WNN Poll Report: Tmth struggling for re-election + Other Feds do worse

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sample Composition:

28 responses

Labor - 32%
Federalist - 21%
PAX - 14%
Montfortian - 14%
Confederate - 11%
ACP - 7%
Ind - 0%
PUP - 0%

Total Lab+PAX - 46%
Total Fed+ACP+Mont - 42%

South - 43%
Lincoln - 29%
Fremont - 29%

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In the last week , the nation has been rattled by the news of Tmth declaring on discord that he would not run for re-election. Later, following questioning by Tack50, Tmth gave a more measured statement that suggested he had not yet actually made up his mind. Perhaps part of the cause of this indecision/reluctance to run again is that Tmth is struggling for re-election. Our survey finds that Tmth's approvals are just 57%, down from 70% last month. Meanwhile, his VP's approvals have actually increased, from 74% to 79%.

Further, in the marquee match-up between Tmth and Adam Griffin, our survey finds a tie, with both candidates earning 46% of the vote. Tmth also struggles in other scenarios, frequently trailing:

Against Tack50: Tack leads 50%-43%
Against Peanut: Tied at 46%
Against Jimmy: Jimmy leads 50%-46%
Against OnProg: OnProg leads 50%-46%
Against DFW: DFW leads 50%-43%
Against TSA: TSA leads 54%-43%
Against YE: YE leads 54%-43%
Against Scott: Scott leads 50%-43%
Against Peebs: Tied at 43%

Only two head to head scenarios actually find Tmth leading. Specifically, he leads Zaybay 50%-43%, and leads Wulfric 54%-32%.

We also tested several three-way contests:

ASV (F) vs Tmth (I) v Tack50: Tack 46%, Tmth 43%, ASV 4%
Tmth v Peanut v DFW/Fthagn (I): Peanut 46%, Tmth 36%, DFW/Fthagn 4%
Tmth v Jimmy v MB: Jimmy 43%, Tmth 39%, MB 18%

But, as much as Tmth struggles in a re-election bid, other Feds would do even worse:

LT v Peanut: Peanut leads 61%-36%
Koopa v Jimmy: Jimmy leads 61%-39%
YT v Griffin: Griffin leads 57%-36%
ASV v Tack50: Tack leads 82%-14%

Looking Deeper into the Data, it is clear why Tmth and other Feds struggle. Voters are simply not confident or energized by Fed Leadership. Specifically:

While many respondents said that the President was not a factor in their midterm vote, and 1 respondent did not vote in the midterms, the balance said, 55%-44%, that their vote was intended to show opposition to the President.

Voters said 43%-39% that Tmth lacks a real agenda

Just 39% of Voters were willing to say that Atlasia is heading in the right direction (though a further 18% marked "Neutral").

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Other Issues Tested:

Voters agreed that Fremont's Parliament Works, 86%-4%
Voters oppose a Federal Parliament, 61%-25%
Voters approve of Atlasia Itself, 82%-7%
Voters agree that Tmth is better than Weatherboy at being President, 68%-14%

Among those in Lincoln, 50% say that the Lincoln Parliament is Working and needs no changes, while 37% say it needs fixes but should not be repealed. 13% support Repeal.

Among those in Fremont or the South, 35% say that the Lincoln Parliament is Working and needs no changes, while 30% say it needs fixes but should not be repealed. 35% support Repeal.

36% of Voters are satisfied with the current composition of Congress. 36% believe it to be too leftist, 21% say it isn't leftist enough, 4% say it isn't Confederate Enough, and 4% say it isn't Montfortian Enough.

Full List of Approval Ratings

Scott: 82%
Tack: 79%
Lumine: 79%
Peanut: 75%
Yankee: 75%
Jimmy: 71%
Peebs: 68%
YE: 68%
Pyro: 64%
TSA: 64%
Griffin: 61%
Koopa: 61%
OnProg: 61%
YT: 61%
Tmth: 57%
DFW: 57%
Wulfric: 50%
LT: 46%
MB: 46%
Zaybay: 43%
Fhtagn: 39%
ASV: 29%

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Finally, we tested an open primary for both sides.

Preferred Nominee for The Left:

Griffin: 36%
Tack: 7%
Peanut: 7%
TSA: 7%
Wulfric: 7%
Scott: 7%
DFW: 4%
YE: 4%
Truman: 4%
MB: 4%
Lumine: 4%
Ishan: 4%
Jimmy: 4%
"idk": 4%
Zaybay: 0%
OnProg: 0%

Preferred Nominee for The Right:

Tmth: 47%
Koopa: 14%
ASV: 11%
LT: 7%
Razze: 4%
MB: 4%
Wulfric: 4%
Lumine: 4%
"Nobody": 4%
"N/A": 4%
YT: 0%

[Former President tack50]

Glorious news! Happy to see I'm the 2nd most popular officeholder (tied with Lumine) already lol

[fhtagn]

Imagine being such a partisan hack that doesn't pay attention to the game that someone would legitimately think Weatherboy was a better President than tmth.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

why are people voting disapprove on myself and fhtagn lol, must be personal disapprove votes considering we collectively have introduced the majority of the bills so far this congress and are participating well

[fhtagn]

why are people voting disapprove on myself and fhtagn lol, must be personal disapprove votes considering we collectively have introduced the majority of the bills so far this congress and are participating well

We all know approval numbers, especially in Atlasia, are almost always personal, and have nothing to do with how well someone does their job.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Humbled to be the most popular elected officeholder in Atlasia thus far.   Great honer!

[Vern]

Well, I wasn't include in the poll...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Well, I wasn't include in the poll...

[Leinad]

Sample Composition:

28 responses

Labor - 32%
Federalist - 21%
PAX - 14%
Montfortian - 14%
Confederate - 11%
ACP - 7%
Ind - 0%
PUP - 0%

Total Lab+PAX - 46%
Total Fed+ACP+Mont - 42%

Since these aren't adjusted I'll take a bit of a stab at a better estimate:

The Lab-Fed numbers are actually 33%-29%, so a difference of 4 instead of 9. 5 off.

While the coalition totals are 38%-38% (78 people each), so it's 4 off.

So, add about 4 or 5 to the Fed numbers and it should be slightly closer.

Also with the sample size the MoE is roughly 17% so...add that as well

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sample Composition:

28 responses

Labor - 32%
Federalist - 21%
PAX - 14%
Montfortian - 14%
Confederate - 11%
ACP - 7%
Ind - 0%
PUP - 0%

Total Lab+PAX - 46%
Total Fed+ACP+Mont - 42%

Since these aren't adjusted I'll take a bit of a stab at a better estimate:

The Lab-Fed numbers are actually 33%-29%, so a difference of 4 instead of 9. 5 off.

While the coalition totals are 38%-38% (78 people each), so it's 4 off.

So, add about 4 or 5 to the Fed numbers and it should be slightly closer.

Also with the sample size the MoE is roughly 17% so...add that as well

Adjusting each of the head-to-heads 4 points in favor of the Federalists puts Tmth ahead of Griffin, Peanut, and Peebs; puts him at a tie with Jimmy and OnProg. However, Tack, DFW, TSA, YE, and Scott are still ahead of him. All the Alternative Feds still trail.

[Adam Griffin]

The truth is that polling is very difficult and inaccurate in Atlasia unless you manage to sample half or more of the electorate (something I've always insisted on in my exit polling projects). I've been guilty of weighing results to infer what polls really show as well, but...it's definitely not a perfect science at all in Fantasyland.

Something I have noticed from this first round of polling from multiple sources: a lot of hardcore partisans (whether formally affiliated or not) are the ones answering these polls.

I'll also just say this: historically, the Left (in generic terms) has always overperformed in polling relative to election results, and I've always underperformed in polling relative to election results. Make of that what you will!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The truth is that polling is very difficult and inaccurate in Atlasia unless you manage to sample half or more of the electorate (something I've always insisted on in my exit polling projects). I've been guilty of weighing results to infer what polls really show as well, but...it's definitely not a perfect science at all in Fantasyland.

Something I have noticed from this first round of polling from multiple sources: a lot of hardcore partisans (whether formally affiliated or not) are the ones answering these polls.

I'll also just say this: historically, the Left (in generic terms) has always overperformed in polling relative to election results, and I've always underperformed in polling relative to election results. Make of that what you will!

With respect to my polling, this left overperformance has been inconsistent at best. In April, my polls showed 49% of voters wanting a leftist congress, but when the actual election happened, 55% of voters first prefed a Labor or Peace candidate. In March, a similar poll to this showed ridiculous leads for Tmth in nearly every matchup. My big entrance poll project in February showed a first round of 49%-42%-7%, essentially identical to the real results of 50%-42%-6%. I could go on.

You could make an argument with respect to this poll and would have a great argument with respect to my December polling, though the question wording I used for that was a bit unorthodox. But with respect to this poll, I'll note that it's less favorable to the left than the other polls I've seen (YE's and Ninja's).

So, TL;DR, The WNN has avoided the leftist bias that exists in many other polling companies, and perhaps may even have a slight Federalist House effect.