem if FL and NC do?

Most likely if GA flips, FL and NC already have. But it's not entirely impossible that GA flips but at least one of the others doesn't. Stranger things have happened. Florida is notorious for coming down to the wire seemingly no matter what, so I can imagine a world in which Trump wins Florida by like .0002% but loses GA and NC because they have more normal trends. It's not all that likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

I agree - North Carolina and Georgia have similar demographics, with the key difference being that NC's rural areas tend to vote more Dem than GA's, and their suburban areas vice versa. It appears that national trends are taking a firmer hold over both states, though, as the House PV was 50-48 R in NC in 2018 (with one R seat uncontested) and GA was 52-48 (with one seat of each party uncontested). Easy to see them voting within a point of each other in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Question for more experienced members (than me) on here:

Any reason to believe that if GA goes Dem, then so will NC and FL? Or, alternatively, GA only goes Dem if FL and NC do?

IMO the likelihood of flipping at the presidential level from 2016 is Florida, then NC, then Georgia.  As a Georgia native myself I'm still a little skeptical that the state will flip, but I think it's certainly in play and worth investment by the Biden campaign.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia will be competitive, clearly, but I do fear that it's Republican floor is going to be too stubborn.

[SN2903]

Georgia will be competitive, clearly, but I do fear that it's Republican floor is going to be too stubborn.

I think it's the same boat as Texas. Drifing D but still Lean R state. Trump should win both by around 5 to 6. I do think the trends are somewhat misleading though because I think a more tradtional Republican could carry GA and TX by 8 to 10.

[Adam Griffin]

One little nugget for Democrats even in this poll:

Down-ballot Republicans have likewise earned high marks, with voters selecting Republicans by a 47/42% margin on the generic ballot for the state House.

Republicans won the State House elections statewide by 8.7 (and State Senate by 8.8 ) in 2018.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia will be competitive, clearly, but I do fear that it's Republican floor is going to be too stubborn.

I think it's the same boat as Texas. Drifing D but still Lean R state. Trump should win both by around 5 to 6. I do think the trends are somewhat misleading though because I think a more tradtional Republican could carry GA and TX by 8 to 10.

Georgia will vote several points to Texas' left. Georgia will probably be won by about three points for Trump at most, honestly.

[S019]

Georgia will be competitive, clearly, but I do fear that it's Republican floor is going to be too stubborn.

I think it's the same boat as Texas. Drifing D but still Lean R state. Trump should win both by around 5 to 6. I do think the trends are somewhat misleading though because I think a more tradtional Republican could carry GA and TX by 8 to 10.

Trump won GA by 5.16% in 2016, color me skeptical, that he does better than that or similar to that, GA is a pure tossup, not Lean R.

[pbrower2a]

It's funny that such an over-the-top memo is reporting such unimpressive numbers for its funders.

If you are a Republican these days you have plenty to sugarcoat.