CNN - National: Biden +5, Sanders +4, Warren +1, Buttigieg -1

[MT Treasurer]

Trump would win an election held today.

And he would have lost big in an election held four years ago today.  Both what-ifs have equal value (i.e., close to zero) as predictors for the eventual outcome.

Not to mention that the likely Democratic nominee is leading Trump by 5% in this poll and leading him by similar margins in other national polls, so it’s far from obvious that "Trump would win an election held today."

My guess is that Biden would win the PV by 3-5% against Trump (both today and in November 2020), which likely means that the race will be fairly close regardless of who wins.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1208059828075151361
In 2016, Trump won a large majority of voters who disliked both him and Clinton.  According to CNN, exit polls showed 14% of voters disliked both candidates, and they went for Trump 69-15.

While true, I think there will be far less people who dislike both Biden and Trump versus Hillary and Trump. Both Hillary and Trump were unlikeable candidates to a large number of people. I don't see Biden carrying the same opposition.

Biden is already at 43/50 per the last three reputable polls average despite almost no media attention. This is going to be an even more toxic campaign that the last one if he's the nominee. He has no meaningful constituency that will like him through all the hits.

Also, I would bet this "quadrant" of voters is going to be overrepresented in a Registered Voters sample. Harder to keep that lead at the ballot box.

That's probably true, but I think it's very likely that in 2020 Trump will NOT win a majority of voters who dislike both candidates.  Even leaving aside Trump's unique personality issues, such voters in any election seem more likely to break against the status quo and try something new.  In 2016 Trump was the new thing, but now he's the status quo.

Concerning the fact that Trump is losing voters (according this poll) who a have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump, I think you have to keep in mind that a good chuck of people who had a bad opinion of Trump in 2016 now likes him, if Trump has a 44% favourability rate and that at the same time you have 12% of voters who dislike Biden and Trump, even if Trump wins only one third of these voters, he would still get 48%.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1208059828075151361
In 2016, Trump won a large majority of voters who disliked both him and Clinton.  According to CNN, exit polls showed 14% of voters disliked both candidates, and they went for Trump 69-15.

While true, I think there will be far less people who dislike both Biden and Trump versus Hillary and Trump. Both Hillary and Trump were unlikeable candidates to a large number of people. I don't see Biden carrying the same opposition.

Biden is already at 43/50 per the last three reputable polls average despite almost no media attention. This is going to be an even more toxic campaign that the last one if he's the nominee. He has no meaningful constituency that will like him through all the hits.

Also, I would bet this "quadrant" of voters is going to be overrepresented in a Registered Voters sample. Harder to keep that lead at the ballot box.

That's probably true, but I think it's very likely that in 2020 Trump will NOT win a majority of voters who dislike both candidates.  Even leaving aside Trump's unique personality issues, such voters in any election seem more likely to break against the status quo and try something new.  In 2016 Trump was the new thing, but now he's the status quo.

Concerning the fact that Trump is losing voters (according this poll) who a have a negative opinion of both Biden and Trump, I think you have to keep in mind that a good chuck of people who had a bad opinion of Trump in 2016 now likes him, if Trump has a 44% favourability rate and that at the same time you have 12% of voters who dislike Biden and Trump, even if Trump wins only one third of these voters, he would still get 48%.

It's also important to note that a much larger chunk of the 2016 3rd Party voters tended to skew towards Democratic demographic populations of the electorate.

3rd Party voting will likely be much lower in 2020 than in 2016, and the Democratic candidate whomever he or she is are more than likely to be the net beneficiary.

[catographer]

Here's what I expect:
Biden: 49-50%
Trump: 46-47%
Narrow Biden victory (+MI, PA, AZ)

Third-party 2016 voters, who were mostly college-educated moderates who hated Trump & Clinton equally + young liberals who hated Clinton will get behind Biden for the most part.

The number of Clinton > Trump and Trump > Biden voters will be roughly equal and balance out.

Therefore Trump holds steady with his 46/47%, but Biden builds on Clinton's share a tiny bit enough to narrowly carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Wisconsin and Florida narrowly stay in Trump's column (I think Florida will be closer than many Atlasians think).

Very possible at least one of AZ/MI/PA sticks with Trump, handing the election to him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This poll is not great for Democrats, but it at least sets reasonable expectations for how a Democrat could do against Trump when the general election really heats up.

[Annatar]

The interesting thing is Biden is polling against Trump exactly how Clinton was in the last week of the 2016 campaign. The NBC/WSJ poll done Nov 3-5 had Clinton leading Trump 48-43 in a 2 way race, the last Monmouth poll done Nov 3-6 had Clinton leading Trump 50-44, those numbers are basically identical to the 49-44 lead Biden has.

Furthermore, in the last 5 national polls that did H2H, Biden's lead averaged out is 3.6% vs Trump, on the 538 model going into election day, Clinton led Trump by 3.6%, on rcp she had a 3.2% lead.

So Biden today is basically where Clinton was in the last week of the campaign, the good news for Trump is he's got 11 months left to bring down Biden's favourability numbers and make him more unpopular so Trump will do better against him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The interesting thing is Biden is polling against Trump exactly how Clinton was in the last week of the 2016 campaign. The NBC/WSJ poll done Nov 3-5 had Clinton leading Trump 48-43 in a 2 way race, the last Monmouth poll done Nov 3-6 had Clinton leading Trump 50-44, those numbers are basically identical to the 49-44 lead Biden has.

Furthermore, in the last 5 national polls that did H2H, Biden's lead averaged out is 3.6% vs Trump, on the 538 model going into election day, Clinton led Trump by 3.6%, on rcp she had a 3.2% lead.

So Biden today is basically where Clinton was in the last week of the campaign, the good news for Trump is he's got 11 months left to bring down Biden's favourability numbers and make him more unpopular so Trump will do better against him.

You seem to be assuming that this can only go in one direction and not the other.

[Annatar]

The interesting thing is Biden is polling against Trump exactly how Clinton was in the last week of the 2016 campaign. The NBC/WSJ poll done Nov 3-5 had Clinton leading Trump 48-43 in a 2 way race, the last Monmouth poll done Nov 3-6 had Clinton leading Trump 50-44, those numbers are basically identical to the 49-44 lead Biden has.

Furthermore, in the last 5 national polls that did H2H, Biden's lead averaged out is 3.6% vs Trump, on the 538 model going into election day, Clinton led Trump by 3.6%, on rcp she had a 3.2% lead.

So Biden today is basically where Clinton was in the last week of the campaign, the good news for Trump is he's got 11 months left to bring down Biden's favourability numbers and make him more unpopular so Trump will do better against him.

You seem to be assuming that this can only go in one direction and not the other.

There’s been virtually no change in Trump’s numbers over the past year, maybe shifts of 2%, why would that dynamic change in 2020, Trump is going to stay where he is most likely.

[2016]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

[President Johnson]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

This is blatantly false. A record number of jobs were created under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who both inherited a mess from their Republican predecessors. Both are also the only presidents in the last 50 years, who lowered the federal budget deficit, which Republicans constantly whine about during Democratic administrations. Bill Clinton even had a surplus, which Dubya destroyed within two years by passing tax cuts for the wealthy and waging a disastrous war on the credit card that destabilized a whole region for more than a decade (and counting). The current economy is still a product of the Obama Administration, under which job creation was faster than under Trump, who is now making record deficits despite having economic growth.

And which angry mobs are you talking about? The guys who still shout "lock her up" over a phony scandal, or the fellows who want to send back American citizens were they are coming from? Or are we talking about the angry mobs who want, encouraged by their God Emperor, punch protesters in the face? Or are we talking about KKK thugs, the "president" calls "fine people"?

No matter how often Trump hacks repeat these ridiculous talkingpoints, they ain't become true.

[Podgy the Bear]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

Really?   This perception of Republican mastery of the economy is a joke.  So what happened to Bush I--who was defeated--and Bush II--who remains a pariah in several Republican circles that he doesn't show up at the RNC?

[2016]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

Really?   This perception of Republican mastery of the economy is a joke.  So what happened to Bush I--who was defeated--and Bush II--who remains a pariah in several Republican circles that he doesn't show up at the RNC?

LOL,
The Economy was pretty darn bad when George H. W. Bush had to run against Bill Clinton in 1992.

On the flip coin one of the Big Reasons why Ronald Reagan essentially managed to get George Sr. to the White House in 1988 was you guessed it THE ECONOMY.

If an Incumbent President runs for Re-Election with Economic Conditions like that Poll is suggesting he usually wins. The Question is: Will Voters forgive Trump for all the other flaws he's having.

Bill Clinton would have hands down defeated Dubya in 2000 if he would have been able to seek a 3rd Term.

The Economy is going to help Trump a lot. People want Jobs, want to work. USA is booming. Why the heck would you toss out a President in those sort of Conditions is beyond me?

[UWS]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

Really?   This perception of Republican mastery of the economy is a joke.  So what happened to Bush I--who was defeated--and Bush II--who remains a pariah in several Republican circles that he doesn't show up at the RNC?

LOL,
The Economy was pretty darn bad when George H. W. Bush had to run against Bill Clinton in 1992.

On the flip coin one of the Big Reasons why Ronald Reagan essentially managed to get George Sr. to the White House in 1988 was you guessed it THE ECONOMY.

If an Incumbent President runs for Re-Election with Economic Conditions like that Poll is suggesting he usually wins. The Question is: Will Voters forgive Trump for all the other flaws he's having.

Bill Clinton would have hands down defeated Dubya in 2000 if he would have been able to seek a 3rd Term.

The Economy is going to help Trump a lot. People want Jobs, want to work. USA is booming. Why the heck would you toss out a President in those sort of Conditions is beyond me?

What also helped Bush in 1988 was a strong foreign policy as America was on its path to victory in the Cold War ‘cause Reagan rebuilt the military and it was before the election that he ratified the INF treaty with Gorbatchev to dismantle an important part of Soviet nuclear weapons.

And under Trump, we are defeating ISIS, denuclearizing North Korea and eliminated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Meanwhile Biden opposed the raid that killed Bin Laden.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here's what I expect:
Biden: 49-50%
Trump: 46-47%
Narrow Biden victory (+MI, PA, AZ)

Third-party 2016 voters, who were mostly college-educated moderates who hated Trump & Clinton equally + young liberals who hated Clinton will get behind Biden for the most part.

The number of Clinton > Trump and Trump > Biden voters will be roughly equal and balance out.

Therefore Trump holds steady with his 46/47%, but Biden builds on Clinton's share a tiny bit enough to narrowly carry Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Wisconsin and Florida narrowly stay in Trump's column (I think Florida will be closer than many Atlasians think).

Very possible at least one of AZ/MI/PA sticks with Trump, handing the election to him.

Yeah, as of now that also how I see things, Trump would be a slight underdog against Biden, but it would not be a landslide loss and Trump would still have a decent chance of being reelected despite losing the popular vote by squeezing in WI.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And under Trump, we are defeating ISIS, denuclearizing North Korea and eliminated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Well, at least you got one out of three right.

[Frenchrepublican]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

This is blatantly false. A record number of jobs were created under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who both inherited a mess from their Republican predecessors. Both are also the only presidents in the last 50 years, who lowered the federal budget deficit, which Republicans constantly whine about during Democratic administrations. Bill Clinton even had a surplus, which Dubya destroyed within two years by passing tax cuts for the wealthy and waging a disastrous war on the credit card that destabilized a whole region for more than a decade (and counting). The current economy is still a product of the Obama Administration, under which job creation was faster than under Trump, who is now making record deficits despite having economic growth.

And which angry mobs are you talking about? The guys who still shout "lock her up" over a phony scandal, or the fellows who want to send back American citizens were they are coming from? Or are we talking about the angry mobs who want, encouraged by their God Emperor, punch protesters in the face? Or are we talking about KKK thugs, the "president" calls "fine people"?

No matter how often Trump hacks repeat these ridiculous talkingpoints, they ain't become true.

This post doesn’t make any sense, tho idea that democrats/republicans are good/bad for the economy is silly, the economy doesn’t care about who is in the White House and if Trump is hardly the reason why the US economy is doing well, Obama doesn’t deserve any credit either. The economy mostly depends of structural reasons and of monetary policies, not of the political affiliation of the president.

[2016]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

This is blatantly false. A record number of jobs were created under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who both inherited a mess from their Republican predecessors. Both are also the only presidents in the last 50 years, who lowered the federal budget deficit, which Republicans constantly whine about during Democratic administrations. Bill Clinton even had a surplus, which Dubya destroyed within two years by passing tax cuts for the wealthy and waging a disastrous war on the credit card that destabilized a whole region for more than a decade (and counting). The current economy is still a product of the Obama Administration, under which job creation was faster than under Trump, who is now making record deficits despite having economic growth.

And which angry mobs are you talking about? The guys who still shout "lock her up" over a phony scandal, or the fellows who want to send back American citizens were they are coming from? Or are we talking about the angry mobs who want, encouraged by their God Emperor, punch protesters in the face? Or are we talking about KKK thugs, the "president" calls "fine people"?

No matter how often Trump hacks repeat these ridiculous talkingpoints, they ain't become true.

This post doesn’t make any sense, tho idea that democrats/republicans are good/bad for the economy is silly, the economy doesn’t care about who is in the White House and if Trump is hardly the reason why the US economy is doing well, Obama doesn’t deserve any credit either. The economy mostly depends of structural reasons and of monetary policies, not of the political affiliation of the president.

I totally disagree. Democrats in the WH mean more Regulations, Republicans in the WH means more Free Market, Free Trade, Better Trade Conditions, etc.

The biggest crap the USA ever did was that Dodd-Frank Show. That was the Main Reason why the US Economy was so sluggish until 2015.

Why do you think People wanted "Brexit" in the UK? They've grown tired of all the Regulations, etc. Brussels and those crappolas there were enforcing on them.

You cannot create a Small Business with so much Regulations enforced! Every Economist would tell you that less Regulation = More Chances for Small Businesses among other things.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kinda shows oh fed up the EC has become that Trump being down by 5 is viewed as a good thing/only a narrow loss

[Podgy the Bear]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

Really?   This perception of Republican mastery of the economy is a joke.  So what happened to Bush I--who was defeated--and Bush II--who remains a pariah in several Republican circles that he doesn't show up at the RNC?

LOL,
The Economy was pretty darn bad when George H. W. Bush had to run against Bill Clinton in 1992.

On the flip coin one of the Big Reasons why Ronald Reagan essentially managed to get George Sr. to the White House in 1988 was you guessed it THE ECONOMY.

If an Incumbent President runs for Re-Election with Economic Conditions like that Poll is suggesting he usually wins. The Question is: Will Voters forgive Trump for all the other flaws he's having.

Bill Clinton would have hands down defeated Dubya in 2000 if he would have been able to seek a 3rd Term.

The Economy is going to help Trump a lot. People want Jobs, want to work. USA is booming. Why the heck would you toss out a President in those sort of Conditions is beyond me?

If you look at my first post on this topic, you would see that the current perception of the economy would have Trump win by a significant margin.   And people who swing would like to want to keep the incumbent.  But why is he consistently down in the polls?  It's Trump himself.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

Really?   This perception of Republican mastery of the economy is a joke.  So what happened to Bush I--who was defeated--and Bush II--who remains a pariah in several Republican circles that he doesn't show up at the RNC?

LOL,
The Economy was pretty darn bad when George H. W. Bush had to run against Bill Clinton in 1992.

On the flip coin one of the Big Reasons why Ronald Reagan essentially managed to get George Sr. to the White House in 1988 was you guessed it THE ECONOMY.

If an Incumbent President runs for Re-Election with Economic Conditions like that Poll is suggesting he usually wins. The Question is: Will Voters forgive Trump for all the other flaws he's having.

Bill Clinton would have hands down defeated Dubya in 2000 if he would have been able to seek a 3rd Term.

The Economy is going to help Trump a lot. People want Jobs, want to work. USA is booming. Why the heck would you toss out a President in those sort of Conditions is beyond me?

If you look at my first post on this topic, you would see that the current perception of the economy would have Trump win by a significant margin.   And people who swing would like to want to keep the incumbent.  But why is he consistently down in the polls?  It's Trump himself.

The Trump economy have only worked for Middle and Upper class people. People making 50K a yr or over. Housing costs have not kept up with wage growth; subsequently,  people making 32K or under are not making good on the boom economy. Democrats are lower income earnings

[Frenchrepublican]

That same Poll show that a whopping 76 % view the Economy as good, only 22 % say it's bad.

If I were a DEM I would get a little bit nervous. Unsually Presidents don't get tossed out if the Approval on the U. S. Economy is that high.

I say it again: Republicans creat Jobs, Democrats create angry Mobs.

This is blatantly false. A record number of jobs were created under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who both inherited a mess from their Republican predecessors. Both are also the only presidents in the last 50 years, who lowered the federal budget deficit, which Republicans constantly whine about during Democratic administrations. Bill Clinton even had a surplus, which Dubya destroyed within two years by passing tax cuts for the wealthy and waging a disastrous war on the credit card that destabilized a whole region for more than a decade (and counting). The current economy is still a product of the Obama Administration, under which job creation was faster than under Trump, who is now making record deficits despite having economic growth.

And which angry mobs are you talking about? The guys who still shout "lock her up" over a phony scandal, or the fellows who want to send back American citizens were they are coming from? Or are we talking about the angry mobs who want, encouraged by their God Emperor, punch protesters in the face? Or are we talking about KKK thugs, the "president" calls "fine people"?

No matter how often Trump hacks repeat these ridiculous talkingpoints, they ain't become true.

This post doesn’t make any sense, tho idea that democrats/republicans are good/bad for the economy is silly, the economy doesn’t care about who is in the White House and if Trump is hardly the reason why the US economy is doing well, Obama doesn’t deserve any credit either. The economy mostly depends of structural reasons and of monetary policies, not of the political affiliation of the president.

I totally disagree. Democrats in the WH mean more Regulations, Republicans in the WH means more Free Market, Free Trade, Better Trade Conditions, etc.

The biggest crap the USA ever did was that Dodd-Frank Show. That was the Main Reason why the US Economy was so sluggish until 2015.

Why do you think People wanted "Brexit" in the UK? They've grown tired of all the Regulations, etc. Brussels and those crappolas there were enforcing on them.

You cannot create a Small Business with so much Regulations enforced! Every Economist would tell you that less Regulation = More Chances for Small Businesses among other things.

I'm a classical liberal, so I support lower taxes + less regulations, but let's be honest, even if these policies are good for the economy, they are only one factor among many others and if markets crash like in 2007/2008, cutting taxes won't help you. Schumpeter clearly explained it, the economy is based on cycles, and when you arrive at to the end of a cycle there will be a crisis and you can't do anything to stop it. Capitalism is creating a lot of wealth, but like the Human body, crisis are parts of the story.

As for the Brexit, I disagree with you, most people who voted to leave the EU voted on social concerns like immigration, the Brexit is a big win for nationalism and the concept of ''nation state'' and a big defeat for the ''European federalism'' ideology which is a form of socialism ; but let's be honest outside of Danniel Hannan, people who voted for the ''leave'' voted like that because  they wanted ''to take back their country''.