2020: Donald Trump vs Joe Biden (State by State: Montana)

[😥]

Safe D (Biden) 201 EVs
Tilt/Lean R (Trump) 11 EVs
Safe R (Trump) 103 EVs

Biden: 201
Trump: 114

[MT Treasurer]

This is gonna be a fun thread, lol. Anyway, Biden’s not exactly the best fit for the state, but I really don’t see how he (or any other Democratic nominee) does worse than Clinton here. Safe R, Trump +13-15.

[S019]

Safe R

[TML]

I expect a Romney-esque margin in this case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Solid R, Bullock going for prez instead of Senate made this state an R state again.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Safe R, Trump +12.

[Xing]

Safe R. I think the best that any Democratic candidate could do against Trump would be a high single-digit loss, and that would be under the most favorable conditions.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Solid R, Bullock going for prez instead of Senate made this state an R state again.

Montana has only voted Democratic for President two times since 1948, I don't think Bullock deciding not to run for President magically turned it into an R state overnight.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Safe R

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R and those who are giving another answer are dumb delusionnal.

Trump wins 57/41

[User155815470020]

Why is this up for debate? Montana is not a competitive state. Sure, MT has one Democratic Senator in Jon Tester, but the state has not voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election since 1992. MT is safe R, even if the Democratic ticket was Bullock/Tester and the DNC was held in MT.

[TML]

Why is this up for debate? Montana is not a competitive state. Sure, MT has one Democratic Senator in Jon Tester, but the state has not voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election since 1992. MT is safe R, even if the Democratic ticket was Bullock/Tester and the DNC was held in MT.

I agree that Republicans are favored under normal circumstances, but I also think (based on observed patterns over the last 25-30 years or so) that Democrats may at least come very close in this state (within 5%) if they are winning big nationally, as evidenced by the 1996 and 2008 results. I don’t think Biden would be the right candidate for such conditions, but I do think a populist progressive candidate could do it.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Likely R. I think Biden could do very well and has a shot at winning the state, but Trump is obviously favoured to win, and it's his state to lose.

[Frenchrepublican]

Why is this up for debate? Montana is not a competitive state. Sure, MT has one Democratic Senator in Jon Tester, but the state has not voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election since 1992. MT is safe R, even if the Democratic ticket was Bullock/Tester and the DNC was held in MT.

I agree that Republicans are favored under normal circumstances, but I also think (based on observed patterns over the last 25-30 years or so) that Democrats may at least come very close in this state (within 5%) if they are winning big nationally, as evidenced by the 1996 and 2008 results. I don’t think Biden would be the right candidate for such conditions, but I do think a populist progressive candidate could do it.

If you adopt this logic NM is Likely D because technically speaking a republican can win the state

[Bidenworth2020]

It is important to remember that 2018, the year where Tester won with relative ease and Gianforte won by around the same margin, had higher turnout than 16.

[pbrower2a]

Lean R -- Trump is a disaster and a poor fit for Montana now by GOP standards.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Biden comes closer than anyone else currently running, but it's a Dem loss under anything short of utter Trump collapse.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R -- Trump is a disaster and a poor fit for Montana now by GOP standards.

LOL

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Very likely R. It could flip in an ultra bad election year, I just don’t see that happening though . Voted likely r for the poll

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is this up for debate? Montana is not a competitive state. Sure, MT has one Democratic Senator in Jon Tester, but the state has not voted for a Democrat in a Presidential election since 1992. MT is safe R, even if the Democratic ticket was Bullock/Tester and the DNC was held in MT.

I agree that Republicans are favored under normal circumstances, but I also think (based on observed patterns over the last 25-30 years or so) that Democrats may at least come very close in this state (within 5%) if they are winning big nationally, as evidenced by the 1996 and 2008 results. I don’t think Biden would be the right candidate for such conditions, but I do think a populist progressive candidate could do it.

If you adopt this logic NM is Likely D because technically speaking a republican can win the state

Nah, demographics and stuff make it impossible for Republicans to win there, but Democrats can win +15/+20 R states in some circumstances because.... because... um... populism... and 2018.

[SN2903]

Trump 60
Biden 38

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump by about 15 points.  Montana is one of those states that swing heavier than the national trend--(1992 and 2008 for the Democrats; 2000 and 2016 for the Republicans).   Montana is the most Democratic state of the cluster that include the Dakotas, Idaho, and Wyoming--but that's not saying much.