Predict North Carolina's margin
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Trump +5 or more		  
#2
Trump +4		  
#3
Trump +3		  
#4
Trump +2		  
#5
Trump +1		  
#6
Trump by less than 1		  
#7
Biden by less than 1		  
#8
Biden +1		  
#9
Biden +2		  
#10
Biden +3		  
#11
Biden +4		  
#12
Biden +5 or more		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 69

Author Topic: Predict North Carolina's margin  (Read 712 times)
SnowLabrador
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« on: May 02, 2020, 09:51:30 AM »
My guess is Biden by a little over 1%.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2020, 09:56:51 AM »
« Edited: May 02, 2020, 10:03:38 AM by ProgressiveModerate »
It'll be close but Trump +1 for now but that could easily change. Even though Hillary ddin't do great there in 2016, Biden is polling pretty well early on, which is different than 2016 where Hillary got a last minute polling boost in NC much later on. Also, NC is trending left; it shifted left in 2016 despite Clinton's poor performance. Biden is a good fit for the state as he's the establishment (which the banking cities will like), and he has good apeal to the African American communities. I'm keeping Trump as a slight favorite because Republicans tend to get lucky on a lot of things
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2020, 10:10:57 AM »
Biden plus 3
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2020, 10:26:50 AM »
Trump +1, it'll be closer then 2016 because of higher black turnout but Biden does poorly with younger voters which I think will lead to him underperforming in Orange County.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2020, 10:30:05 AM »
Biden by 1--and Cunningham pulls it out as well.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2020, 11:24:52 AM »
Quote from: Georgia Swing on May 02, 2020, 10:30:05 AM
Biden by 1--and Cunningham pulls it out as well.

I do hope that Cunningham wins. This could be the race that decides senate control.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2020, 11:26:36 AM »
Quote from: Asenath Waite on May 02, 2020, 11:24:52 AM
Quote from: Georgia Swing on May 02, 2020, 10:30:05 AM
Biden by 1--and Cunningham pulls it out as well.

I do hope that Cunningham wins. This could be the race that decides senate control.

Dems are favored in Senate, since Trump polls have tumbled
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2020, 12:55:47 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on May 02, 2020, 11:26:36 AM
Quote from: Asenath Waite on May 02, 2020, 11:24:52 AM
Quote from: Georgia Swing on May 02, 2020, 10:30:05 AM
Biden by 1--and Cunningham pulls it out as well.

I do hope that Cunningham wins. This could be the race that decides senate control.

Dems are favored in Senate, since Trump polls have tumbled

Good, here's hoping it sticks
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2020, 03:19:00 PM »
Biden +1 or 2.... Cooper's lead is so huge. I can't imagine that many Cooper/Trump voters in this day and age to keep Trump afloat here.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2020, 03:28:58 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2020, 03:32:11 PM by ProgressiveModerate »
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on May 02, 2020, 03:19:00 PM
Biden +1 or 2.... Cooper's lead is so huge. I can't imagine that many Cooper/Trump voters in this day and age to keep Trump afloat here.
They'll be plenty. Governors races aren't super partisan and Cooper is pretty moderate (so is Biden but the media will make him more progressive). Also, Cooper hasn't had any huge scandal agaisnt him. NC polling is also pretty bad. If polling shows Cooper ahead there by 8 now, it'll probably narrow up to 3 points by election day, or could even become +13. The NC polling has been all over the place so far it's hard to pinpoint where it truly is right now. I see Biden + 7 and then Trump + 5 polls.
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Old Man Willow
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2020, 03:48:59 PM »
Trump +3, 51-48.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2020, 04:00:32 PM »
Trump +0.7
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2020, 06:10:54 PM »
Trump wins by about two points.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2020, 07:47:27 PM »
Voted Biden +5 or more in the poll by accident, think it'll be Biden +1 or so.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2020, 07:50:17 PM »
Biden +1 if it was held today
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S019
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2020, 12:45:32 AM »
Biden+1
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2020, 05:15:41 AM »
Trump +2 for now.

I have  honestly been very bullish on this state leaning Republican at the presidential level and I'd love to see people change my mind. Firstly, Hillary targeted the state quite heavily but failed to put in a good performance there. Areas of the state are turning Democratic quickly but Republican areas in the eastern and western regions of the state are also getting redder. These are some decently populated counties too which along with rural areas can more than offset Democratic gains in Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham, Guilford, Forsyth, Orange, etc. Republicans have also been outpacing Democrats in voter registration pretty consistently(however there is no doubt some of that is southern Democrats who are really Republicans switching registration). Unaffiliated voters have been gaining quite quickly too which makes things somewhat more up in the air and makes me question my take but I think the GOP will carry the state in the president's race, lose the Governorship, and then the Senate is a tossup.

Anybody want to refute this? I'd love to be wrong lol.
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MARGINS6729
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2020, 07:20:16 AM »
I'm serious lol.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2020, 12:09:48 PM »
<2 points to the right of the nation. If Biden replicates Clinton PV numbers, I think he pulls off a narrow win in NC.
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