Rate Georgia (Class II/Perdue)

[ElectionsGuy]

This is the regularly scheduled Senate race. The special will be done in 2 days. Inside elections recently moved this to likely R, making 2/3 ratings Likely R, but I decided to keep the lean D rating in there as I know this is a case where the pundit class is pretty out of touch. 1 vote for a rating, and 1 vote to decide if you think a runoff will happen. If you do think a runoff will happen, vote for the rating that would best describe the runoff, not the general election.

Lean R/No Runoff. Iowa is very close between lean/likely R btw, could also use some more votes.

Vote or change vote in previous threads here:

AL AZ CO IA ME NC

No Election: 35
Safe D: 6
Likely D: 1
Lean D:
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 1
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 10
No Election: 30

Democrats: 43
Republicans: 44

Runoffs



Pickups

AL AZ CO

Net: D+1

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, 55-44 Perdue. His opponents are raising very little money, Perdue is popular, and the elections there, as we saw last year, are rigged hopelessly in favor of Republicans.

[TWTown]

Lean R. I am convinced that the Georgia Senate races will go as a set and barring some small nail biter that the winner of either race will win both. As of now, this scenario slightly favors the GOP but the state as a whole is clearly trending D and only a slight change could result in this race shifting more favorably to the Democrats. This is probably the most convenient way to get to a Democrat Senate so this race will be highly contested.

[QAnonKelly]

I say Toss Up bc of the runoff. Imo it just adds a layer of variability to the whole thing that’s just hard to predict.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Safe R, 55-44 Perdue. His opponents are raising very little money, Perdue is popular, and the elections there, as we saw last year, are rigged hopelessly in favor of Republicans.

John Barrow and Lindy Miller got 48 percent in a low turnout runoff where youth and minority turnout dropped off a cliff. Him out performing not only that but his 2014 bid is pure delusion.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely R

Yeah, GA is trending D, but it’s still a R+6 / R+7 state ; besides Perdue is fairly popular and should be able to run a bit ahead of Trump with minorities and college whites, then add to that fact that democrats have no credible candidate and it’s clear that this race is fools gold for democrats, to say the least

[Calthrina950]

Likely R

Yeah, GA is trending D, but it’s still a R+6 / R+7 state ; besides Perdue is fairly popular and should be able to run a bit ahead of Trump with minorities and college whites, then add to that fact that democrats have no credible candidate and it’s clear that this race is fools gold for democrats, to say the least

Not sure if I would call this race fool's gold, but I definitely do think that Perdue is favored, as things stand now. Neither Tomlinson nor Ossoff, in my view, are well poised to beat Perdue. Stacey Abrams and Lucy McBath would be more formidable candidates (especially Abrams), but neither is running.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely R

Yeah, GA is trending D, but it’s still a R+6 / R+7 state ; besides Perdue is fairly popular and should be able to run a bit ahead of Trump with minorities and college whites, then add to that fact that democrats have no credible candidate and it’s clear that this race is fools gold for democrats, to say the least

Not sure if I would call this race fool's gold, but I definitely do think that Perdue is favored, as things stand now. Neither Tomlinson nor Ossoff, in my view, are well poised to beat Perdue. Stacey Abrams and Lucy McBath would be more formidable candidates (especially Abrams), but neither is running.

It’s fools gold, on the paper GA looks competitive for democrats but it’s hides the fact that democrats have basically a ceiling of 48% which is very hard to surpass.
GA is to democrats what MN is to republicans, a potential target which always disappoint them.

And no, McBath wouldn’t have been a great candidate, gun control outside of Atlanta and its inner suburbs is a losing issue.

[Calthrina950]

Likely R

Yeah, GA is trending D, but it’s still a R+6 / R+7 state ; besides Perdue is fairly popular and should be able to run a bit ahead of Trump with minorities and college whites, then add to that fact that democrats have no credible candidate and it’s clear that this race is fools gold for democrats, to say the least

Not sure if I would call this race fool's gold, but I definitely do think that Perdue is favored, as things stand now. Neither Tomlinson nor Ossoff, in my view, are well poised to beat Perdue. Stacey Abrams and Lucy McBath would be more formidable candidates (especially Abrams), but neither is running.

It’s fools gold, on the paper GA looks competitive for democrats but it’s hides the fact that democrats have basically a ceiling of 48% which is very hard to surpass.
GA is to democrats what MN is to republicans, a potential target which always disappoint them.

And no, McBath wouldn’t have been a great candidate, gun control outside of Atlanta and its inner suburbs is a losing issue.

I've argued on here before that Democrats are struggling to find the last few percentage points which they need for victory, but demographic changes do seem to be fueling Georgia's leftward movement. It wouldn't surprise me if it starts voting Democratic again sometime during the next decade. As for McBath, I'm not sure how much of a difference this would make. The Atlanta metropolitan area is becoming more and more Democratic, and it's only a matter of time before it has enough votes to outpoll rural and exurban Georgia. And given polarization, I doubt that she would lose any support which Abrams, who is just as liberal as her, garnered.

[Xing]

Georgia will never go Democratic... until it does. The Democrats have a hard ceiling.... which seems to rise every year, and could well be at or above 50% by this point. Lean R for now, I'd guess that Perdue gets about 51% and thus avoids a run-off, but Republicans really can't afford to sleep at the wheel here. Eventually, enough growth in the Atlanta area will make it impossible for Lucy to pull the football away from Charlie Brown in time, and eventually might be sooner than we all think.

[Gracile]

Lean R. This one could be pretty close, but it's hard to see Democrats getting over the required 50% needed to win.

[Calthrina950]

Georgia will never go Democratic... until it does. The Democrats have a hard ceiling.... which seems to rise every year, and could well be at or above 50% by this point. Lean R for now, I'd guess that Perdue gets about 51% and thus avoids a run-off, but Republicans really can't afford to sleep at the wheel here. Eventually, enough growth in the Atlanta area will make it impossible for Lucy to pull the football away from Charlie Brown in time, and eventually might be sooner than we all think.

I certainly agree. Fulton, Clayton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Douglas, Rockdale, and Henry Counties will eventually be too much for the ~120 rural/exurban Republican counties to overcome. Kemp's enormous margins in those counties were enough for him to barely defeat Abrams last year, but given demographic trends, it will not be enough as the 2020s progress.

[Politician]

Lean R/Tilt No Runoff.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean R/Tilt No Runoff.

[S019]

Lean R/Lean Runoff

[Suburbia]

Lean R/Runoff

I think this will be one of the top races in the Senate cycle.

Both McConnell and Schumer will be used nationally as partisan targets

[Pericles]

Tilt R but slightly closer to Lean R than tossup. Georgia is definitely competitive though and people who say it is "fool's gold" are delusional (just like those who said PA was fool's gold for Republicans in 2015).