1984:if its obvious Reagan had alheimzers

[frostyfreeze]

In 1984 president Reagan won ia landslide what if its painfully obvious REAgan had alheimzers?/

[morgankingsley]

Mondale wins all states he lost by less than 10

[Continential]

Mondale wins all states he lost by less than 10

I think that Mondale would win the debates and narrowly lose.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Is it entirely impossible that Reagan could have lost in this scenario?

I imagine he would have done horribly in the debates and had a lot of bad gaffes on the campaign trail.

[bagelman]

Reagan steps down and the GOP wins with Bush.

[dw93]

If it's noticeable before the general election, Reagan pulls an LBJ and declines to seek another term, Bush gets nominated, and wins the general by around the same margin he won 1988 OTL. If its noticeable in the general election campaign, Reagan narrowly wins the election and steps down afterward.

[Mister Mets]

If it's that obvious, Bush would be the nominee. And win about 40 states. There's a slight question of what running mate he'd choose, since Quayle was only in the Senate for four years at that point. Process of elimination suggests Jack Kemp (Bob Dole had been on a losing ticket before, Elizabeth Dole had just started as Secretary of Transportation, John McCain hadn't even been elected to the Senate)

[connally68]

In a way it was already obvious just look at his performances in the debates. His numbers were in the high 30s in 1983, and Nixon's were the high 30s too in 1971. They both really rebounded. Biden has the same exact problem right now; however, he is the best chance by far to win back the Oval Office for the Democrats.

[morgankingsley]

I just don't see how Mondale would win that year, no matter what. All I can see is a closer race but that's it

[Alben Barkley]

In a way it was already obvious just look at his performances in the debates. His numbers were in the high 30s in 1983, and Nixon's were the high 30s too in 1971. They both really rebounded. Biden has the same exact problem right now; however, he is the best chance by far to win back the Oval Office for the Democrats.

?

I can’t find a single Gallup poll with Nixon approval under 40, or even underwater at all, in 1971.

And while Reagan’s approval rating was pretty weak at the very start of 1983, it steadily went up over the year as the economy improved.

I don’t see either situation as comparable with Trump right now. Never mind that there is no reason to assume that because some presidents 30 or 40 years ago may have “rebounded,” Trump will too. This isn’t a real trend; Jimmy Carter’s approval rating was under 40 for most of 1979, he lost. HW’s was sky high for most of 1991; he DECLINED rapidly and lost. No reason to assume Trump will go up and not down, especially if the economy goes bad.

What’s more telling, and more worrying for Trump, is that NEVER in the history of polling have incumbents done anywhere near as bad against prospective challengers from this point as he does. The single worst such poll ever was a single poll showing Carter down by 4 in 1979. Trump’s BEST polls have him down by more than that, in most high quality polling. In many he’s down by double digits. And not even just to Biden — the supposedly “unelectable” Elizabeth Warren is crushing him in most polls too.

[RC]

25th Amendment would probably be invoked. Bush is president, wins by a lesser margin than Reagan, probably closer to the 1980 results. Bush wins re-election in 1988.

[morgankingsley]

?

I can’t find a single Gallup poll with Nixon approval under 40, or even underwater at all, in 1971.

And while Reagan’s approval rating was pretty weak at the very start of 1983, it steadily went up over the year as the economy improved.

Yeah, I don't see how the majority of Atlas thinks that Nixon had any form of a legitimate chance of losing a second term in 1972

[538Electoral]

Reagan does a bit worse than he does in the actual election but still wins a solid victory.