I know I posted a similar post before, but I'd really like to hear some Atlas ideas!
Election Day arrives and of the 105,425,985 Presidential Election voters, 99.981% vote exactly as IRL. The only differences are
10,000 real-life Bush voters in FL (but none in Palm Beach County) vote Gore instead;
3,000 real-life Gore voters in IA vote Bush instead;
3,500 real-life Gore voters in OR vote Bush instead; and
3,500 real-life Gore voters in WI vote Bush instead.
These vote switchers are fairly evenly spread across the state, giving rise to similar county trends as IRL. Here is the map:
Bush/Cheney 47.87% / 264 EV --> 271 EVGore/Lieberman 48.38% / 267 EVGore carried FL by 19,463 votes, while Bush carried IA by 1,856 and WI by 1,292. In OR, however, Bush led by only 235, and OR was not yet called as of early Wednesday morning.
(IRL, OR was finally called on the morning of Friday, Nov. 10. In this ATL, however, a thorough recount, if/when it were to take place, would show that, indeed, 235 more Oregonians voted for Bush than Gore).
In short, in this ATL Bush won.. Bush won 271 EVs to Gore's 267, just as IRL.
In Palm Beach County, Florida, hundreds of voters were confused by the butterfly ballots, just as IRL. A statistically improbably high number of votes in Palm Beach were cast for Buchanan, rather than Gore, the exact same number as IRL. (No one notices because Gore overperformed in Palm Beach, just as IRL). FL is first called for Gore before the polls closed in the heavily Republican Panhandle, just as IRL. Republican Secretary of State Katherine Harris would have overseen any recount, just as IRL.
But nobody cares. Instead, all eyes are focused on Oregon. Rather than on a state whose governor is the GOP nominee's brother, attention is focused on a state with a liberal governor, John Kitzhaber (D). It is pointed out more than once that Nader and his "Pacific Party" as it is known in OR, received 5.04% of the OR vote, the highest percentage of any state.
Well... what happens next?
Do the networks retract their call of FL for Gore as IRL?
Do the butterfly ballots as well as other FL issues (felons, the timing of the initial call) go unnoticed, perhaps affecting elections in 2004 and beyond? Do the FL election reforms that took place IRL never take place?
Do the conservative to right-wing voters of eastern OR receive more than usual attention? (Lake County, OR voted 76% - 19% for Bush, after voting 61% - 26% for Dole four years earlier).
And finally, the obligatory question: In factory and hospital cafeterias, teachers lounges, hair and nail salons, bars and taverns across the country... what is the buzz?
Anything else? Do left-wing parties come under even harsher criticism than IRL? Do other parties still get 11% of the OR vote in 2016 as IRL? Go!
