SC & Super Tuesday Pre-Thread

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

Paging ExtremeRepublican

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I totally think those southern tier suburban counties are long term (10-15 years) future Democratic counties.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

Paging ExtremeRepublican

One thing that is keeping some level of interest in Republican primaries is that county-level primaries are also going on (the congressional ones will be in August).  In many counties, the GOP primaries are tantamount to the general elections.  That is true of Williamson County, but all of Williamson's local primaries were unopposed, which may or may not be the case elsewhere.  Plus, people might pay more attention to local politics in more rural counties where it feels more personal.

Additionally (and this is purely speculative), it wouldn't surprise me if higher-income Republicans, such as those in Williamson County were more willing to vote tactically in the Democratic primary for either the one they hate the least or the one they think would be easiest to beat.

As for the GE, I really am not expecting a significant shift in Williamson County this year.  Using 2016 presidential results as a baseline, Williamson County actually trended slightly Republican relative to Tennessee as a whole in 2018.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Does MA have early voting?

I'm wondering about how much of a boost Buttigieg leaving might give Warren there.

[Politics Fan]

Does MA have early voting?

I'm wondering about how much of a boost Buttigieg leaving might give Warren there.

Yes Massachusetts has early voting.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Does MA have early voting?

I'm wondering about how much of a boost Buttigieg leaving might give Warren there.

Yes Massachusetts has early voting.

Is there a way to see how many have already voted?

[Politics Fan]

Does MA have early voting?

I'm wondering about how much of a boost Buttigieg leaving might give Warren there.

Yes Massachusetts has early voting.

Is there a way to see how many have already voted?

Looked on the SOS site doesn't seem like they will publish any stats until after the Primary. The only stats up were for 2016 and 2018. Also couldn't find anything on Google either.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I totally think those southern tier suburban counties are long term (10-15 years) future Democratic counties.

Possibly, Williamson county swung heavily towards Clinton and Bredesen.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I can't imagine this actually happening, but that map is the modern-day Dem path to victory in TN. That's what would happen in a TN redux of Moore v Jones.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Enjoy

Thanks for posting and is an interesting Binary DEM vs PUB TO Map....

Now if you can pull together a map that looks at '16 vs '20 DEM PRIM EV by % that would be even cooler....

Update, I can only find ev data from the several biggest counties in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Enjoy

Thanks for posting and is an interesting Binary DEM vs PUB TO Map....

Now if you can pull together a map that looks at '16 vs '20 DEM PRIM EV by % that would be even cooler....

Update, I can only find ev data from the several biggest counties in 2016.

Yeah, this is the first year they've done reports on every county.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Enjoy

Thanks for posting and is an interesting Binary DEM vs PUB TO Map....

Now if you can pull together a map that looks at '16 vs '20 DEM PRIM EV by % that would be even cooler....

Update, I can only find ev data from the several biggest counties in 2016.

Yeah, this is the first year they've done reports on every county.

Ah bummer, I was really looking forward to getting started on that one, sorry nova :/ Thx for the info though

[Sbane]

Enjoy

Tarrant Democratic while Fort Bend is not is fascinating.

I believe the Republican primary for TX-22 is pretty heated and could be driving up Republican turnout in that district.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I totally think those southern tier suburban counties are long term (10-15 years) future Democratic counties.

No current trends wont last beyond this decade because the fact is by the early 2030s  the Republican party wont be recognizable to the current day Republican party and would be far more appealing to those types of places.

[iceman]

Why is the 2020 Super Tuesday so South-dominated? I kinda liked the arrangement of states in 2008, especially the super Tuesday wherein 24 states voted.

[RI]

Texas going 52-48 for Trump in the general is not an implausible outcome, although I think he does a few points better than that due to the boosted D primary turnout.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I can't imagine this actually happening, but that map is the modern-day Dem path to victory in TN. That's what would happen in a TN redux of Moore v Jones.

In a Democratic win, Knox and Robertson would almost certainly flip.  Democrats would come close in Williamson and Cheatham, but probably wind up just short.  A couple of the rural West Tennessee counties might stay Republican too.

A Democratic win probably would be Obama '12+Knox+Hamilton+Montgomery+Rutherford, with maybe one or two smaller counties as well.

https://twitter.com/htmldon/status/1233375799354351618?s=20

The Nashville suburban counties are very interesting.

I totally think those southern tier suburban counties are long term (10-15 years) future Democratic counties.

Possibly, Williamson county swung heavily towards Clinton and Bredesen.

Williamson did swing heavily in 2016, but not really 2018.  I don't think it's appropriate to compare 2018 to 2012 or 2014, because those took place in different political realities and just reflect what happened in 2016.  Here's the difference between Williamson and Tennessee as a whole for 2016 and 2018 races:

2016-HOUSE: 23 points to the right (W: R+51, TN: R+28) (i.e. the old reality)
2016-PRES: 9 points to the right (W: R+35, TN: R+26)
2018-GOV: 11 points to the right (W: R+32, TN: R+21)
2018-SEN: 8 points to the right (W: R+18, TN: R+11, rounding makes it 8 instead of 7)
2018-HOUSE: 11 points to the right (W: R+31, TN: R+20)

So, while it took a significant swing in 2016, going to only 9 points to the right of Tennessee, Williamson actually trended Republican relative to the state in two of the three races and only trended negligibly Democratic in the third.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also, this tweet tells a lot about why it would be misleading to judge what's happening in Williamson County by a primary that is only contested on one side.

https://twitter.com/mebraden/status/1233370094648143872
It actually feels to me like it's remarkable that Republicans are outperforming their 2004 in WillCo and are getting 24x the percentage of the vote of the 2012 Democrats.