As to your first question, I am indeed talking about the DSM suburbs.
Good, can you be more specific with regard to this particular designation? Which counties bordering Polk and/or parts of Polk County are suburban, which ones are not? I certainly don’t profess to be an expert on Iowa politics (much less Des Moines geography), so maybe you can help me out here. It’s a genuine question because I’ve seen you refer to those DSM suburbs elsewhere and I know that suburban growth
has been somewhat steady in the Des Moines area, but I’m obviously not familiar with the specifics.
I'm not sure what is controversial about my claim that they are less flexible than suburbs like Chicago and Philadelphia, as the ones that moved toward Clinton like most suburban areas didn't do so by a whole lot, and some (like Warren) even moved toward Trump.
Other than the fact that drawing an analogy between the Des Moines suburbs and the Chicago or Philadelphia suburbs is… problematic for
several reasons, the area you are referring to is nowhere near populous enough for any purported over- or underperformance to have had a bearing on the final outcome considering that Trump won the state by 10 percentage points. Even if the suburbs that moved toward Clinton had done "so by a whole lot," Trump still would have won IA by 7-8 points at worst (probably 8 if we’re seriously using Chicago-sized suburbs as the new baseline).
Also, the very fact that they moved toward Clinton at all or barely shifted Republican when the entire state swung from Obama +6 to Trump +10 is telling in and of itself. If the shift in some of those counties had been replicated throughout the entire state, Trump would have lost IA.
That would imply an inflexibility that is greater than suburbs that moved further left than that ... no?
Or it would imply a "flexibility" because they bucked the trend of other suburban areas? Or maybe the suburbs that moved further left aren’t particularly "flexible," especially when they did so in a more Republican-friendly environment than 2012? "Flexibility" and "elasticity" can mean so much and so little, don’t you think?
Regarding your comment about the NW Iowa counties, I genuinely don't know what you are getting at. I specifically mentioned those counties as the traditional GOP base in the state, and Romney got the same margins as Trump in that area ... ignoring that I did not deny rural voters and small city voters were the main reason for the GOP shift (in fact ... I said they were...?), these NW IA voters are certainly not the reason; they were already in the fold. What percent of Trump's margin they provided is frankly irrelevant, as they are a constant in both elections and provide no insight into Democratic losses...?
What I was getting at is that three counties in NW Iowa (Lyon/Sioux/Plymouth) provided the GOP with a larger raw vote margin than the nine counties bordering Polk County combined; an example I adduced to demonstrate the electoral insignificance of the Des Moines suburbs in the 2016 presidential election in Iowa. Besides, a quick glance at the 2012 -> 2016 swing map would reveal to you that Romney did
not get the same margin as Trump even in NW Iowa, so "Romney got the same margins as Trump in that area" is a demonstrably false claim (NW Iowa very much
was part of the Democratic losses in rural/small-town Iowa, unless you count Plymouth as a suburb of Sioux City). Obviously Democrats suffered more severe losses in counties where Republicans had more room for improvement than in NW Iowa, but that was to be expected. I agree with your overall point that IA Democrats are extremely reliant on rural/small-town support, I just don’t understand what compelled you to bring up "suburban Des Moines" at all.
No offense on my end this time, but to categorize Story County as the "most suburban" is just intentionally false or ignorant of the county ... Iowa State University is there, it is fundamentally a college town community and its Democratic voting is not at all tied to any type of trends in our post-2012 environment (the relevant period to identify when Democrats started fading in the state).
A Democratic county
can be a blend of a university and suburban base, and the idea that a Democratic-trending county with high educational attainment is
not at all tied to the kinds of trends we’ve seen in "our post-2012 environment" is not particularly convincing. A quick Google search tells me that I’m apparently not the only one who has ascribed at least some "suburban character" to Story County, so I guess the more important question is whether it qualifies as the "most suburban" county, an assessment which apparently demonstrates embarrassing ignorance on my part? If so, the question I humbly pose to you is (once again) which county qualifies as the "most suburban" one if Story County does not? Dallas, which was one of two counties in the entire state to swing
and trend Democratic in 2016?
Regarding your summation sentence at the end, I did not - anywhere in my post - say it was the inflexible suburban voters of metro Des Moines that are driving a rightward shift in Iowa ... that would literally make no sense, as I am claiming they were Republican before and still pretty Republican now ... naturally, they couldn't drive a shift. So, that confuses me that you think I said that.
Interesting. Nowhere did I misrepresent your position by claiming that those counties were
driving the rightward shift in Iowa. My point was that you were clearly implying that they
contributed significantly to its Republican trend by bucking the same strong Democratic suburban trends we’ve seen in places like Chicago and Philadelphia.
I specifically and clearly stated that Democrats lost the state by losing rural and (much more importantly) small-city voters in Eastern Iowa that they used to win, and they haven't made up for it NEARLY enough by winning everyone's stereotype of the type of new voter they are attracting now a days (suburban voters) in Iowa.
1) How do you suggest they make up for a 10-point loss in the Des Moines suburbs (or in other "suburban" areas of the state, for that matter)? Where do they find "NEARLY" enough votes in those counties to offset Republican strength everywhere else?
2) The bolded part to me is a sign that you’re influenced by your personal feelings about larger shifts in the two parties' electoral coalitions and needed to vent your frustration in this thread (because no one was even talking about this before you brought it up).
