Rate Montgomery County, Ohio

[MARGINS6729]

Where do you think this purple swing county is leaning right now?

[Frenchrepublican]

Pure Tossup

Probably the only county in Ohio which could realistically flip from Trump to Biden.

[😥]

Lean D

[MARGINS6729]

I voted for  tossup although I think Biden can flip Trumbull County blue but still lose the state and the same goes for this county.

[here2view]

Tilt D. Brown won by 12 in 2018 while Cordray lost by 0.1%.

I'd say Biden by 3 or 4 points.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Who won it in 2016?

[Calthrina950]

Who won it in 2016?

Trump, by less than a point.

Tilt D. Brown won by 12 in 2018 while Cordray lost by 0.1%.

I'd say Biden by 3 or 4 points.

Cordray lost to DeWine by 4% in 2018, while Clinton lost to Trump by 8%. I would say that Montgomery County is probably a Tossup, but Biden could very well flip it, even though Trump will carry Ohio as a whole again.

[Bidenworth2020]

Who won it in 2016?

Trump, by less than a point.

Tilt D. Brown won by 12 in 2018 while Cordray lost by 0.1%.

I'd say Biden by 3 or 4 points.

Cordray lost to DeWine by 4% in 2018, while Clinton lost to Trump by 8%. I would say that Montgomery County is probably a Tossup, but Biden could very well flip it, even though Trump will carry Ohio as a whole again.

Important to keep in mind that while Biden is likely to do worse than Cordray did in 2018, this particular county's democratic base consists of many low-propensity African American voters who only turn out in presidential years. With that being said, Cordray probably won some Trump voters that will stick with him, so tossup seems appropriate.

[Calthrina950]

Who won it in 2016?

Trump, by less than a point.

Tilt D. Brown won by 12 in 2018 while Cordray lost by 0.1%.

I'd say Biden by 3 or 4 points.

Cordray lost to DeWine by 4% in 2018, while Clinton lost to Trump by 8%. I would say that Montgomery County is probably a Tossup, but Biden could very well flip it, even though Trump will carry Ohio as a whole again.

Important to keep in mind that while Biden is likely to do worse than Cordray did in 2018, this particular county's democratic base consists of many low-propensity African American voters who only turn out in presidential years. With that being said, Cordray probably won some Trump voters that will stick with him, so tossup seems appropriate.

This is a legitimate point, and as we know, the decline in black turnout in many of the country's major metropolitan areas (i.e. Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia) contributed to Clinton's defeat last time. I also remember seeing a CBS News report shortly before the election in which a black voter in Ohio (I believe it was Cleveland) said that there wasn't much enthusiasm for Clinton there. That undoubtedly played a role in Trump's victory in Montgomery County. However, Rob Portman won the county by nearly 20% over Ted Strickland, and Cordray still lost the county even though he outperformed Clinton. This suggests that it is not guaranteed to flip back to Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely Trump, OH is moving R

[lfromnj]

Its not a "decline" in black turnout it was just a reversion to the mean after Barack Obama who actually increased it in 2012, it was absurd to expect Clinton to do as well.

[TDAS04]

Tilt Biden

[Frenchrepublican]

Who won it in 2016?

Trump, by less than a point.

Tilt D. Brown won by 12 in 2018 while Cordray lost by 0.1%.

I'd say Biden by 3 or 4 points.

Cordray lost to DeWine by 4% in 2018, while Clinton lost to Trump by 8%. I would say that Montgomery County is probably a Tossup, but Biden could very well flip it, even though Trump will carry Ohio as a whole again.

Important to keep in mind that while Biden is likely to do worse than Cordray did in 2018, this particular county's democratic base consists of many low-propensity African American voters who only turn out in presidential years. With that being said, Cordray probably won some Trump voters that will stick with him, so tossup seems appropriate.

Cordray probably lost it in big parts because DeWine is from the Dayton Area.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Tossup