USC Dornsife/LA Times: Democrats lead Trump

[Skye]

Biden 49
Trump 40

Sanders 47
Trump 40

Warren 45
Trump 41

Buttigieg 43
Trump 40

Klobuchar 42
Trump 40

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-01-31/joe-biden-holds-lead-in-national-poll-is-it-a-firewall-against-iowa-new-hampshire-losses

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Title should be changed to clarify this is a national poll.

When I read "LA Times" and saw a Biden lead <50%, I nearly had a heart attack.

[Podgy the Bear]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

[SnowLabrador]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

Hopefully that's closer to his ceiling than his floor. But I think his floor is more like 45%.

[Frenchrepublican]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

It really depends of which polls you’re looking at. In ABC/WP, Zogby, Emerson, IBD/TIP polls he is above 46%

[Devout Centrist]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

It really depends of which polls you’re looking at. In ABC/WP, Zogby, Emerson, IBD/TIP polls he is above 46%

Wow, what a prestigious list

[Skill and Chance]

This was an outlier Clinton landslide poll throughout 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good newz

[demoman1596]

This was an outlier Clinton landslide poll throughout 2016.

Actually, looking back at the 538 model (I'm sure you could check this elsewhere), Trump was leading in the 2016 USC Dornsife/LA Times poll 14 out of the 18 times it was taken, Clinton led 3 out of the 18, and the poll was tied the other time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This was an outlier Clinton landslide poll throughout 2016.

Nope.  They were consistently about 6% more Trump-friendly than the averages throughout the campaign.  Their final release on the morning of the election showed Trump winning the PV 46.8-43.6, which was obviously way off (though they claimed victory afterwards because Trump won).

[Skill and Chance]

This was an outlier Clinton landslide poll throughout 2016.

Nope.  They were consistently about 6% more Trump-friendly than the averages throughout the campaign.  Their final release on the morning of the election showed Trump winning the PV 46.8-43.6, which was obviously way off (though they claimed victory afterwards because Trump won).

Sorry I must be confusing this with something else.  Regret the error.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Considering the fact the LA Times was Trump's best pollster in 2016 (besides Rassy), this is bad news for him.

[pbrower2a]

Voters under 35 are about 20% more D than R and voters over 55 are about 5% more R than D. With new voters appearing at the young end of the age spectrum and voters over 55 as predominant among those leaving the electorate through death at a rate of 1.5% per year, simple replacement by younger voters implies about a 1.5% D tendency (1.5% x 4 x .25) from 2016 to 2020 nationwide. Concentration by states? The only electorally-large state that could buck that trend is Florida.

A simple 1.5% shift in the electorate from R to D with nothing else happening is clearly enough to pull Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to the Democrats. 

[Brittain33]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

It really depends of which polls you’re looking at. In ABC/WP, Zogby, Emerson, IBD/TIP polls he is above 46%

Wow, what a prestigious list

Why no Rasmussen?

[Frenchrepublican]

The consistency of Trump's 40 percent in this poll (and 40-42 percent in other polls) is amazing. 

It really depends of which polls you’re looking at. In ABC/WP, Zogby, Emerson, IBD/TIP polls he is above 46%

Wow, what a prestigious list

Yeah anyway your logic is :
1. a poll is good for Trump : trash
2. a poll has Trump losing the PV by double digits : this poll is accurate and anyone who has doubts about it is a Trumpist hack

By the way Emerson / ABC polls have a better trackrecord than Quinnipiac and Fox polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is within the margin of error. After impeachment,  the 278 blue wall is gonna be back.