Who will win the CA-Dem primary? (September 2019)

[Sir Mohamed]

Who does Atlas think will win the CA-Dem primary on Super Tuesday? As of September 2019. This is NOT about who you want to win.

I have a feeling Warren will win and then become the clear frontrunner for the nomination.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The more things shake out the more it seems that Sanders is the candidate made for California.  I don't see Biden retaining his support and Warren's base is too white. 

[bagelman]

Harris is falling. I expect Warren to be a good fit for CA.

[MT Treasurer]

Biden because he’ll almost certainly be the Democratic nominee

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden because he’ll almost certainly be the Democratic nominee

Biden may have, as of today, the most reasonable path to the nod, but polls have shown him struggling in CA. And I expect him to lose more ground between now and March 2020. He would be favored if he wins 3 of 4 early contests due to rising momentum, but I don't see it. My prediction is he only wins SC by an underwhelming margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie, if polls are right about a Bernie surge

[Cassandra]

Biden if he's still competitive on Super Tuesday, perhaps Harris if he falls. Contrary to popular opinion, I can't see Warren taking California unless she just crushes the early states. Her base is way to white.

[Burke Bro]

It'll probably be a 4-way race between Biden/Warren/Sanders/Harris, but I think Warren will come out on top.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bernie wins but not until they count all the provisional ballots over a month later, so it doesn't help him much with momentum.

[Xing]

Gun to my head, Warren ekes out a win, but I do think it'll be very competitive between at least three candidates.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Lean Warren, I guess. But...

Bernie wins but not until they count all the provisional ballots over a month later, so it doesn't help him much with momentum.

Yeah, I think it’s going to be super close. We probably won’t know for at least a week. Though, I think it’s literally just the presidential primaries other than maybe some random special elections.

[Mr. Smith]

For now, Harris.

She probably winds up with a similar map to Feinstein's 2018 re-election as things are now, with Bernie roughly getting de Leon's side of things, and Biden/Warren roughly splitting pluralities left and right in-between for second place.

Granted there's room yet to improve, and room yet to decline some more.

[Gracile]

I'd say CA is probably a tossup for now, and it depends a lot on how the early states shake out. Also, I really don't see a winning path for Harris here, but I think she could take a sizable chunk of voters that it would make a difference for one of the other leading candidates.

[Thunder98]

I wonder who win San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties? In 2008 and 2016, they voted for the anti-establishment Candidates. Sanders is most likely to do well in the College towns of San Luis Obispo and Isla Vista, while Warren could do a decent amount of votes in the very rich areas such as Montecito and Santa Barbara.

2008:

Santa Barbara County: Obama 51.48% - Clinton 42.15%

SLO County: Obama 50.01% - Clinton 40.85%

2016:

Santa Barbara County: Sanders 52.43% - Clinton 46.87%

SLO County: Sanders 52.58% - Clinton 46.67%

[Shadows]

Depends on what happens in Iowa, NH & Nevada, all of which could go to anyone. Sanders or Biden have a chance to win all 3 while Warren can win atleast 2.

By CA - 1 of Bernie or Warren will be finished depending on the early states & may even have to drop out. CA polls are irrelevant @ this point. NH or Iowa will decide CA !

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said Sanders, but now its Warren

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Harris or Warren. Definitely not Sanders.