UNH (NH): Sanders 28, Biden 24, Harris 10, Warren 7, Beto 5. Trump leads Rs

[ON Progressive]

D primary:
Sanders 28
Biden 24
Harris 10
Warren 7
O'Rourke 5
Klobuchar 4
Booker 3
Buttigieg/Gabbard/Gillibrand/Brown 1
Delaney/Hickenlooper 0
Other 3
Undecided 14

GOP primary:
Trump (inc) 68
Kasich 17
Weld 3
Undecided 12

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1551&context=survey_center_polls

[Gass3268]

Big increase for Harris, decent increase for Biden, decent decrease for Sanders, huge decrease for Warren.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not looking good at all for Warren.

Harris is doing very well in the Granite state for a west coast liberal.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1101221916105498624

[UWS]

I guess that a Biden victory in the New Hampshire primary might require Warren getting over 15 % of the vote because that would divide Sanders’ progressive and socialist New England base there.

[Matty]

I know it’s early, but warren’s poll numbers are apocalyptic at the moment

[RI]

I know it’s early, but warren’s poll numbers are apocalyptic at the moment

Yep, she needs a Sanders collapse or some absolutely stellar debate performances.

[Xing]

Warren has a very tough path with Sanders in the race, and I don't think Biden not running would really benefit her that much. Also, lol at the idea that there's significant opposition to Trump in the RepublicanTrumpublican Party.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Biden seems like a very able candidate, posting consistent leads nationally and keeping it close near Bernie's home turf.  I have a hard time seeing him not get the nomination if he runs.

[Gass3268]

Biden seems like a very able candidate, posting consistent leads nationally and keeping it close near Bernie's home turf.  I have a hard time seeing him not get the nomination if he runs.

Stuff like this (not this one specific occurrence, but he's had multiple statements like this that add up):

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1101240631010213893

[RI]

Ah civility. How terrible.

[exopolitician]

Disappointing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders or Warren were always advantaged in NH, due to their proximity to NH, but it won't be over, these primaries go well past IA and NH.

[Jags]

Ah civility. How terrible.

Civility is terrible

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs:
Sanders wins 51% of those under age 35, but only has 7% support among those over 65.  Biden is the reverse.  He’s at 12% among those under 35 and 38% among those over 65.

Sanders wins men by 12 points, and Biden wins women by 1 point.  Sanders wins the 1st CD, while Biden wins the 2nd CD.  Biden and Sanders are both stronger among those with high school education or less than they are among those with higher education levels.  Harris and Warren are both stronger with college grads than non-college grads.  Harris is much stronger with women than men.  In fact, here’s men vs. women:

men:
Sanders 34%
Biden 22%
Klobuchar 6%
Warren 6%
O’Rourke 4%
Harris 3%

women:
Biden 22%
Sanders 21%
Harris 14%
Warren 7%
O’Rourke 5%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%

They also asked this question….

Is there any candidate you would *not* vote for under any circumstances?

Warren 13%
Sanders 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Gillibrand 4%
Booker 3%
Harris 3%
Biden 3%
O’Rourke 2%
Gabbard 2%
Castro 1%
Buttigieg 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Hickenlooper 0%
Delaney 0%

[Shadows]

Crosstabs:
Sanders wins 51% of those under age 35, but only has 7% support among those over 65.  Biden is the reverse.  He’s at 12% among those under 35 and 38% among those over 65.

Sanders wins men by 12 points, and Biden wins women by 1 point.  Sanders wins the 1st CD, while Biden wins the 2nd CD.  Biden and Sanders are both stronger among those with high school education or less than they are among those with higher education levels.  Harris and Warren are both stronger with college grads than non-college grads.  Harris is much stronger with women than men.  In fact, here’s men vs. women:

men:
Sanders 34%
Biden 22%
Klobuchar 6%
Warren 6%
O’Rourke 4%
Harris 3%

women:
Biden 22%
Sanders 21%
Harris 14%
Warren 7%
O’Rourke 5%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%

They also asked this question….

Is there any candidate you would *not* vote for under any circumstances?

Warren 13%
Sanders 8%
Bloomberg 6%
Gillibrand 4%
Booker 3%
Harris 3%
Biden 3%
O’Rourke 2%
Gabbard 2%
Castro 1%
Buttigieg 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Hickenlooper 0%
Delaney 0%

The numbers among young voters are crazy high. Huge polarization.

It will be interesting to see how older voters react if Sanders seems like a frontrunner.

This is very VERY bad for Warren.

[Gustaf]

So there are twice as many #NeverWarren voters as there are actual Warren voters? Yeah, this is a bad poll for her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Without BIDEN

SANDERS 24
Harris 14
Warren 10
Booker 8

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Without BIDEN

SANDERS 24
Harris 14
Warren 10
Booker 8

Bernie doesn't lose people without Biden.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I worked on this poll! Exciting to see the results come in.
I talked to more Republicans than Democrats, but even still it's fairly representative of the responses I got. So much Bernie!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a must win state for Warren & Bernie, I dont know how Warren continues after NH.  The bigger states favor Kamala

[Adam Griffin]

If/when Biden passes on a run, Sanders will begin to run away with NH. This is exactly the type of place where I imagine the second-preference distribution of Biden's voters is even more favorable for Sanders than it is nationally.