Rate MN-07 without Fischbach

[Greedo punched first]

Rate MN-07 if Fischbach isn't the GOP nominee.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt D

[Greedo punched first]

Lean D

[LiberalDem19]

I think it's a toss up either way. I don't think Fischbach is as popular out there as people think. Remember, when she ran with Pawlenty, the ticket couldn't even carry her own state senate district, and she had been in office since 1996. CD7 Republicans tend to be pretty anti-establishment, and Fischbach gives off some country club Republican vibes imo

[Greedo punched first]

Trump endorses Fischbach. Does she win the primary?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Fischbach isn't a particularly strong candidate. I guess she is in the sense that she prevents a total joke from being the nominee but I haven't seen any evidence she's particularly stronger than any other generic state legislator. For one she's not from the part of the district she would need to be to cut strongly into Peterson's personal vote amongst normally Republican voters. She may not have to in order to win, but that's where I'd be looking to see if a candidate is notably strong.

[morgieb]

Yeah Fischbach isn't the reason why I think Peterson loses. Simply put at R+12 any Republican that isn't a complete joke should win.

[Greedo punched first]

Would Peterson beat a nobody joke candidate like Hughes?

[Gracile]

Lean R, about the same as with Fischbach. It's hard to overstate how tenuous a position Peterson is in.

[voice_of_resistance]

I'm in the minority here, but my mind tells me Peterson loses but my gut tells me he'll win one last time. I don't see Biden doing worse than Hillary in MN-07, unlike in a district like KY-05 or WV-03. If Biden can keep Hillary's margins in the district or only decrease by a few, (maybe to Trump +34 instead of +31), Peterson survives.

[Joseph Cao]

Peterson's margins have been declining for several cycles now. It isn't as if that trend would abruptly halt or reverse just because Fischbach (who by all accounts was not exactly a stellar Lieutenant Governor, and seems only barely above replacement-level for a number of reasons already stated upthread) doesn't run, especially in a presidential cycle where whatever WWC appeal Biden has is probably going to be fairly muted and by itself may not halt the rurals' continued slide away from Democrats.

If Trump ends up publicly endorsing the R nominee in this district in the general, even Dave Hughes would probably make it a Tossup. Any halfway competent GOP candidate, of which there would be plenty if Fischbach didn't run, makes it Tilt R provided they run a decent campaign.

[Xing]

I honestly don’t think Peterson wins unless his opponent is a complete joke.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R with Fishbach, Lean R with a random state legislator or Hughes, Tilt D (but very filppable) with pretty much anyone else.

Peterson should probably retire now.

Also, the Minnesota filing deadline hasn't actually passed yet. If a Justice Dem is theoretically going around collecting signatures (or has been for some time) Peterson would be a natural target for them, with "A" rating from the NRA, pro-life stance, support for Saudi invasion of Yemen, and opposition to impeaching President Trump.

[😥]

Lean D, with Fischbach Tossup/Tilt D

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Safe R with Fishbach, Lean R with a random state legislator or Hughes, Tilt D (but very filppable) with pretty much anyone else.

Peterson should probably retire now.

Also, the Minnesota filing deadline hasn't actually passed yet. If a Justice Dem is theoretically going around collecting signatures (or has been for some time) Peterson would be a natural target for them, with "A" rating from the NRA, pro-life stance, support for Saudi invasion of Yemen, and opposition to impeaching President Trump.

A Trump +30 district is not a “natural target” for anyone wanting to primary out a Democrat incumbent, lol

[Greedo punched first]

Is Fischbach the likely nominee? What are the chances of an upset?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Safe R with Fishbach, Lean R with a random state legislator or Hughes, Tilt D (but very filppable) with pretty much anyone else.

Peterson should probably retire now.

Also, the Minnesota filing deadline hasn't actually passed yet. If a Justice Dem is theoretically going around collecting signatures (or has been for some time) Peterson would be a natural target for them, with "A" rating from the NRA, pro-life stance, support for Saudi invasion of Yemen, and opposition to impeaching President Trump.

Nah, muah boi Collin is gonna to go down swinging till the end.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R with or without her. It's going to be hard for any Democratic incumbent to win in a district the equivalent of South Dakota PVI wise with Trump running simultaneously. Unlike in 2016, when Democrats like Walz overperformed Hillary massively and loads of Republicans like Phillips overperformed Trump massively, we're unlikely to see that kind of separation this time.

[Greedo punched first]

Lean R with or without her. It's going to be hard for any Democratic incumbent to win in a district the equivalent of South Dakota PVI wise with Trump running simultaneously. Unlike in 2016, when Democrats like Walz overperformed Hillary massively and loads of Republicans like Phillips overperformed Trump massively, we're unlikely to see that kind of separation this time.

You think a joke like Collis, Novak, or Sherman would beat Peterson, despite having less name recognition than Hughes?