How does Milwaukee County's population loss bold for WI Dems in the future?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Milwaukee County saw an uptick in population from 2010-2014 and has been losing population since then, driven primarily by the City of Milwaukee. According to the 2018 Census estimates, Milwaukee County lost 2.6k residents between 2017 to 2018. Milwaukee County even lost more population than Wayne County (home of Detroit) last year, which is terrible:

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/census-dane-county-leads-state-in-population-growth-more-than/article_3ae7268e-8f02-52e3-a599-8787064dcf60.html

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/04/18/metro-detroit-grand-rapids-michigan-population-growth/3495025002/

Dane County, as usual, led the state in population growth, adding 5.5k residents last year, and 20 percent of the county's population growth has come froim domestic migration. Of course immigration and births exceeding deaths are big factors too. Even with the growth of Dane, Milwaukee's population loss means its proportion of the electorate is shrinking, which is concerning due to the R-trending rural areas. If WOW continues to trend D and the Fox Valley region doesn't get any more R, then I'll be less worried. What do you guys think?

[cvparty]

it’s just icing on the cake for the GOP. the vast majority of wisconsin trending R is due to swings in the rural vote rather than population share changes (which are very gradual)

[TJ in Oregon]

Marginal help for the GOP. Still, all of this is, along with the growth in Dane, are minor compared with the rural shift in 2016. Of course every vote counts and Wisconsin is probably headed for a lot of close elections in the near future.

[Annatar]

In Wisconsin as in most of the country growth is so slow now that shifts in voting patterns are more important then changes in relative population distribution, there are still a few exceptions to this like Florida and Texas where growth is still rapid. To give an example relating to Wisconsin, if Dane county adds 5,500 people every year which was its growth in 2017-2018, it will add 22,000 people every 4 years, at 2016 turnout levels and a 50% margin of victory for the dems, that will be a net gain of 6,000 every 4 years. It would take until 2032 for population growth in Dane to overcome the margin of defeat for Clinton in 2016. On the other hand, if Wisconsin 7 were to shift 10% more republican over the next 16 years, that would be a net gain of 37,000 for the GOP.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'd assume they would try to make inroads in the WOW counties, possibly try to expand the margins in Kenosha and Racine southward?

[LoneStarDem]

I'm assuming this means disastrous results for the WI Dems in statewide elections down the road.

Another factor might be gentrification.

[Adam Griffin]

Depends on what is driving these shifts. Are most people just moving to other parts (i.e. suburbs) within the state? Are they dying off? Are they leaving the state?

Just because a big blue county starts losing population doesn't mean that the state itself is losing a comparable number of blue voters. Obviously this can have an impact on local and state legislative affairs, but in statewide contests, the outcome is less certain.

[ElectionsGuy]

Depends on what is driving these shifts. Are most people just moving to other parts (i.e. suburbs) within the state? Are they dying off? Are they leaving the state?

Just because a big blue county starts losing population doesn't mean that the state itself is losing a comparable number of blue voters. Obviously this can have an impact on local and state legislative affairs, but in statewide contests, the outcome is less certain.

Right. A lot of these people could be moving to WOW or Racine/Kenosha (but these places are barely gaining population so maybe not) or they could moving out of state.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Depends on what is driving these shifts. Are most people just moving to other parts (i.e. suburbs) within the state? Are they dying off? Are they leaving the state?

Just because a big blue county starts losing population doesn't mean that the state itself is losing a comparable number of blue voters. Obviously this can have an impact on local and state legislative affairs, but in statewide contests, the outcome is less certain.

Makes sense!