In retrospect: What if Bernie won the Iowa Caucus at these margins

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Scenario 1: ~0.25%, same margin as Hillary did in OTL

Scenario 2: ~3%, same margin that Ted Cruz beat Trump in OTL. Something like 51.5% to 48.5%

Scenario 3: ~5%, something like 52.5% to 47.5%

Scenario 4: ~10%, something like 55% to 45%

I'm guessing scenario 1 would have resulted in a tougher fight for Hillary but she would still win. Scenario 2 would be a close Hillary win. Scenario 3 would put her in danger of legitimately losing. Scenario 4 would entail her probably losing.

Scenario 2 would entail Hillary having an even harder time in the general, Scenario 3 would have her doing markedly worse in the general. When it comes to Scenario 4 I'm guessing Bernie would lose due to not performing as well in affluent white areas.

[Pericles]

Bernie would have won (the general election against Trump).

[Epaminondas]

No change outside of 4, which was never on the cards.

The press was in the bag and most older Dem voters had bought into the Clinton propaganda - her march to victory would just have started 2 weeks later in South Carolina.

The outcome in the election was baked in by the Iowa result.



A +10 Sanders win might have shaken the Clinton backers, but I'm not even sure. This was about more than just a primary. In many way Trump was more palatable to Clinton financial supporters than Bernie was.

[Xing]

Scenario 1: Worse optics for Clinton, maybe Sanders would do slightly better in NV, but things would go pretty much the same way after SC.

Scenario 2: More people would probably start to take Sanders seriously as a candidate, and a few other states that were close probably would've gone his way (MA, MO, etc.) but Clinton still would've won by a decent margin, as I doubt Sanders would've done more than a couple points better in the South.

Scenario 3: In this scenario, I could see Sanders winning NV, which would be horrible optics for Clinton, even with a big win in SC. The race would probably be quite a bit closer, though I think Clinton's margins would still be strong enough in the South for her to narrowly win.

Scenario 4: In this scenario, Sanders is winning significantly more voters in the Northern half of the country, and I think the Clinton camp would likely panic. Two double digit losses in a row, followed by a likely loss in NV would really make Clinton look completely dependent on support in the South, which probably wouldn't be strong enough in this scenario to offset her losses elsewhere. Whether or not the DNC of 2016 would accept Sanders getting more pledged delegates and wouldn't try to give the nomination to Clinton through superdelegates, though, is something I can't answer, and so I could see a very chaotic convention.