This is what I think
Mark Warner/Joe Biden 369
John McCain/Sarah Palin 169
Indiana stays in the McCain column due to fact I dont think he does as well in Marion as Obama did or in the counties that are part of Chicago Metro.
He wins WV due to the fact he was pretty popular in SW VA in the 2000s and it is a state that McCain would lead in till the crash but collapse afterwords. He unlike doesnt win AR like Hillary due to fact he doesnt have the last name of Clinton (The Clintons were very popular in AR in 2008) . Kentucky was too far gone by then for the Dems to win it, if Clinton barely won it in 1996 when the Dems won even bigger nationally than 08 no dem would win it after that.
He wins MO as he does better in the rural areas and even a slight over performance would flip this state.
