December 2019: Who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 03, 2024, 07:51:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  December 2019: Who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who will be the 2020 Democratic Nominee?
#1
Joe Biden
#2
Cory Booker
#3
Pete Buttigieg
#4
Tulsi Gabbard
#5
Kamala Harris
#6
Amy Klobuchar
#7
Bernie Sanders
#8
Elizabeth Warren
#9
Andrew Yang
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: December 2019: Who do you predict will be the Democratic nominee?  (Read 910 times)
Horatii
Rookie
**
Posts: 243
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.50, S: 0.60

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 02, 2019, 02:03:36 PM »
This poll will run until January 1, 2020. Candidates polling below 1% are excluded.

November's Results (change from October poll in brackets):
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342441.0

1. Elizabeth Warren: 48.3% (-16.7%)
2. Joe Biden: 23.3% (+0,2%)
3. Bernie Sanders: 11.2% (+6.2%)
4. Pete Buttigieg: 12.1% (+9.0%)
5. Andrew Yang: 2.6% (+0.1%)
6. Kamala Harris: 0.9% (+0.9)
7. Cory Booker: 0.9% (+0.9)
8. Tulsi Gabbard: 0.9% (+0.9)
9. Amy Klobuchar : 0% (--)

Feel free to post your primary prediction maps here so this poll gets more attention.


Results of past polls with the winner's margin of victory:

NOV (Warren +25.0)
OCT (Warren +41.9)
SEPT (Warren +22.5)
AUG (Warren +8.2)
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,504
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2019, 02:09:01 PM »
Joe Biden most likely

1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Mike Bloomberg
6. Amy Klobuchar
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,033
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2019, 02:16:30 PM »
Biden
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,621
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2019, 02:17:36 PM »
It now looks like Biden has the best chance.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,940
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2019, 02:27:27 PM »
Joe Biden
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,348
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2019, 02:33:30 PM »
tbh, I'm starting to think Sanders.
Logged
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2019, 03:21:43 PM »
Pete Buttigieg
Logged
beaver2.0
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,778


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -0.52

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2019, 03:22:19 PM »
Biden.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,067
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2019, 05:58:31 PM »
Clearly Biden.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2019, 06:11:02 PM »
At this very moment, Biden has the best chance. But going off what results in the early states will very possibly look like, I think Sanders will be the Democratic nominee.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2019, 06:13:40 PM »
Biden is still the most likely, but he's definitely not inevitable.
Logged
Da2017
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,475
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2019, 07:26:24 PM »
Biden
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,452
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2019, 07:31:33 PM »
Biden, unless Pete breaks through or Warren rises again.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,014
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2019, 08:14:12 PM »
Biden, once again. His support is just way too solid.
Logged
Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,312
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2019, 08:33:10 PM »

why?
Logged
Donerail
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,329
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2019, 09:53:44 PM »
Feels weird to say it, but Bernie. Next is probably Biden, Warren, and... Klobuchar, I guess.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2019, 10:16:45 PM »
A quarter of the electorate will probably coalesce around Biden while Pete splits up the white vote but Pete is going to be the nominee? Lololololol
Logged
Shadows
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,956
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2019, 10:22:33 PM »
Probably Biden. I think Sanders has a strong chance if he wins both Iowa & NH (in which case he will win Nevada & go into SC & Super Tuesday with a ton of momentum).

I don't see Warren winning. And Pete has no chance since he is disliked by most African Americans, Hispanics, Young Voters & Working Class voters. That is like 65-70% of the Democratic base. There is only so much more white rich boomer conservative old votes that he can get.
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,946
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2019, 11:10:21 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 11:15:13 PM by Orser67 »
Quote from: Orser67 on November 02, 2019, 12:35:45 AM
Quote from: Orser67 on October 02, 2019, 06:04:53 PM
Quote from: Orser67 on September 28, 2019, 01:43:38 AM
Warren, but Biden still has a strong chance, and there's still time for one of the mid-tier candidates to win.

Sticking with this answer, though I'll specify the "mid-tier candidates" as Sanders, Buttigieg, and (though she's far behind the other four candidates who have a shot) Harris.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2019, 11:15:41 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 11:19:15 PM by SN2903 »
Bernie he is much more mainstream in 2020 than 2016 and he can appeal to minorities better than Pete
Logged
W
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,297
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.71, S: -8.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2019, 05:39:29 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2019, 05:48:07 AM by W »
I obviously have personal biases but based on early states and Sanders' support being historically underestimated I'd have to say Sanders, but it will by no means be a large victory. My prediction is a 2v2 between Biden and Sanders which stays neck and neck at times but eventually Sanders edges him out.

Sanders: 35% chance
Biden: 30% chance
Buttigieg: 20% chance
Warren: 15% chance

No one else has a chance at this point unless something happens to one of these 4.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,033
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2019, 06:30:38 AM »
Sanders has no chance, Markets are predicting a Bidenslide
Logged
Suburbia
bronz4141
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,666
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2019, 04:20:07 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on December 02, 2019, 02:09:01 PM
Joe Biden most likely

1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Bernie Sanders
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Mike Bloomberg
6. Amy Klobuchar

All White and two Jews.

Wow.

This is not what the Democratic Party of post-Clinton/Obama was expecting.
Logged
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 03, 2019, 08:24:29 PM »
Quote from: W on December 03, 2019, 05:39:29 AM
I obviously have personal biases but based on early states and Sanders' support being historically underestimated I'd have to say Sanders, but it will by no means be a large victory. My prediction is a 2v2 between Biden and Sanders which stays neck and neck at times but eventually Sanders edges him out.

Sanders: 35% chance
Biden: 30% chance
Buttigieg: 20% chance
Warren: 15% chance

No one else has a chance at this point unless something happens to one of these 4.

This is a reasonable prediction.
Logged
here2view
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,693
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.13, S: -1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 03, 2019, 08:59:44 PM »
Biden 30%
Sanders 25%
Warren 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.244 seconds with 15 queries.