NC-PPP/End Citizens United (D): Cunningham +2

[Politician]

Cunningham 45
Tillis 43

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/461979-tillis-trails-democratic-senate-challenger-by-2-points-poll

[President Johnson]

Internal and way under 50% over a year out. Doesn't mean a whole lot. This one probably starts as pure tossup race and may decide over senate control if Trump goes down on election night. Hopefully Tillis loses his primary to give Democrats a better shot.

[Pollster]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

[Young Conservative]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

[AngryBudgie]

Not that it means anything but an incumbent senator hasnt been re-elected to this seat since 1996. Wouldnt surprise me if that continues with Tillis.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm with Cal! Donating to him at the end of the month.

[Young Conservative]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

[ElectionsGuy]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

Tillis is the one with the divisive primary. Democrats have essentially already coalesced around Cunningham. Ask Martha McSally how that primary distraction worked out for her

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

Lol. Tillis has a low approval rate because many ultra right wing voters think he is too moderate, these voters won’t vote for a liberal like Cunningham.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

Lol. Tillis has a low approval rate because many ultra right wing voters think he is too moderate, these voters won’t vote for a liberal like Cunningham.

That’s a bold assumption to make when we have seen time and again voters buck candidates they otherwise ideologically agree with simply if they don’t like them. Or alternatively just leave that race blank. Tillis can’t afford even as many as 5% of Trump voters defecting or leaving the race blank. That’s a concept a lot of Republicans have a hard time grasping on this website

Also, you seriously think the sole reason Tillis is underperforming Trump’s Numbers so severely is because of hardcore Republicans? That’s...highly suspect. You don’t think any high numbers of moderates approve of Trump and disapprove of Tillis? This is like the Jeff Flake saga all over again

[Frenchrepublican]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

Lol. Tillis has a low approval rate because many ultra right wing voters think he is too moderate, these voters won’t vote for a liberal like Cunningham.

That’s a bold assumption to make when we have seen time and again voters buck candidates they otherwise ideologically agree with simply if they don’t like them. Or alternatively just leave that race blank. Tillis can’t afford even as many as 5% of Trump voters defecting or leaving the race blank. That’s a concept a lot of Republicans have a hard time grasping on this website

Also, you seriously think the sole reason Tillis is underperforming Trump’s Numbers so severely is because of hardcore Republicans? That’s...highly suspect. You don’t think any high numbers of moderates approve of Trump and disapprove of Tillis? This is like the Jeff Flake saga all over again

A better comparison would be Cornyn (rather than Flake). And no, there are basically no recent example of conservative voters voting out a Republican Senator (in a general election) simply because they don’t like him.

Anyway the fact that Cunningham is leading by only 2 in a PPP poll, which is using a D+7 sample (voter identification not voter registration) and where Trump is losing by 3, shows that Tillis is not that vulnerable, to be honest.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Ok dude. I’m fine with Republicans being unreasonably overconfident. An inverse of 2016 sounds good by me

[ElectionsGuy]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

I didn't say he was a strong incumbent, he's not. But French is right on this one, his approvals are not meaningful at this point in time. Being down only 2 is not a terrible position to be in. He was down by an average of 2 points against Hagan in 2014 and ended up winning by 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

French is not right, this poll, is accurate and KS, AZ, CO and NC are keys to the Senate, minus AL.

Biden said it best that Trump needs to stop talking about his Ukraine deal and start governing. The GOP is too tied to the 279 EC, and Trump has skirted the law by not supplying witnesses to House impeachment proceedings.

KS poll shows us there is cracks in the red wall and so does KY-Gov that will be coming soon in Nov

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Tillis could be going the way of Dole, especially if the primary weakens him.

Lol...that’s what you take from an internal poll a year out?

It's a pretty terrible poll for Tillis when you consider the fact that Cunningham has like 10% name recognition. Challengers tend to poll better as time goes on (look at 2018) because their name recognition goes up.

This race is looking as if it's Lean D if Tills gets renominated. Being down by 2 14 months before election day against a challenger literally nobody has heard about is a horrible position for an incumbent.

Lol. No. Cunningham is unknown so he is polling like a generic D option. That won't last.

If there's only 12% undecided then yeah, they probably prompted with Republican and Democratic after their names, and that's the responses they get. They're just trying to frame it in a positive light, when in fact Dems always seem to lead in everything remotely competitive a year or more before the election.

This is a poll where Tillis has -17 approvals in a sample where Trump is +2. Let’s stop pretending he’s a strong incumbent.

I didn't say he was a strong incumbent, he's not. But French is right on this one, his approvals are not meaningful at this point in time. Being down only 2 is not a terrible position to be in. He was down by an average of 2 points against Hagan in 2014 and ended up winning by 2.

Depending on the demographics of those undecideds it’s terrible. He can’t afford to underperform Trump at all. And 2014 was a wave election, so not sure how comparing that to 2020 is relevant unless you’re expecting another last minute Republican wave (which could happen, sure, but I wouldn’t bet on it unless the Democratic Presidential nominee is somehow worse than Clinton)

You would seriously think NC was as Republican as Kentucky the way Republicans on this website act about Tillis

[Frenchrepublican]

Ok dude. I’m fine with Republicans being unreasonably overconfident. An inverse of 2016 sounds good by me

If there is someone who is overconfident about his party’s prospects it’s you, to be honest. (Texas will vote D and Collin county is toss-up).


More seriously, if Tillis is down by 2 in a poll where Trump is down by 3, I like his chances.

[Politician]

Ok dude. I’m fine with Republicans being unreasonably overconfident. An inverse of 2016 sounds good by me

If there is someone who is overconfident about his party’s prospects it’s you, to be honest. (Texas will vote D and Collin county is toss-up).


More seriously, if Tillis is down by 2 in a poll where Trump is down by 3, I like his chances.

Ok that was awesome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ok dude. I’m fine with Republicans being unreasonably overconfident. An inverse of 2016 sounds good by me

If there is someone who is overconfident about his party’s prospects it’s you, to be honest. (Texas will vote D and Collin county is toss-up).


More seriously, if Tillis is down by 2 in a poll where Trump is down by 3, I like his chances.

Do you know what a blue wave is? It means Dems performance above expectationd. Pelosi says she is not afraid of  impeachment, know. She now wants Articles sent to floor

[Badger]

In fairness, doesn't a lot of Tillis has low approval rating stem from many Republicans thinking he's not conservative / trumpy enough? Does one really think that, assuming Tillis wins renomination, aren't going to turn out to support Trump and overwhelmingly still pull the lever for tell us while they're there? Especially after Trump and what's his name running against him in the primary both cut ads for him on TV and the internet?

Although I expressed optimistic enthusiasm - - or was it enthusiastic optimism? - - over Sabato moving this race to toss up just a few minutes ago, upon reconsideration Tilles seems like the Republican incumbent most likely to have his numbers shoot up after his primary.