Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings: Berine Sanders edition

[Progressive Pessimist]

I actually agree. Arizona may or may not still be a tossup though. It's hard to tell with Sanders. Will his Latin support in the primary translate into the general election?

One would think that, but he actually hasn't been doing too well in the Arizona polls. He is doing poorly in Florida too. Doing well with the Hispanic vote in the primary doesn't necessarily translate to the general perhaps. Although Arizona should still be competitive given the 2018 results.

I can definitely see that being the case. Latin voters are not monolithic and very much vary in how they vote from state to state.

Actually I agree with your map too. The truth is probably somewhere in between yours and Sabato's.

[Inmate Trump]

Sabato's map is even more accurate now.

Bernie's Castro and USSR comments will be played non-stop by the GOP should he be the nominee and it will translate into heavy Democratic loses in November.

I think Bernie wins Michigan, NH, and ME at large, but loses PA and WI and every other swing state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato and their team follow conventional wisdom. They did so in 2016 - and were wrong, and they'll do so in 2020 - and be wrong.

[Roll Roons]

Sabato and their team follow conventional wisdom. They did so in 2016 - and were wrong, and they'll do so in 2020 - and be wrong.

2016 was an aberration - they've generally been pretty accurate in their predictions.

Plus tbh, I respect them for trying to actually make a call on every single race/state rather than just calling everything a tossup.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato and their team follow conventional wisdom. They did so in 2016 - and were wrong, and they'll do so in 2020 - and be wrong.

2016 was an aberration - they've generally been pretty accurate in their predictions.

Thinking that is why most people will get this election wrong again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

[Roll Roons]

Sabato and their team follow conventional wisdom. They did so in 2016 - and were wrong, and they'll do so in 2020 - and be wrong.

2016 was an aberration - they've generally been pretty accurate in their predictions.

Thinking that is why most people will get this election wrong again.

I'm saying their inaccuracy in 2016 was an aberration for them, as they have usually guessed the presidential winner correctly. Plus even that year, they got most of the downballot races right.

[Inmate Trump]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

I think his VP is something that could save his electoral chances, considering his dictatorship praise will be constantly featured in ads.

Michelle Obama would unite the party and calm the nerves of many.  Anything short of a unifier as his Veep and he loses.

[John Dule]

A Sanders nomination runs the risk of making Sabato look stupid twice in a row. Is that a risk we're all willing to take??

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, www.electionprojection.com has it right, WI is gonna determine the Prez

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

Unless he picks someone universally loved in the Democratic Party, his VP won't matter. And I don't think someone universally loved will want to run with Sanders. He isn't known for being very popular.

[Inmate Trump]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

Unless he picks someone universally loved in the Democratic Party, his VP won't matter. And I don't think someone universally loved will want to run with Sanders. He isn't known for being very popular.

Agreed.  That's why I say Michelle Obama is the only one who would work to unify and rally the party behind him.

[Lord Halifax]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

Unless he picks someone universally loved in the Democratic Party, his VP won't matter. And I don't think someone universally loved will want to run with Sanders. He isn't known for being very popular.

Tammy Baldwin will matter in WI.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

Unless he picks someone universally loved in the Democratic Party, his VP won't matter. And I don't think someone universally loved will want to run with Sanders. He isn't known for being very popular.

Agreed.  That's why I say Michelle Obama is the only one who would work to unify and rally the party behind him.

I'd be shocked in Michelle Obama agreed to run as his VP. I think nearly everyone but Sanders' diehard fans would prefer her at the top of the ticket

[Inmate Trump]

Michelle Obama would hurt the ticket more than help, once the opposition targets her record. She has no political experience.

She has more than Trump had when he won.

[here2view]

Florida has the same rating as Texas? Jesus f-ing Christ.

I can understand having Florida as Lean R, and Trump will probably win it against Sanders, but Likely R? The same rating as a state Trump won by 9? Come on now.

[MT Treasurer]

Florida has the same rating as Texas? Jesus f-ing Christ.

I can understand having Florida as Lean R, and Trump will probably win it against Sanders, but Likely R? The same rating as a state Trump won by 9? Come on now.

We need a total and complete shutdown of "Florida is Safe R" propaganda entering US Election Atlas Dot Org until our mods can figure out what the hell is going on.

[jamestroll]

Florida has the same rating as Texas? Jesus f-ing Christ.

I can understand having Florida as Lean R, and Trump will probably win it against Sanders, but Likely R? The same rating as a state Trump won by 9? Come on now.

We need a total and complete shutdown of "Florida is Safe R" propaganda entering US Election Atlas Dot Org until our mods can figure out what the hell is going on.

Sanders could mitigate some trends but overall the trends that have been on going for a while will continue into 2020. Though I do agree with that fact that Trump is likely to win Florida and Texas.

[Former President tack50]

Isn't Sanders a horrible fit for Florida? I imagine Cuban-Americans would flip to R very easily given his comments on Fidel Castro and what not.

The FL is R+0.0000001 is a meme, but Sanders is certainly the worst Dem nominee for the state.

[SuperCow]

With the Fox polls showing Bernie ahead 49-42, once he gets his Beep selection, Bernie can expand the map

Unless he picks someone universally loved in the Democratic Party, his VP won't matter. And I don't think someone universally loved will want to run with Sanders. He isn't known for being very popular.

Considering the age of both presidential candidates, and Bernie's recent heart attack, I think the VP selection will matter more than in most years.

[538Electoral]

Interesting.