Serious toss up states?
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UK Stu
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« on: May 16, 2004, 05:00:28 PM »
On the predictions page, people have got loads of states down as toss ups, like Arkansas & Missouri, as well as the obvious ones. What do you reckon? I don't see very many changing from 2000.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2004, 05:21:00 PM »
"Tossup" all depends on the margin that you think your candidate will win by.  If you think that Kerry will win by a 15 point margin, then Montana might be a swing state.

Serious tossups (All very likely to go to whoever wins):
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Oregon
New Mexico

Less Serious (If the election is 50-50 then these probably won't switch):
Florida
New Hampshire
West Virginia
Iowa
Arkansas
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zachman
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2004, 06:25:17 PM »
New Hampshire will be the first state to switch! I'd put it at the top of the most serious swing state list.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2004, 06:31:45 PM »
Really?  All the polls I've seen show Bush consistantly ahead there by about 2%.  
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2004, 07:28:13 PM »
IMO, there are only 5 states in the country, that if the election were held right now, we could never say who will win.  They are West Virgina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico.  The rest, although some might be close, would definetely go one way or the other.  
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2004, 07:33:49 PM »
I think Pennsylvania is less serious of one.  Kerry is up 49-43.  I'm thinking only the die hard conservatives in Central PA will vote Shurb in droves.  Eastern and Southwestern PA will defintiely go Kerry 2-1.  
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2004, 01:58:40 AM »
Quote from: Lunar on May 16, 2004, 06:31:45 PM
Really?  All the polls I've seen show Bush consistantly ahead there by about 2%.  

according to dcpoliticalreport.com

The last 2 N.H polls are  Kerry 49-45 & Kerry 47-45
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2004, 02:00:23 AM »
I would put Fla in the very serious & Or in the less serious.  Bush is ahead in the latest Oregon poll, but I just don't think Bush will be able to carry one of the most enviromental states with his record on the environment
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