Serious toss up states?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 20, 2024, 05:37:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  Serious toss up states?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Serious toss up states?  (Read 2583 times)
UK Stu
Rookie
**
Posts: 33


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 16, 2004, 05:00:28 PM »

On the predictions page, people have got loads of states down as toss ups, like Arkansas & Missouri, as well as the obvious ones. What do you reckon? I don't see very many changing from 2000.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2004, 05:21:00 PM »

"Tossup" all depends on the margin that you think your candidate will win by.  If you think that Kerry will win by a 15 point margin, then Montana might be a swing state.

Serious tossups (All very likely to go to whoever wins):
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Oregon
New Mexico

Less Serious (If the election is 50-50 then these probably won't switch):
Florida
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Iowa
Arkansas

Logged
zachman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2004, 06:25:17 PM »

New Hampshire will be the first state to switch! I'd put it at the top of the most serious swing state list.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2004, 06:31:45 PM »

Really?  All the polls I've seen show Bush consistantly ahead there by about 2%.  
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2004, 07:28:13 PM »

IMO, there are only 5 states in the country, that if the election were held right now, we could never say who will win.  They are West Virgina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico.  The rest, although some might be close, would definetely go one way or the other.  

Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,479


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2004, 07:33:49 PM »

I think Pennsylvania is less serious of one.  Kerry is up 49-43.  I'm thinking only the die hard conservatives in Central PA will vote Shurb in droves.  Eastern and Southwestern PA will defintiely go Kerry 2-1.  
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,464


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2004, 01:58:40 AM »

Really?  All the polls I've seen show Bush consistantly ahead there by about 2%.  

according to dcpoliticalreport.com

The last 2 N.H polls are  Kerry 49-45 & Kerry 47-45
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,464


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2004, 02:00:23 AM »

I would put Fla in the very serious & Or in the less serious.  Bush is ahead in the latest Oregon poll, but I just don't think Bush will be able to carry one of the most enviromental states with his record on the environment
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.218 seconds with 14 queries.