What month will you feel confident in predicting the POTUS winner?

[°Leprechaun]

I won't know for certain until at least November (or later if it is like 2000), so I would guess November.
It's early. This is a chance to predict when you think you might feel confident.
Many of you might be like me and think that the election will be close, others might think that we'll be able to call it before November.

Some may even feel that they know what the exact map will look like. I suspect that will be small.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Probably pretty late, like November. This election seems like it will be a nail-biter, and this cycle has proven thus far that a lot can change very fast. I won't truly feel confident until after I see the results, because 2016 taught us anything could happen. Plus the battle-ground is smaller than ever so it'll come down to the same few states which one month will be polling in Biden's favor and then the next month they'll be polling in Trump's favor. Right now, I think Biden has the slighest edge but it's still anyone's guess at this point.

[They not like us]

November 4th once a winner is called.

[here2view]

Around November 10th when Arizona's results are finalized

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm usually able to tell pretty early on election night (once some rural results come in) who will likely win. This was especially true in 2016 when I basically thought Clinton was doomed when comparing her rural performance to that of Obama. In terms of month, we usually have a pretty good idea by early November unless polls are very close in all the key states.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Predictability has not been a characteristic of this cycle, so November.

[AGA]

If I learned anything from 2016, never.

[The Other Castro]

December.

[ProudModerate2]

Have a good idea in late October.

[BlueGrassKentuckian]

Early/late into election night.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Probably September. I think we will have a good idea of how this crisis is going to shape the economy and public opinion by mid-September.

[Senator Spark]

October

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mark Kelly has already cracked the red wall by putting AZ in play and along with CO, NV, and NM, after McCain will become a Dem state

[MABA 2020]

There's literally no point in making a prediction in November right on the election like some of you are saying. You have to be willing to take a chance and maybe be wrong every once and a while, which is why I can confidently predict now that Joe Biden will win.

[brucejoel99]

8:00pm on November 3rd.

[PSOL]

Taking the risk and saying that Trump will win.

[Mr. Smith]

Tell me what the news is in the last week.

Wherever the October Surprise falls determines who loses.

[Blue3]

I don’t know how anyone can be confident until the results are known, after 2016. And that’s not even including what other unexpected things might happen, from FBI mishandling to Hurricane Sandy to Bank Collapse to Hanging Chads.

[Pericles]

I can probably get a good sense after the conventions (or that point in the race if actual conventions do not go ahead), though given how 2016 shifted very late against Clinton I'll be uncertain until days before the election. And even then, until the results actually come in, me and everyone else here could be wrong.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I'm usually able to tell pretty early on election night (once some rural results come in) who will likely win. This was especially true in 2016 when I basically thought Clinton was doomed when comparing her rural performance to that of Obama. In terms of month, we usually have a pretty good idea by early November unless polls are very close in all the key states.

I remember watching the early FL results in 2016. One commentator was looking at how Hillary was doing better than Obama 2012 in Duval county, Orange county, Hillsborough county, Miami Dade and Broward counties. Trump's FL win was based on his blowouts in exurban central FL and SW FL.

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm usually able to tell pretty early on election night (once some rural results come in) who will likely win. This was especially true in 2016 when I basically thought Clinton was doomed when comparing her rural performance to that of Obama. In terms of month, we usually have a pretty good idea by early November unless polls are very close in all the key states.

I remember watching the early FL results in 2016. One commentator was looking at how Hillary was doing better than Obama 2012 in Duval county, Orange county, Hillsborough county, Miami Dade and Broward counties. Trump's FL win was based on his blowouts in exurban central FL and SW FL.

I remember being downright shocked that Hillary lost Florida with the type of margins she posted in Dade and (to a lesser extent) Broward. Then again, she did win a lot more votes than Obama in the state.

[538Electoral]

October.

[morgankingsley]

November 2