What if: Dem President elected but GOP holds Senate majority?

[The Mikado]

Dem candidate of your choice wins White House, and Dems pick up CO, ME, and AZ-Special in the Senate, but lose AL, for a 51-49 GOP Senate. What happens from here?

[The Mikado]

Anyone going to weigh in on this? You can pick any Democrat, even Sanders.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

RIP getting any major legislation done.

They will have to do what Obama did from 2011-2019: largely rely on expanding executive power as much as possible and backdooring policy in through administrative changes in federal department policies.

[T'Chenka]

I'm optimistic that President Sanders can address the nation and in doing so compel voters to force their representatives to stop blocking everything he does. Unlike Obama, Bernie isn't beholden to the establishment and can tell the country what's actually going on and fully ruthlessly call out the Republicans.

Like I said... optimistic. Bernie is 100% genuine though IMO.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

You mean the likeliest outcome?

Pete Buttigieg would be one of the best possible voices for bipartisanship out of the Democratic field. His experience as a small-town mayor in the Midwest would give him the charm and outsider's perspective, but his service in the military and his time at Oxford/Harvard would give him the applicable knowledge to craft real solutions. I'm confident he could court GOP support on some issues like border security, renewable energy, and perhaps even income inequality.

[The Mikado]

perhaps even income inequality.

I actually think that a minimum wage increase could happen with a Dem House/President and narrowly GOP Senate, albeit not much of one (settling for, say, $9 an hour).

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

perhaps even income inequality.

I actually think that a minimum wage increase could happen with a Dem House/President and narrowly GOP Senate, albeit not much of one (settling for, say, $9 an hour).

I think the GOP could pivot to accept a $10 minimum wage to say that the American workers deserve it/help build their case in the Midwest if they do poorly in Ohio/Michigan/Minnesota/Wisconsin.

[TML]

Let me tell you what will likely backfire on the GOP: If the GOP decides to preemptively obstruct everything the new President does (e.g. refuse to hold hearings on any of his/her nominees), this will give the Democrats plenty of political ammunition to use in the 2022 midterm elections, thereby increasing the likelihood of Republicans losing control of the Senate in that year.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's also the possibility that Democrats pick up the Presidency while losing the House.

[SInNYC]

Do what Reagan did - use the bully pulpit. Get on TV and tell people to contact their senator/rep to support his proposals. Reagan got pretty much everything he wanted his first few years (though he later blamed Congress for not giving him what he wanted), despite having a Democratic house. It of course helped that many of the Ds were Dixiecrats but I think voter support for his policies scared D reps into voting for the then-radical policies.

Of course this only works if Ds have some rural support, since the senate is structurally rural and there are only so many reps from cities and inner ring suburbs.

[IceSpear]

You mean the likeliest outcome?

Pete Buttigieg would be one of the best possible voices for bipartisanship out of the Democratic field. His experience as a small-town mayor in the Midwest would give him the charm and outsider's perspective, but his service in the military and his time at Oxford/Harvard would give him the applicable knowledge to craft real solutions. I'm confident he could court GOP support on some issues like border security, renewable energy, and perhaps even income inequality.

Is that you, Pete? Welcome to Atlas!

[politicallefty]

There's also the possibility that Democrats pick up the Presidency while losing the House.

The odds of that happening I think are pretty infinitesimal, maybe only marginally better than the odds of winning the Senate and not the House last year. A non-zero chance, yes, but not realistic. If I had to rank them right now, I'd say the House is Lean/Likely D (closer to the latter), the Senate is Lean R, and the Presidency is a toss-up. A lot of variables yet, but the House is by far the safest of the three.

As to the question, a lot would depend on who the President actual would be. I'm not optimistic though. I would expect judicial confirmations to be barely a trickle, almost certainly full obstruction if a SCOTUS seat opened up.

One interesting historical note I've noticed is that it's extremely rare for the President's party to control the House and not the Senate. Since the formation of the current two-party system in the 1850s, it's only happened twice: during Grover Cleveland's entire first term and then again from mid-2001-2003 when Jim Jeffords left the Republican Party. And actually before that, the only time it happened was during the first two years of Andrew Jackson's second term.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do what Reagan did - use the bully pulpit. Get on TV and tell people to contact their senator/rep to support his proposals. Reagan got pretty much everything he wanted his first few years (though he later blamed Congress for not giving him what he wanted), despite having a Democratic house. It of course helped that many of the Ds were Dixiecrats but I think voter support for his policies scared D reps into voting for the then-radical policies.

Of course this only works if Ds have some rural support, since the senate is structurally rural and there are only so many reps from cities and inner ring suburbs.

While the Democrats numerically controlled the house, in reality, it was defacto controlled by the GOP due to the Conservative Coalition

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's also the possibility that Democrats pick up the Presidency while losing the House.

The odds of that happening I think are pretty infinitesimal, maybe only marginally better than the odds of winning the Senate and not the House last year. A non-zero chance, yes, but not realistic. If I had to rank them right now, I'd say the House is Lean/Likely D (closer to the latter), the Senate is Lean R, and the Presidency is a toss-up. A lot of variables yet, but the House is by far the safest of the three.

As to the question, a lot would depend on who the President actual would be. I'm not optimistic though. I would expect judicial confirmations to be barely a trickle, almost certainly full obstruction if a SCOTUS seat opened up.

One interesting historical note I've noticed is that it's extremely rare for the President's party to control the House and not the Senate. Since the formation of the current two-party system in the 1850s, it's only happened twice: during Grover Cleveland's entire first term and then again from mid-2001-2003 when Jim Jeffords left the Republican Party. And actually before that, the only time it happened was during the first two years of Andrew Jackson's second term.

The House is still gerrymandered in favor of Democrats more than the electoral college is, so a narrow win for the Democrats in the Presidency could cause the House to be lost. In 2016, the Presidential election was closer than the House.

And it did happen once before, in 1848. The Democrats picked up the House while the Whigs picked up the Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

You can count on Republicans doing everything possible to ensure that that Democrat be a one-term President, as it tried with Clinton and Obama.  Count on poison pills in legislation, resistance to any judicial nominees, and of course the loud rhetoric from GOP front groups that disparage  anything that fails to believe in absolute plutocracy. Gridlock will be the reality until Republicans get clobbered in the 2022 midterm election or that the Republicans get the trifecta of the House, Senate, and Presidency in 2024 with someone more competent than Trump, but perhaps even more reactionary. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whatever the Dems cant pass will be passed after 2022, when Dems will hold the Senate

[President Johnson]

Depends on who is the Republican leader. If it's still McTurtle, kiss the courts and any reasonable legislation goodbye. He will obstruct as much as possible. Getting a cabinet through might not be the problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if he completely blocks Supreme Court justices (and some lower court judges) for the entire four years.

As of now, I'd say the senate is a toss-up, while the presidency and house are lean Democratic.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

You mean the likeliest outcome?

Pete Buttigieg would be one of the best possible voices for bipartisanship out of the Democratic field. His experience as a small-town mayor in the Midwest would give him the charm and outsider's perspective, but his service in the military and his time at Oxford/Harvard would give him the applicable knowledge to craft real solutions. I'm confident he could court GOP support on some issues like border security, renewable energy, and perhaps even income inequality.

Is that you, Pete? Welcome to Atlas!

Gosh, I wish.

[Orser67]

I honestly see this is a catastrophic possibility. We probably see 4-8 years of legislative gridlock, accompanied by the normal midterm losses that come with holding the presidency. I think the Senate would be next to impossible to pick up in 2022, 2024, or 2026 due to the dynamics of midterms and the terribleness of the 2024 map.

I wouldn't be surprised if some legislation gets passed (I agree that a minimum wage increase is plausible), but anything major like a public option is almost certainly off the table. Something more ambitious like single payer healthcare or the Green New Deal would be completely DOA. Keep in mind that it's not just a matter of getting 50 votes (plus the vice president); the Senate Majority Leader controls the Senate agenda and can prevent things from coming to a vote.

The GOP would be quite unlikely to block the confirmation of all judges, but they'd probably block a lot of them. I don't think that it's a guarantee that e.g. they'd allow the Democratic president to appoint a successor to RBG.

[dw93]

If McTurtle is still Senate Majority leader (he's up in 2020 and he could retire) come Jan 2021, the first two years are gonna be hell for a newly elected Democrat. I don't think any other Republican Senate leader is as ruthless as McTurtle is and thus won't be able to pull obstruction off as well. So as others have said, you either get a Democratic tricifica in 2023 or a Republican one in 2025.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only way this happens, if Brown is selected as Veep and Jones loses. Dems have enough states to win majority

But, I rather trade HARRIS-BROWN and Speaker Pelosi for the Senate Dems will win back in 2022 anyways

[QAnonKelly]

Honestly if Trump were a normal president, the smart thing to do next year would be just to run a sacrificial lamb to keep the house and make some ground up in the senate but lose the presidency. That 22 cycle would be vicious with probably five open senate seats and new maps in the house. It’d mean the D in 25 would have big majorities in the house and hold the senate too. You’d also hedge your loses when this past senate cycle comes back around because Manchin would retire but Cruz would lose. Leaving Brown’s seat the only other vulnerable one

[Florida Man for Crime]

There are two possibilities:

1) No governance occurs. US is without a functional government.

2) The Dem President declares a national emergency and implements their policies. GOP Senate passes a resolution opposing this, but the Dem President vetoes it and the GOP Senate fails to override.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is very likely to happen and would yield little success for that Democratic President. It would only get worse too since the Democrats would be likely to get obliterated in the next midterm elections, as is always the case in our stupid country. However, I would still take a Democratic President with a Republican Congress over what we have now.

[Mr. Smith]

I'd be more curious as to the result of Trump re-elected, while the Dems capture the majority via ME/CO/AZ Sp. and one of MT/IA.