Emerson Missouri - 48% Biden 44% Sanders

[ShamDam]

Can we have some humility here?

The correct answer is that this poll looks like an outlier. But that’s how we felt about the Biden surge numbers, and the dynamics of this coming down to a two person race are unpredictable. Guess what: polling error ain’t gonna systematically underestimate Biden for the whole election. And there have been enough surprises already that we should proceed with caution.

If this ends up being Bernie’s best poll here, he probably loses MO in a landslide. But if he *did* fight his way to a draw in an outer-southern state, suddenly that’s one fewer place where Biden can rack up the score.

[mgop]

terrible numbers for biden, considering it's southern state

[Eraserhead]

I'm pretty skeptical of this, but if it were true, then Sanders would not be nearly as dead as Super Tuesday would seem to indicate. There is a small chance that the Democratic electorate may get some buyer's remorse with Biden at some point. Traditionally, you'd see everyone start to fall in line around the nominee, but the Democratic electorate hasn't been as willing to do that the last few primary cycles...

I think that there will be some buyer's remorse. It's not over yet, but Bernie has like 10% or less chance of even forcing a contested convention much less getting a majority (because there's no way he'd win a contested convention unless he's ahead by a lot)

There's not going to be a contested convention. There are only two people (who matter) left in the race. If Sanders wins, it'll be because he got a majority of the delegates. That's almost certainly not going to happen but it's still more likely than neither of them getting a majority before the convention now.

[wbrocks67]

Considering Missouri is 21% black and 3% hispanic, I have a hard time seeing the "Non-white" vote as Biden 50-36.

[lfromnj]

Considering Missouri is 21% black and 3% hispanic, I have a hard time seeing the "Non-white" vote as Biden 50-36.

Well most of the black population is in two cities that are more northern or midwestern which bernie actually does good in.

[Pollster]

Weighting by a 2016 primary turnout model likely misses the Romney/Clinton voters who appear to be voting in the primary this time around, and in large numbers for Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Weighting by a 2016 primary turnout model likely misses the Romney/Clinton voters who appear to be voting in the primary this time around, and in large numbers for Biden.

And the Sanders/Trump voters who are voting solidly Republican now.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Weighting by a 2016 primary turnout model likely misses the Romney/Clinton voters who appear to be voting in the primary this time around, and in large numbers for Biden.

And the Sanders/Trump voters who are voting solidly Republican now.

Not enough of them to matter that much.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering Missouri is 21% black and 3% hispanic, I have a hard time seeing the "Non-white" vote as Biden 50-36.

Well most of the black population is in two cities that are more northern or midwestern which bernie actually does good in.

Well, he did good in them. We don't know if that disparity will continue this year. We have yet to get an indication of how northern urban voters of color will vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Honestly, I'm discounting all polling at this point.  It's clear from Super Tuesday that the models are dramatically underestimating Biden's support.  Change Research +20 in Virginia was a "shock poll" and Biden won it by 33 points just 18 hours later.  They also had Biden losing Maine by 20 points and he won it a day later.

What happened was that Joementum was at such an acceleration post-SC the polling couldn't keep up.

[Podgy the Bear]

Missouri will be a blowout for Biden--campaigning there this evening and then in Mississippi tomorrow.  Margin will be somewhere between this and the Remington Poll.

 Sanders has retreated to Michigan--effectively writing off two states that will end up with large chunks of delegates to Joe.