Questions about coronavirus.

[Grassroots]

Is COVID-19 deadly to everyone? Is it more dangerous than the flu, specifically H1N1 (which I got in elementary school), the last major global pandemic? Is there a specific age range on those at risk?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Is COVID-19 deadly to everyone?

---- No. The best epdimiological estimates are roughly a 1% fatality rate (with uncertainty between about 0.25% an 4%)

Is it more dangerous than the flu, specifically H1N1 (which I got in elementary school) the last major global pandemic?

---- In terms of fatality rate, very likely yes. It ending up like H1N1 is basically the very best case possible scenario, which is still perhaps theoretically possible, but is basically at the very low range of current estimates. For that to be the case there would have to be a very very large # of undetected mild cases. If this turns out to be the case, we will likely find out from serological studies which have not happened yet.

However, probably the bigger concern than the base fatality rate is the share of serious/critical cases, which is about 20-25% of confirmed cases. The problem there is that these people need an ICU and a ventilator... and there are only a total of 100k of those in the USA (many of which are needed for people with other conditions). So the big concern is if it spreads too much, hospital ICU capacity could be overwhelmed - this seems to be one of the things that made it particularly bad in Wuhan, when the medical system got overwhelmed there.

---- Is there a specific age range on those at risk?

Older = higher risk. Also male, smoker, and other pre-existing conditions/co-morbidities = higher risk. If you are young (under 30 or 40ish), you likely don't have to worry much about yourself dying from it - however you should be concerned about older people in your family/older people you know. And at least personally, while I am low risk for dying from it, I don't particularly want to get it either!

[GeneralMacArthur]

You're 19.  At worst you'll have flu-like symptoms.  Most likely you won't even know you have it.

[It’s so Joever]

Personally, I'm working from home tomorrow.  I have a cough right now, and who knows how badly its spread throughout Chicago as they're not testing for it.  I think its just 2-3 weeks until we have mass societal breakdown.

Way too pessimistic. At worst we will be in a China-esque situation.

[Sir Mohamed]

If you follow 3 major rules, your risk to get infected should be very low:

- Frequently wash hands. At least 20-30 seconds and use soap. Especially before touching your face or when coming home from work or somewhere else. Washing hands should be done anyway as prevention against influenza and other illnesses.

- Keep distance from people who cough and sneeze (at least 5 ft, better more).

- Avoid larger crowds if possible.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

You're 19.  At worst you'll have flu-like symptoms.  Most likely you won't even know you have it.

19-year olds have died from the virus. In Iran a 23-year old female futsal player died this week. It's not incredibly likely, but possible - 0.2% case fatality rate is a 1/500 chance, and 1/500 chances do happen.

If you're young, a good way to think about it is how dangerous a nasty flu season would be to an 80 year old. Your doctor would strongly advise you to get your flu jab (of course one doesn't exist for COVID-19 yet).

[Inmate Trump]

I have a question.

Why did we evacuate infected Americans back into the country from China?

[PSOL]

I have a question.

Why did we evacuate infected Americans back into the country from China?

We don’t want our people to be stranded in China when they could get adequate care here in the States. Leaving people for dead is just bad optics.