Why is Martha McSally such a weak candidate?

[junior chįmp]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Well, yeah. Out of touch with your new electorate.

[KaiserDave]

She is laboring under the delusion that now is 10 years ago.

[junior chįmp]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Well, yeah. Out of touch with your new electorate.

I think you might be on to something

[MT Treasurer]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Uh yeah, if you fail to adapt to or even recognize these changes, you are out of touch. McSally is free to run like this is the Arizona of 2004, but it certainly isn’t going to get her very far.

[tmthforu94]

IMO, she is a panderer. I like her backstory and her voting record for the most part, but I don't think voters truly know the REAL Martha McSally, because she just seems like the type of politician who will make a drastic change if polling tells her to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally is only 3 points behind, and just like Ernst, she is a female from the military, Dems underestimated Ernst, and she will beat Greenfield in a landslide.  If Trump takes on Biden and not Bernie, and corruption,  is again a factor, like against Hilary, McSally can win

[Libertas Vel Mors]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Well, yeah. Out of touch with your new electorate.

I don't think this is fair. Her old district was both more moderate and about as suburban as AZ as a whole, and she ran a good victorious campaign there. If she's stuck in the past, it's at most 2014 AZ - not 2004 AZ.

[Gracile]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Well, yeah. Out of touch with your new electorate.

I don't think this is fair. Her old district was both more moderate and about as suburban as AZ as a whole, and she ran a good victorious campaign there. If she's stuck in the past, it's at most 2014 AZ - not 2004 AZ.

She lost her first campaign to the House in 2012 (underperforming Mitt Romney), and only barely won her seat two years later. Honestly, her whole electoral history aside from 2016 is pretty unimpressive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, a 3 point lead by Kelly, and Trump leads Biden in the natlpolls is safe with 9 months left? Dems underestimated Ernst and Greenfield is the worst recruit the Dems have. Both McSally and Ernst served in the military..

I am not saying Kelly will lose, but if Biden is the nominee,  and not Bernie, with corruption facing Biden, he can lose

[Frenchrepublican]

When the demographics of your electorate change....suddenly your loss is attributed to being "out of touch"

Uh yeah, if you fail to adapt to or even recognize these changes, you are out of touch. McSally is free to run like this is the Arizona of 2004, but it certainly isn’t going to get her very far.

The thing is that even if she ran on a ''Trumpist'' platform (rather than a 2004 neocons platform) she would have lost last year. AZ is no longer a red state, it's a red leaning state at the best, and next year AZ will be probably one of the closest state in the country

[Frenchrepublican]

She ran a 2004 campaign last year and by most accounts is continuing to do the same for 2020.  That's the main reason.  

This pretty much hits the nail on the head. McSally is out of touch with the changing Republican electorate and has been very slow to catch up with the ideological shifts within the Republican Party. Even in AZ, she really doesn’t represent your average Republican voter all that well. Add to this the rapid D trend of the state and it’s not hard to see why she’s trailing Kelly. Her only appeal is having an R next to her name, but that’s simply not enough for a Republican anymore in the AZ of 2018/2020.

That said, even with a "strong Republican candidate" this would only be a Tossup for the GOP.

Yeah, while most DSCC ''top recruits'' will likely be seen in a few months as enormous failures, Kelly on the other hand is a very good candidate, he is probably their challenger in the country.