TX-CNN: Tossup

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why believe this poll underestimates Trump, while not believing MI, PA and WI polls underestimate Trump?

Cause of the fact he’s winning college educated voters by 11 but losing non college educated voters which makes no sense looking at the 2016 and 2018 exit polls in Texas

Sounds like this poll is overestimating Trump, then, if he's winning educated voters.

Texas is going blue.  If not in this election, 2024 then.  Republicans have nothing to offer educated suburban voters.

If trump wins again yes TX will probably go blue in 2024 but won’t this time especially not with Bernie . Bernie entire past will be thrown at him and we haven’t even seen the worst parts yet .


Also no it’s not overestimating Trump , Trump won educated voters by 8 points in 2016 and non college by 10


I’m gonna end it on this , you hate the Russia part about Trump , well Bernie is even worse in that regard and he said good things about a far worse Russian regime

Bernie was worse about the USSR, a nation that hasn't existed for almost 30 years.  Trump is far worse on the actual regime that exists today and is trying to destroy our democracy.  I know which one concerns me more.

Bernie voted against sanctioning Russia

Sanders supported the 2014 Russian Sectoral Sanctions, which is by far the strongest current sanctions regime aimed against Russia.  He voted against sanctions in 2017, which were packed with Iran sanctions.  See below.  Even if you think Bernie is weak on Russia sanctions, he hasn't asked Russia to interfere in our elections or denied that they are doing so, which is what the current President does gleefully.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-statement-on-iran-and-russia-sanctions

"I am strongly supportive of the sanctions on Russia included in this bill. It is unacceptable for Russia to interfere in our elections here in the United States, or anywhere around the world. There must be consequences for such actions. I also have deep concerns about the policies and activities of the Iranian government, especially their support for the brutal Assad regime in Syria. I have voted for sanctions on Iran in the past, and I believe sanctions were an important tool for bringing Iran to the negotiating table. But I believe that these new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement that was signed between the United States, its partners and Iran in 2015. That is not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies. I think the United States must play a more even-handed role in the Middle East, and find ways to address not only Iran's activities, but also Saudi Arabia's decades-long support for radical extremism."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/


This what Trump has done against Russia too. Trump is far far weaker on the Saudis than he is with Russia and his Saudi policy is a far far bigger problem than his Russia policy . There is no way in hell im gonna vote for Bernie , I just can’t .


I won’t vote for Trump either but I will not vote for Bernie . Bernie is almost as bad as Corbyn, he just  hides his radicalism more and imo Corbyn is worse than Trump .

Trump didn't do anything in those examples with regards to sanctions that he wasn't required to do by law.  The decision on who specifically to target with sanctions is not made by him either.  It was widely reported at the time that the State Department released the statement expelling Russian Diplomats without Trump's approval, and he was furious about it.  The things happening against Russia in his administration are happen in despite Trump, not because of him.

He still did it , which is what matters . I will not vote for Bernie, I truly despise him in every possible way .

[Green Line]

Why believe this poll underestimates Trump, while not believing MI, PA and WI polls underestimate Trump?

Cause of the fact he’s winning college educated voters by 11 but losing non college educated voters which makes no sense looking at the 2016 and 2018 exit polls in Texas

Sounds like this poll is overestimating Trump, then, if he's winning educated voters.

Texas is going blue.  If not in this election, 2024 then.  Republicans have nothing to offer educated suburban voters.

If trump wins again yes TX will probably go blue in 2024 but won’t this time especially not with Bernie . Bernie entire past will be thrown at him and we haven’t even seen the worst parts yet .


Also no it’s not overestimating Trump , Trump won educated voters by 8 points in 2016 and non college by 10


I’m gonna end it on this , you hate the Russia part about Trump , well Bernie is even worse in that regard and he said good things about a far worse Russian regime

Bernie was worse about the USSR, a nation that hasn't existed for almost 30 years.  Trump is far worse on the actual regime that exists today and is trying to destroy our democracy.  I know which one concerns me more.

Bernie voted against sanctioning Russia

Sanders supported the 2014 Russian Sectoral Sanctions, which is by far the strongest current sanctions regime aimed against Russia.  He voted against sanctions in 2017, which were packed with Iran sanctions.  See below.  Even if you think Bernie is weak on Russia sanctions, he hasn't asked Russia to interfere in our elections or denied that they are doing so, which is what the current President does gleefully.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-statement-on-iran-and-russia-sanctions

"I am strongly supportive of the sanctions on Russia included in this bill. It is unacceptable for Russia to interfere in our elections here in the United States, or anywhere around the world. There must be consequences for such actions. I also have deep concerns about the policies and activities of the Iranian government, especially their support for the brutal Assad regime in Syria. I have voted for sanctions on Iran in the past, and I believe sanctions were an important tool for bringing Iran to the negotiating table. But I believe that these new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement that was signed between the United States, its partners and Iran in 2015. That is not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies. I think the United States must play a more even-handed role in the Middle East, and find ways to address not only Iran's activities, but also Saudi Arabia's decades-long support for radical extremism."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/


This what Trump has done against Russia too. Trump is far far weaker on the Saudis than he is with Russia and his Saudi policy is a far far bigger problem than his Russia policy . There is no way in hell im gonna vote for Bernie , I just can’t .


I won’t vote for Trump either but I will not vote for Bernie . Bernie is almost as bad as Corbyn, he just  hides his radicalism more and imo Corbyn is worse than Trump .

Trump didn't do anything in those examples with regards to sanctions that he wasn't required to do by law.  The decision on who specifically to target with sanctions is not made by him either.  It was widely reported at the time that the State Department released the statement expelling Russian Diplomats without Trump's approval, and he was furious about it.  The things happening against Russia in his administration are happen in despite Trump, not because of him.

He still did it , which is what matters . I will not vote for Bernie, I truly despise him in every possible way .

No, again, it does matter.  The sanctions were passed overwhelmingly by Congress.  He could have tried to obstruct their implementation, I suppose, which would be illegal.  He gets no credit for sanctions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why believe this poll underestimates Trump, while not believing MI, PA and WI polls underestimate Trump?

Cause of the fact he’s winning college educated voters by 11 but losing non college educated voters which makes no sense looking at the 2016 and 2018 exit polls in Texas

Sounds like this poll is overestimating Trump, then, if he's winning educated voters.

Texas is going blue.  If not in this election, 2024 then.  Republicans have nothing to offer educated suburban voters.

If trump wins again yes TX will probably go blue in 2024 but won’t this time especially not with Bernie . Bernie entire past will be thrown at him and we haven’t even seen the worst parts yet .


Also no it’s not overestimating Trump , Trump won educated voters by 8 points in 2016 and non college by 10


I’m gonna end it on this , you hate the Russia part about Trump , well Bernie is even worse in that regard and he said good things about a far worse Russian regime

Bernie was worse about the USSR, a nation that hasn't existed for almost 30 years.  Trump is far worse on the actual regime that exists today and is trying to destroy our democracy.  I know which one concerns me more.

Bernie voted against sanctioning Russia

Sanders supported the 2014 Russian Sectoral Sanctions, which is by far the strongest current sanctions regime aimed against Russia.  He voted against sanctions in 2017, which were packed with Iran sanctions.  See below.  Even if you think Bernie is weak on Russia sanctions, he hasn't asked Russia to interfere in our elections or denied that they are doing so, which is what the current President does gleefully.

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-statement-on-iran-and-russia-sanctions

"I am strongly supportive of the sanctions on Russia included in this bill. It is unacceptable for Russia to interfere in our elections here in the United States, or anywhere around the world. There must be consequences for such actions. I also have deep concerns about the policies and activities of the Iranian government, especially their support for the brutal Assad regime in Syria. I have voted for sanctions on Iran in the past, and I believe sanctions were an important tool for bringing Iran to the negotiating table. But I believe that these new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement that was signed between the United States, its partners and Iran in 2015. That is not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies. I think the United States must play a more even-handed role in the Middle East, and find ways to address not only Iran's activities, but also Saudi Arabia's decades-long support for radical extremism."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/09/25/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/amp/


This what Trump has done against Russia too. Trump is far far weaker on the Saudis than he is with Russia and his Saudi policy is a far far bigger problem than his Russia policy . There is no way in hell im gonna vote for Bernie , I just can’t .


I won’t vote for Trump either but I will not vote for Bernie . Bernie is almost as bad as Corbyn, he just  hides his radicalism more and imo Corbyn is worse than Trump .

Trump didn't do anything in those examples with regards to sanctions that he wasn't required to do by law.  The decision on who specifically to target with sanctions is not made by him either.  It was widely reported at the time that the State Department released the statement expelling Russian Diplomats without Trump's approval, and he was furious about it.  The things happening against Russia in his administration are happen in despite Trump, not because of him.

He still did it , which is what matters . I will not vote for Bernie, I truly despise him in every possible way .

No, again, it does matter.  The sanctions were passed overwhelmingly by Congress.  He could have tried to obstruct their implementation, I suppose, which would be illegal.  He gets no credit for sanctions.

Ok and They still happened which is the important part , not who you credit (unless Trump vetoed those bills and he got overriden). That shows that Trump won’t get his way on Russia and the opposite happens so I’m not afraid of Trump policy towards Russia.

I’m not really afraid of Bernie on that either . What I am afraid of is his absolutely terrible domestic agenda, his horrible immigration agenda and his super leftist foreign policy .

I’m gonna do what never Trumper Kasich will do and vote third party and yes that’s never Trump cause that means I’m not voting for him .

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Imagine telling someone in 2014 that the next Republican President would be on the verge of losing TX in his reelection bid.... and still have a 50-50 shot of holding WI.

Obama just 6 years before in 2008, won WI by 14 points, while losing TX by 11.

I want to believe.

[Suburbia]

Show me this in August and September....

[Hammy]

Another poll which shows that Joe Biden is the most electable Democrat in the race

How'd that work out for Electable Candidate Hillary Clinton? Everyone's in the margin of error and this poll is junk anyway since Trump's winning Texas by at least five points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish they would stop releasing polls like this that are going to get people's hopes up. Texas is not flipping this year, accept it. It's definitely moving leftward fast though! Republicans had better take note...actually never-mind, don't. Texas will always be safe R! Feel free to take it for granted!

[NOVA Green]

Logged on expecting to see a poll about Texas, and then waded through a page and half towards the end of the thread completely going off the rails....

Still, the reality is that 77% of the population of Texas lives in large Metro Areas, and as we have seen these areas are shifting dramatically and quickly towards the Democratic Party...

Think for example that in the 2008 GE by County POP:    (43.6% DEM- 55.4% PUB)   + 11.8% R

Harris County- 4.4 Million POP    1.2 Million Voters (50.5% DEM - 48.8% PUB)  +1.7% D
Dallas County- 2.5 Million POP    740k Voters         (57.1% DEM- 41.9% PUB)  +15.2% D
Tarrant County- 2.0 Million POP  630k Voters         (43.7% DEM- 55.4% PUB)   +11.7% R
Bexar County-  1.9 Million POP   527k Voters         (52.2% DEM- 46.7% PUB)   + 5.5% D
Travis County-  1.2 Million POP   400k Voters         (63.5% DEM- 34.3% PUB)   +29.2% D

Collin-     300k Voters  37-62 R       +25% R
El Paso-   185k Voters  66-33 D       +33% D
Hidalgo-   130k Voters  69-30 D       +39% D
Denton-   240k Voters  37-62 R        +25% R
Fort Bend- 200k Voters 49-51 R         +2% R
Montgomery- 160k Voters 23-76 R     +53% R


2016:

Harris- 1.3 Million Voters (54-42 D)    +12% D     +10% D swing from '08 to '16
Dallas- 770k Voters        (60-34 D)    +26% D     +11% D Swing from '08 to '16
Tarrant- 670k Voters      (43-52 R)     +9% R       + 3% D Swing from '08 to '16
Bexar-  595k Voters       (54-40 D)    +14% D      +8% D Swing from '08 to '16
Travis- 470k Voters        (66-27 D)    +39% D      +10% D Swing from '08 to '16


There numbers were accentuated in the 2018:

Harris-  1.2 Million Voters (58-41 D)   +17% D      +7% D swing from '16 to '18
Dallas-  730k Voters        (66-33 D)   +33% D       +7% D swing from '16 to '18
Tarrant- 630k Voters        (50-49 D)   +1% D         +4% D swing from '16 to '18
Bexar-  550k Voters         (59-40 D)   +19% D       +5% D swing from '16 to '18
Travis-  480k Voters         (74-25 D)   +49% D       +10% D swing from '16 to '18

Now I could keep doing down the lists in greater detail in terms of '16 and '18, but I think y'all get the point here...

Additionally look at the flip in Fort Bend County in '18 (+12% D), Williamson County (+3% D), Hays (+15% D), not to mention relatively small Cruz wins of 5-7% in Denton and Collins County.

We can debate how close Tejas will be in '20 against Biden/Bernie/Bloomberg, but to debate that Texas is not on the table in 2020 is a height of absolute insanity and denial of reality.

The context of the '18 TX-SEN election if anything indicates that some polling might well be undersampling heavily DEM electorates such as working-class Latinos who historically have tended to vote much more infrequently than Middle-Class Latinos for non PRES General Elections...

One could make an argument that opposed to the traditional CW about Texas, is that there may well be a number of voters who are not being polled, who are much more predisposed to vote DEM rather than PUB....

I lived in Metro Houston in Harris County for Four Years, narrowly escaping both major Hurricanes which devastated the region, and: La realidad es que los ciudadanos de las grandes ciudades de Texas tienen más en común que no.

The founding myth of the Republic of Texas was based upon common unity against a mutual foe, regardless of Country of Origin, ethnicity, nor religion.  (Remember the Alamo?)

We can debate about swings, registration and turnout among MUH College Educated Whites vs MUH growing Millennials, vs MUH increasing Latino % of voters, but the reality is that all of these are part of the equation, as well as the way in which the Metro areas of DFW, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are increasingly see all of their commonalities, while meanwhile the Gvt of the State of TX is neglecting their interests bcs of blind partisan ideology...

In closing... need to put on the legendary Bob Wills & the Texas Playboys that invented "Western Swing" way back in the '40s.

Yellow Rose of Texas

Naturally for Atlas political geeks, people can read all sorts of metaphors into this song... 

   

[SN2903]

Trump wins TX against Bernie by 12 to 15 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins TX against Bernie by 12 to 15 pts

No

[Sbane]

Trump wins TX against Bernie by 12 to 15 pts

And I assume you think it would be a tossup with Biden?

[President Johnson]

My predictions for Texas would be:

- Trump: 50.7%, Biden: 46.9%
- Trump: 51.2%, Bloomberg: 46.5%
- Trump: 51.9%, Bernie: 44.9%
- Trump: 52.0%, Buttigieg: 45.0%
- Trump: 52.9%, Warren: 44.2%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My predictions for Texas would be:

- Trump: 50.7%, Biden: 46.9%
- Trump: 51.2%, Bloomberg: 46.5%
- Trump: 51.9%, Bernie: 44.9%
- Trump: 52.0%, Buttigieg: 45.0%
- Trump: 52.9%, Warren: 44.2%

Cornyn is old, Hegar can beat  Cornyn, thus giving Bernie and Klobuchar a win in TX

[Sbane]

My predictions for Texas would be:

- Trump: 50.7%, Biden: 46.9%
- Trump: 51.2%, Bloomberg: 46.5%
- Trump: 51.9%, Bernie: 44.9%
- Trump: 52.0%, Buttigieg: 45.0%
- Trump: 52.9%, Warren: 44.2%

Look at the current numbers and think about who will be the better campaigner against Trump, Bernie or Biden? Look at Biden's weak campaign so far. They can go after Bernie all they want but he will continue to point out Trump and the Republican Senate are tools of the billionaire class.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump wins TX against Bernie by 12 to 15 pts

Sweatin' like a dog

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump wins TX against Bernie by 12 to 15 pts

Sweatin' like a dog

SN2903 doesnt believe that Bernie is leading in their own Fox polling Trump by 7 pts. They still believe that Trump is inevitable,   eventhough he was impeached for corruption.  They believe it's a 2004 election, more like a 2012 election

[pbrower2a]

Trash throw it out

Are people just not looking at the fact he’s losing non college voters while winning college votes by 11

1. College degrees are getting more commonplace. People without college degrees tend to be older (once one gets past 25. Note well -- as  in a business, one of the clearest signs of impending demise is that one's clientele is getting older unless the business simply replaces one set of elderly customers with another (let us say nursing homes which were full of people born in the 1890's in the 1970's and are now full of people born in the 1930's...) a company whose clientele is dying off is in trouble. A restaurant whose menu is attractive only to people over 60 must change its menu lest it be irrelevant -- and possibly bankrupt -- twenty years from now. If I am considering a career in restaurant management and I am rather young, then I would be leery of starting a career at Bob Evans... the reminiscence of an old farmhouse is becoming irrelevant to people who never lived on a farm or had a grandparent on a Midwestern farm -- and worse, the food is insipid, which is not the trend. (In the old days one used spices to hide the awfulness of bad food, but that is over).       

2. The non-college voters that Republicans are getting are white non-college voters who live in anti-intellectual cultures. Republicans are not winning under-educated blacks and Hispanics who dream of their kids getting good educations and getting out of certain poverty.

It could be that well-educated blacks and Hispanics have genuine care for those left behind in their communities. Well-educated white people have much less influence in the Mountain and Deep South where well-educated people are rarer.

3. Texas is approaching national norms in education and in vocational achievement. Texas used to be infamous for ill-educated, loudmouth rubes proud of their ignorance; that is over. Although Texas has huge distances between the giant cities, the rural areas are losing population. I assume that many of those are kids from small-farm families... or small farmers selling out. Texas is not as poor as the Mountain and Deep South. Texas used to be near the bottom of the list of demographics among the states, but not any more. As an example, Texans are now below average in smoking (heavy smoking is a strong negative as a social indicator) -- in contrast to neighboring Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas and such near-neighbors as Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee.

4. Although the suburbs are newer than those in the Rust Belt, the Northeast, and even California, those suburbs are beginning to take on urban characteristics. That means that Big Government becomes a necessity just for widening the roads to accommodating heavier traffic, expansion of schools, and enlarging the hospitals.  We are beginning to see a conflict between tax cuts and government spending.   

5. Texas has large minority populations hostile to the GOP. The Republican Party has done little for blacks or Mexican-Americans. And then comes Donald Trump, who mouths off racist memes. Oh-oh!

6. It could also be that the influence of the Bush family is waning in Texas politics. The elder Bush won Texas by 12.4% in 1988. I'm not going to discuss the elections of the 1990's because the third-party nominee was from Texas... but Dubya won the state by 21.3% in 2000 and by 22.3% in 2004 in close elections. An 11.6% margin for John McCain looks like a difference between having a favorite son and not having one -- or Obama being about 10% stronger a candidate nationwide than Kerry in 2004. It was back to a bit over 15% in 2012 for the margin between Obama and Romney... but inexplicably down to about 9% for Trump against Clinton.

Texas has usually straddled 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee since the 1980's. It was close for Bill Clinton, and if any recent Democratic nominee had a chance to win Texas it was he. So it was for Gore, Kerry, Obama, and Hillary Clinton.

Trump losing Texas indicates either (1) Texas approaching the national average in political orientation or (2) a catastrophic failure of the Trump Administration. I have seen polls showing Trump approval underwater in Texas, which is a very bad sign for the current President. 

[IceSpear]

Wait, did McGovern ever make Texas close? I forget.

[Badger]

Imagine telling someone in 2014 that the next Republican President would be on the verge of losing TX in his reelection bid.... and still have a 50-50 shot of holding WI.

Obama just 6 years before in 2008, won WI by 14 points, while losing TX by 11.

I want to believe.

So much has changed then in both States, though. Remember, Obama in 2008 lost Missouri by a fraction of a percent. Besides, Obama seriously over perform in 2008 in the Upper Midwest.

Good times.

[538Electoral]

Hmmm.