Rate MT Senate Race

[Mr. Smith]

Lean R, between Gianforte and Trump, Daines has a decent advantage just by association to them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, between Gianforte and Trump, Daines has a decent advantage just by association to them.

Bernie and Booker lost due to Obama forces like James Carville and Obama forces got moderates to unite behind Biden. If Booker had he stayed in could of defeated Biden in SC, after Biden was defeated in first three contests.

As MT Senate race, it's called split voting, Ducey was reelected Gov and Sinema won by 2 points.  We are gonna see split voting like KS is an R state and Bollier can beat Kobach, even if Trump win KS. Due to fact as MT Treasurer stated folksy populism females like Ernst, SMC and Kelly of KS

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lean R, between Gianforte and Trump, Daines has a decent advantage just by association to them.

Bernie and Booker lost due to Obama forces like James Carville and Obama forces got moderates to unite behind Biden. If Booker had he stayed in could of defeated Biden in SC, after Biden was defeated in first three contests.

As MT Senate race, it's called split voting, Ducey was reelected Gov and Sinema won by 2 points.  We are gonna see split voting like KS is an R state and Bollier can beat Kobach, even if Trump win KS. Due to fact as MT Treasurer stated folksy populism females like Ernst, SMC and Kelly of KS

> barbara bollier

> folksy populism

[MT Treasurer]

Lol yeah, "local D strength" in Gallatin County, which as recently as 2006 voted for the losing Republican candidate and almost provided Jon Tester with his entire margin of victory in 2018. Next thing you’ll say is that the "Maryland Matt" moniker was the reason Democrats had some of their best results in history in Bozeman, Kalispell, and the outskirts of Missoula in a competitive statewide race. 

What a bunch of ridiculous takes in this thread. Daines might win, but there’s no way in hell he beats Bullock by a Young vs. Bayh margin. He’s not some electoral deity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D

[Mr. Smith]

Lol yeah, "local D strength" in Gallatin County, which as recently as 2006 voted for the losing Republican candidate and almost provided Jon Tester with his entire margin of victory in 2018. Next thing you’ll say is that the "Maryland Matt" moniker was the reason Democrats had some of their best results in history in Bozeman, Kalispell, and the outskirts of Missoula in a competitive statewide race. 

What a bunch of ridiculous takes in this thread. Daines might win, but there’s no way in hell he beats Bullock by a Young vs. Bayh margin. He’s not some electoral deity.

Probably not, but RoJo v. Feingold is hardly out of the question either.

[Heir of Camelot]

Lol yeah, "local D strength" in Gallatin County, which as recently as 2006 voted for the losing Republican candidate and almost provided Jon Tester with his entire margin of victory in 2018. Next thing you’ll say is that the "Maryland Matt" moniker was the reason Democrats had some of their best results in history in Bozeman, Kalispell, and the outskirts of Missoula in a competitive statewide race.  

What a bunch of ridiculous takes in this thread. Daines might win, but there’s no way in hell he beats Bullock by a Young vs. Bayh margin. He’s not some electoral deity.

Rob Quist put up amazing results in Kalispell (he won the in town precincts if I'm not mistaken) as well and it's my opinion that his local appeal made Flathead residents more comfortable voting Democrat as 2018 continued this trend.

Everyone likes to further the narrative that Rob Quist was a "flawed" candidate but current Montana Congressional campaigns continue to study how he took the vote from R+20 to R+5.5 in a matter of months (a nearly 15 point swing) in a low turnout election in May.

Kathleen Williams only moved the needle another .9 points and she got to run in a blue wave, high turnout midterm election on Tester's coattails.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am optimistic now, Bullock is gonna win on Biden's coattails

[Pericles]

Everyone likes to further the narrative that Rob Quist was a "flawed" candidate but current Montana Congressional campaigns continue to study how he took the vote from R+20 to R+5.5 in a matter of months (a nearly 15 point swing) in a low turnout election in May.

To be fair, lots of Democrats were doing that in special elections at the time. Far more important than candidate quality was that Trump and congressional Republicans were unpopular and the Democratic base was energised.

[Heir of Camelot]

Not necessarily in Montana though. Trump still has a favorable approval rating here. How, I have no idea. Interestingly, Daines is currently underwater here and has been for over a year.

[Brittain33]

Toss-up. Bullock isn’t stupid and he wouldn’t jump into this race without polling showing him with a good shot. And PPP already has this race tied.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have excellent candidates all but 1 race and that is TX and if Franken beats Greenfield in the primary, he will run a competetive race against Ernst