Pew: Biden +2 overall, Trump +2 in battleground states

[LimoLiberal]

Nationwide
Biden - 47
Trump - 45

Battleground states
Trump - 47
Biden - 45

https://www.people-press.org/2020/04/16/the-2020-election-and-congress/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt +2 in battleground states

[Gracile]

"Battleground states" grouped altogether is a poor metric (and it looks like they didn't even specify which states qualify as such). It tells us little about how individual states will vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna perform good in Appalachia except VA, and Biden is gonna do well in the Sunbelt, AZ, TX, FL due to he only gets 10 percent of the Latino vote

[Ronnie]

"Battleground states" grouped altogether is a poor metric (and it looks like they didn't even specify which states qualify as such). It tells us little about how individual states will vote.

They actually did define the battleground states:

[Bidenworth2020]

Interesting poll. Seems to be an outlier, but I think it's a pretty high quality pollster.

[Skill and Chance]

The battleground group includes NC (Trump+3.6)/AZ(Trump+3.6)/FL (Trump+1.2 and yuge by population) but none of the narrow Clinton 2016 states.  This is likely less of an EC disadvantage for Biden than for Clinton.  

[Gracile]

"Battleground states" grouped altogether is a poor metric (and it looks like they didn't even specify which states qualify as such). It tells us little about how individual states will vote.

Look harder instead of being so eager to criticize

https://www.people-press.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2020/04/PP_2020.04.16_Trump-and-COVID-19_FINAL.pdf

To identify battleground states for the November presidential election, researchers consulted several experts’ forecasts
 (including Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Nate Cohn’s New York Times ratings) to come up with a categorization of each state as either likely to back the Democrat (Blue/Lean blue), likely to back the Republican (Red/lean Red), or a “battleground state.” The specific states in each category can be found in the accompanying table.

Page 31

I apologize for not looking more carefully, but my point still stands. There are likely non-insignificant differences between those six states that it would be more useful to conduct thorough, stand-alone polls rather than grouping them and inferring results from that.

[AGA]

Can we not have polls that just show the results for "battleground states" and instead have numbers for individual states?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is at 43 percent approvals and 49 percent disapprovals

[The Mikado]

I like Pew and I generally think they're a quality pollster.

I don't like "Battleground polls." If those six states grouped together are Trump 47 Biden 45, that really tells me nothing. For all I know, Trump could be killing it in one of those states and it skews the whole group. There's really no way of telling.

[wbrocks67]

This poll only has Biden up 9 with women which seems.. off, just like the battleground #s.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I like Pew and I generally think they're a quality pollster.

I don't like "Battleground polls." If those six states grouped together are Trump 47 Biden 45, that really tells me nothing. For all I know, Trump could be killing it in one of those states and it skews the whole group. There's really no way of telling.

Very true. The Iowa or Ohio alone could be enough to muddy waters here.

I remember that Pew used to be among the best polling companies, and then in 2016 they seemed to really drop the ball (which, to be fair, many did) however I'm not so sure that they've redeemed themselves as other firms have recently.

[Eraserhead]

Obviously things could shift dramatically one way or the other with all of the insanity going on but the signs are pointing towards a close race.

[CookieDamage]

I like Pew and I generally think they're a quality pollster.

I don't like "Battleground polls." If those six states grouped together are Trump 47 Biden 45, that really tells me nothing. For all I know, Trump could be killing it in one of those states and it skews the whole group. There's really no way of telling.

Very true. The Iowa or Ohio alone could be enough to muddy waters here.

I remember that Pew used to be among the best polling companies, and then in 2016 they seemed to really drop the ball (which, to be fair, many did) however I'm not so sure that they've redeemed themselves as other firms have recently.

Iowa and Ohio are included in the red states, not battlegrounds.

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously things could shift dramatically one way or the other with all of the insanity going on but the signs are pointing towards a close race.

Yes, I'm a bit surprised how close most of the polls are right now.  Honestly, if Biden can't take a clear October 2008 style lead right now, I have to think Trump is still favored.  It's quite unlikely the atmosphere in the country will be more negative in November than it is right now. 

[forgotten manatee]

Obviously things could shift dramatically one way or the other with all of the insanity going on but the signs are pointing towards a close race.

Yes, I'm a bit surprised how close most of the polls are right now.  Honestly, if Biden can't take a clear October 2008 style lead right now, I have to think Trump is still favored.  It's quite unlikely the atmosphere in the country will be more negative in November than it is right now. 

We're at the beginning of this crisis, not the end. An economic shock worse than the Great Recession isn't going to have magically resolved itself by the end of the year. And there's no guarantee we won't see follow-on waves of COVID. The game has changed for Trump, permanently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump cant even lead in a poll favored towards him, OH is a swing state

[GMantis]

The battleground group includes NC (Trump+3.6)/AZ(Trump+3.6)/FL (Trump+1.2 and yuge by population) but none of the narrow Clinton 2016 states.  This is likely less of an EC disadvantage for Biden than for Clinton.  

Considering that Trump won those six states by about 1.5%, this is actually a pretty good results for him from the point of view of advantage in the EC.