How many incumbents will lose by over 10%?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 12, 2024, 01:15:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  How many incumbents will lose by over 10%?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How many incumbents will lose by over 10%?  (Read 696 times)
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,379
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 17, 2019, 03:24:22 PM »
Last year, four House incumbents lost by over 10% (Comstock, Rothfus, Coffman, and Paulsen), as didi Heidi Heitkamp in the Senate. What incumbents will lose by more than 10% in 2020?
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,658


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2019, 03:25:36 PM »
In the senate only Gardner and even thats highly unlikely.
In the house Maaybe Peterson but thats also pretty unlikely.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2019, 03:52:05 PM »
Quote from: lfromnj on December 17, 2019, 03:25:36 PM
In the senate only Gardner and even thats highly unlikely.
In the house Maaybe Peterson but thats also pretty unlikely.

You don’t think Jones will lose by more than 10%? Color me (pleasantly) surprised. Tongue
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2019, 03:56:57 PM »
I do think Jones will lose by over 10%. While I could see Gardner losing by high single-digits, I think it's unlikely he loses by over 10 unless it's a Democratic wave year.

In the House, I'm not sure any incumbent will lose by over 10. Maybe Peterson, but I don't think Brindisi or Cunningham would lose by quite that much.
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,126
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2019, 03:58:29 PM »
Senate: Jones is an obvious one, with Gardner also possible.

House: Brindisi, Horn, Cunningham and Rose seem like the only possibilities. Peterson might lose, but it's hard to see him going down by more than a couple points.
Logged
BP🌹
BP1202
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,170
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -9.13, S: -6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2019, 04:49:29 PM »
Finkenauer
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,658


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2019, 05:01:45 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on December 17, 2019, 03:52:05 PM
Quote from: lfromnj on December 17, 2019, 03:25:36 PM
In the senate only Gardner and even thats highly unlikely.
In the house Maaybe Peterson but thats also pretty unlikely.

You don’t think Jones will lose by more than 10%? Color me (pleasantly) surprised. Tongue

I forgot about Jones lol, yeah he will. Tongue
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,549


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2019, 05:08:15 PM »

Seriously?  Trump didn’t even carry that seat by more than a few points in 2016.
Logged
BP🌹
BP1202
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,170
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -9.13, S: -6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2019, 05:29:55 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on December 17, 2019, 05:08:15 PM

Seriously?  Trump didn’t even carry that seat by more than a few points in 2016.
Yeah, but Finkenauer is an extremely weak candidate, as shown by the fact that she didn't beat Rod Blum by 20 points.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,379
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2019, 05:31:21 PM »
Quote from: BP1202 on December 17, 2019, 05:29:55 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on December 17, 2019, 05:08:15 PM

Seriously?  Trump didn’t even carry that seat by more than a few points in 2016.
Yeah, but Finkenauer is an extremely weak candidate, as shown by the fact that she didn't beat Rod Blum by 20 points.

Blum wasn’t a good candidate, but he was no Duncan Hunter/Chris Collins level of awful.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,652
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2019, 05:42:47 PM »
In the Senate, Jones most likely will, and Gardner might.

House the only one I can realistically getting blown out by that much is Peterson.
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,248
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2019, 06:24:38 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 17, 2019, 03:58:29 PM
Senate: Jones is an obvious one, with Gardner also possible.

House: Brindisi, Horn, Cunningham and Rose seem like the only possibilities. Peterson might lose, but it's hard to see him going down by more than a couple points.

I think it's really easy to imagine Peterson lose by 10% or more. If Trump carries his district by 25% it's not hard to see increased polarization causing the GOP candidate there winning by 10-15%. Polarization nowadays is so high and it'll increase in transitioning districts like Peterson's
Logged
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,195
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2019, 07:05:32 PM »
I'll go with Jones, Gardner, and Peterson.
Logged
pops
katman46
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: 2.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2019, 07:31:45 PM »
Doug Jones, Ed Markey (if you count primaries), Steve King (primary), maybe Susan Collins (primary if Paul LePage runs), maybe Jared Golden, maybe Elissa Slotkin, Kendra Horn, and maybe Ben McAdams.

There is zero chance that Collin Peterson loses by more than mid single digits.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2019, 09:16:21 AM »
Senate: Jones (by 15-18), maybe Gardner but more likely he loses by 5-8 points.
House: No one for sure, but possibilities:

Peterson (MN-07)
Horn (OK-05)
Cunningham (SC-01)
McAdams (UT-04)
Brindisi (NY-22)
Golden (ME-02)

I highly doubt any of them will though. Probably 7-8 point margins at most.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,349
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2019, 01:58:57 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2019, 02:03:10 PM by Cory Booker »
In the Senate Markey and Coons are the vulnerable incumbents and Gardner and Jones are expected to lose. Ann Wagner and Steve King and Fitzpatrick are vulnerable,  King in an upset, due to how good Scholten is fundraisering may lose by 10. Markey and Jones may definitely lose by 10
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2019, 05:37:34 PM »
Quote from: morgieb on December 17, 2019, 05:42:47 PM
In the Senate, Jones most likely will, and Gardner might.

House the only one I can realistically getting blown out by that much is Peterson.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,275


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2019, 05:38:50 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on December 19, 2019, 09:16:21 AM
Senate: Jones (by 15-18), maybe Gardner but more likely he loses by 5-8 points.
House: No one for sure, but possibilities:

Peterson (MN-07)
Horn (OK-05)
Cunningham (SC-01)
McAdams (UT-04)
Brindisi (NY-22)
Golden (ME-02)

I highly doubt any of them will though. Probably 7-8 point margins at most.


Take out UT-4 of your list and I agree.
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2019, 05:53:05 PM »
Very likely (greater than  50% likelihood):

Doug Jones D-AL
Collin Peterson D-MN 7
Justin Amash I-MI 3

Somewhat likely (less than 50%):

Cory Gardner R-CO
Anthony Brindisi D-NY 22
Kendra Horn D-OK 5
Joe Cunningham D-SC 1

Unlikely, but possible (less than 10% likelihood):

Jared Golden D-ME 2
Xochitl Torres-Small D-NM 2
Antonio Delgado D-NY 19
Ben McAdams D-UT 4
Brian Fitzpatrick R-PA 1
Jeff Van Drew R-NJ 2

Can't envision it happening to anybody else unless there is a recession and Trump gets blamed
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.235 seconds with 10 queries.