While a 3 point margin is good for Biden what makes me worried is that he’s only polling in the 46-48% range. Hillary in 2016 polled at 47% in Michigan on RCP, while Trump polled at 43%. She seemingly had a 4 point margin, but in the actual election Hillary’s percentage remained stagnant at 47% while Trump made up the difference by winning 4% more than his polling average. The same phenomenon was seen in other states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Hillary performed pretty closely to her polling average on RCP but Trump overperformed. Now of course Biden isn’t Hillary, the Comey Letter was probably the reason why Trump made that extra 4 point of support in the first place from undecideds, but Biden can face controversy and baggage as well, and undecideds might just decide to stick with the devil they know. Unless Biden is going to do well with undecideds, I feel like we should be worried if Biden is still polling in the high 40s as the election nears...
Apples and oranges. The polls actually were pretty accurate in 2016 despite what people claim. I don't think Clinton or Trump were at 50% in the very late polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Late deciders ended up breaking for Trump by huge margins. I think the Comey letter could have possibly impacted that.
Fast forward 4 years and a huge amount of independents and democrats are suffering from Trump fatigue and are extremely anxious to get rid of him. Even I thought Trump was pretty entertaining in 2016 when he was attacking Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. It's old hat now.
