What's going on in Dunbar, WI?

[heatcharger]

This remote logging town in Marinette County, WI sticks out like a sore thumb in the 2016 presidential swing map in Wisconsin:



The election results here recently are remarkable:

(result in Marinette County)

2012 Governor Recall: Walker +59 (Walker +24)
2012 President: Romney +62 (Romney +3)
2012 Senate: Thompson +60 (Thompson +2)
2014 Governor: Walker +45 (Walker +22)
2016 President: Trump +38 (Trump +33)
2016 Senate: Johnson +44 (Johnson +31)
2018 Governor: Walker +44 (Walker +27)
2018 Senate: Vukmir +31 (Vukmir +13)

A quick study of Wikipedia and Google Maps reveal nothing interesting about this town. Has it grown a tourism industry here recently? Hard to explain how this town has moved left this decade in stark contrast to the rest of Northern Wisconsin.

[RI]

According to Atlas, Dunbar lost half its voters in 2016 relative to 2012, which is odd. The decline persisted through to 2018, but none of the neighboring townships saw notable declines at all.

[Linus Van Pelt]

There was a Baptist college in Dunbar, Northland Baptist Bible College, that closed in 2015. This explains both the large drop in voters and why the voters who left were very Republican.

It actually seems, from a little online research, to have reopened recently, under the name "Northland Institute". The web site is here but it's a little unclear what exactly this "Institute" is and how it compares in size to the old college.

[heatcharger]

According to Atlas, Dunbar lost half its voters in 2016 relative to 2012, which is odd. The decline persisted through to 2018, but none of the neighboring townships saw notable declines at all.

There was a Baptist college in Dunbar, Northland Baptist Bible College, that closed in 2015. This explains both the large drop in voters and why the voters who left were very Republican.

It actually seems, from a little online research, to have reopened recently, under the name "Northland Institute". The web site is here but it's a little unclear what exactly this "Institute" is and how it compares in size to the old college.

Extremely interesting stuff guys, thanks.

It seems as though the closing of the school was bound to happen -- 44% of the student body planned to serve overseas in 2009. This school seemed extremely fundamentalist so I wonder if by reopening, they've changed their ways a bit, causing a change in the political makeup of the faculty and student body.

[Tintrlvr]

They don't stick out *quite* as strongly, but anyone able to provide reasons for the other three remote northern Wisconsin towns that swung to Clinton: Scott (Burnett County) and Winchester and Presque Isle (next to each other in Vilas County)?

[Adam Griffin]

It's worth noting that even prior to the school closure, swings were happening here:

2006: Green +59.8 (79.7-19.9)
2008: McCain +68.6 (83.9-15.3)
2010: Walker +61.5 (80.4-18.9)
2012: Romney +62.0 (79.7-17.7)

So even between 2008 and 2012, the county swung by 7 points to Obama. There were only 8 wards in all of NE WI that swung to Obama in 2012, and Dunbar swung by the most. Though upon closer inspection, McCain's 2008 performance appears to be the true odd-ball over this period; possibly due to McCain's military service?

[Adam Griffin]

For your consideration:

Dunbar Town, WI - 2020 Primary (GOP +35)
Republican: 67.5% (131)
Democratic: 32.5% (63)

Dunbar Town, WI - 2020 Supreme Court (Kelly +41)
Kelly: 70.5% (136)
Karofsky: 29.5% (57)

In net terms: 5 Democratic primary voters pulled the ballot for Kelly, while one Democratic primary voter abstained from the SC race.

[walleye26]

They don't stick out *quite* as strongly, but anyone able to provide reasons for the other three remote northern Wisconsin towns that swung to Clinton: Scott (Burnett County) and Winchester and Presque Isle (next to each other in Vilas County)?

I can’t speak for Scott, but Presque Isle and Winchester have a fair amount of retired Chicago/Milwaukee liberals. Scott is probably only about 90 miles from the Twin Cities, so that’s my guess there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

why did some suburbs of La Crosse swing D?

[Brittain33]

For your consideration:

Dunbar Town, WI - 2020 Primary (GOP +35)
Republican: 67.5% (131)
Democratic: 32.5% (63)

Dunbar Town, WI - 2020 Supreme Court (Kelly +41)
Kelly: 70.5% (136)
Karofsky: 29.5% (57)

In net terms: 5 Democratic primary voters pulled the ballot for Kelly, while one Democratic primary voter abstained from the SC race.

We could alternatively say 5 Kelly voters chose to participate in the Democratic primary rather than the uncontested Republican primary.