Thoughts on these bold predictions for 2020

[redeagleofficial]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

[Frenchrepublican]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins it by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

Predictions 1/2/3/5/10/12/13/14/15 are possible but they won't happen simultaneously.
Predictions 6//8/9/11 are just impossible

[😥]

1. False
2. False
3. False
4. False
5. False
6. False
7. False
8. Maybe true
9. False. Probably Democrat/Kelly will win Arizona. The ways when Republican/Kelly or Democrat/McSally win this state is very unlikely
10. False
11. False
12. False
13. False
14. True
15. Maybe true

[Politician]

None of them are favored to happen.

[redeagleofficial]

None of them are favored to happen.

That's why they're called "bold" predictions

[Old Man Willow]

6 and 11 are so painfully stupid it almost hurt to read them.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

1. I don't think Ohio will vote that much to the right of Iowa.
2. This is plausible, but I think New Mexico votes a bit to the left of Virginia.
3. Unlikely, I don't think there will be a lot of Dem Pres/James voters
4. I don't see this, but it's very hard to say this far out.
5. I don't think both will happen at the same time.
6. Very unlikely, the Democrat will do even better in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas than Hillary did, and turnout should be up across the board.
7. Yeah, this is plausible... if not the most likely of outcomes.
8. Very unlikely. even if the Democratic candidate does worse than Beto they should still get more votes than him due to higher turnout.
9. I think Trump narrowly loses Maricopa even if he narrowly wins statewide.
10. Also quite unlikely. I think black and Hispanic turnout will be up AND they'll swing left compared to 2016.
11. Nope. absolutely no way this happens.
12. Probably, since Hillary already won this group in 2016.
13. No, Florida will be very close, as always.
14. Eh... I'd say the odds are 50/50 here. if the PV is D+4 then Trump is definitely losing the electoral college too.
15. Both should be a bit closer than that, particularly Texas.

[redeagleofficial]

6 and 11 are so painfully stupid it almost hurt to read them.

I mean, 2016 had higher PA turnout than 2012.  It would not be implausible to see a slight dip in turnout.

Oregon was D+11 in 2016 and Colorado was D+5 in 2016.  If Colorado goes D by 8.5 and Oregon goes D by 8.3, that would not be that much of a development.  Especially after the Trump campaign says they are going after Oregon in 2020.

[redeagleofficial]

Justification

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.


Trump can win Ohio by 10 if he improves by just 2 percent statewide.  It is a very white, blue collar, rural state and the blue collar suburbs trended R in 2016.  It would not be implausible to see Ohio to trend in Trump's column.  On the contrary, the farmers may be slightly hurt by the tariffs and turnout could be lower.  Still, I think Trump wins by 7 as a supermajority of the farmers still support him per the Farm Journal (74% now vs. 79% 2016)

2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin

This is also very possible as VA is trending D due to the Fairfax county area.  NM will probably be decided by a similar margin as Johnson voters will split relatively even, maybe a 60-40 Dem tilt but the margin in both could be something like 53-45.

3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race

James is like a Marco Rubio type candidate that has appeal across the aisle running against an opponent with low name recognition.  James can get pure independents to vote for him that love to split tickets.  Trump will come close and make a push for MI but I think dems will do better in places like Oakland county and win the state 49.4-47.7.  James will do much better in Oakland County and Kent County, allowing him to win the state similar to how Ron Johnson outperformed Trump by a few points in WI.

4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina

He has fallen 16 points in the polls since his peak in May.  He can't keep his foot out of his mouth and lacks generation of excitement, he will be comparable to Jeb! 2016.

5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.

The Ben Shapiroesque conservatives in Waukesha that stayed home/voted 3rd party will come aboard to Trump this time around.  No way Trump won't break 60 pct there this time with a party that will be united behind him.  Also, rural areas can trend red more as Trump won a lot of them by just 10-15 points.


6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected

I mean, 2016 had higher PA turnout than 2012.  It would not be implausible to see a slight dip in turnout.

7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail

It would be difficult to see a democratic gain in the house, as well as a republican takeover.  Lots of vulnerable candidates if you consider a D+4 swing nationally, which I expect at minimum.

8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018

Beto outperformed Hillary by 200K votes in terms of raw total.  I don't think it would be implausible to see Trump win Texas 4.75M-4.02 M-300K.

9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3

Trump did much worse than Romney while Clinton did not do much better percentagewise than Obama.  I expect Trump's raw vote totals to be up and he wins the county something like 755K-740K.  Mormons who stayed home last time will come out for him for SCOTUS purposes.  Ducey won it by 200K and McSally only lost it by 50K; Trumps approval per the exit poll was net +2 statewide so if He outperformed McSally by 4 statewide he should probably have a shot to retake Maricopa.  AZ has registered more R voters since the 2018 elections than D, so there is hope for him there as well.

10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee

Republicans actually outperformed Trump with these types of voters in 2018 despite losing by nearly 9 nationwide.  Republicans even improved in races slightly such as Georgia and even more Florida, where black gubernatorial dems were running.  Polls consistently show Trump improving with these voters as well.

11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado

Oregon was D+11 in 2016 and Colorado was D+5 in 2016.  If Colorado goes D by 8.5 and Oregon goes D by 8.3, that would not be that much of a development.  Especially after the Trump campaign says they are going after Oregon in 2020.

12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters

Exit polls last time showed Republicans win them by something around 4 while they went blue in 2018 by a decent amount.  I expect the middle to be where they vote in 2020, and Dems finally win them nationwide.

13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.

Bush won it by 5 in 04 after winning it by just 500 votes in 00, and it has an incumbency fetish.  I think Trump wins by 3 when its all said and one.

14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent

I think dems are maxed out in California percentage wise, but more raw votes in these places could push it over the 4 percent mark, esp. as Texas gets closer for the time being.

15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

This seems relatively plausible given the fact that both states inch closer to purple status (though I expect Texas to be solid red in 2024)

[Gracile]

1. Somewhat possible if it's a modestly Republican year.
2. Possible
3. I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where Trump loses MI, and James simultaneously wins the Senate race. James is a standard conservative Republican that I doubt would appeal to many presidential Dem voters.
4. Somewhat possible, but it's a bit far out to tell. I think there is a good chance Biden will stay until Super Tuesday despite losing the early states.
5. I don't think these will happen in conjunction with each other.
6. Why PA in particular? All signs point to a very high turnout year, and PA is home to many demographics that would turn out to vote Trump out of office.
7. I think this is possible as well if it's a modestly Republican year.
8. That's very hard to imagine because not even Beto was able to max out the Democratic vote in certain parts of Texas (he got less raw votes than Clinton in some heavily Hispanic, Democratic counties, and those voters would show up in a presidential year).
9. I also think Kelly could outperform the Dem nominee here, and I could see a scenario where Trump and Kelly simultaneously win Maricopa (though it will be close).
10. Not going to happen.
11. Not going to happen, and campaigning in Oregon would be a huge waste of money. If he wants to play offense, why not go to more demographically favorable R-trending states like ME/MN/NH?
12. This is very inconsistent with some of your earlier predictions (losing Maricopa/losing ground in OR/getting less raw votes in TX).
13. A 3 point win is within the realm of possibility in a moderately good R year, yes.
14. This is where you lost me. Your predictions are in line with a slightly better Republican year. I don't see how Trump can simultaneously gain in large states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania yet the Democrats gain 2% (~3 million votes) in the popular vote. And no, California alone would not be able to do that.
15. These margins are somewhat possible, yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John James wont win the Senate rate, if Dems win MI at presidential race.

[Mr. Illini]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing. No, Iowa will not be called within 30min
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin Possibly
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race It is possible if James can appeal slightly better in Metro Detroit while not losing MAGA voters
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina Certainly possible
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board. It is possible
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected I don't foresee this given the amount of attention that will be paid to PA
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail Their gains will not be this big
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018 Probably not given it is a Presidential year
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3 This is possible
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee It could happen, but mostly sounds like a pipedream
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado Lol no
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters It won't be narrow
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM. This is possible
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent And Dems lose dozens of House seats? And black and Latino voters shift toward the GOP? Unlikely combination
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6 Possible

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Big Yikes

[brucejoel99]

Big Yikes

[History505]

John James wont win the Senate rate, if Dems win MI at presidential race.

Agree.

[TML]

For #3, ask Senator Alan Keyes.

[redeagleofficial]

For #3, ask Senator Alan Keyes.

In '04 Obama outperformed Kerry by 16, mainly in the rural white part of the state.

[SN2903]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

1. No I think Trump wins Iowa by more than he wins Ohio. I think he wins Iowa by around 9% and Ohio by 6%
2. Don't agree. I think Virginia will be even closer than 2016 more like 3.5-4% Dem win. New Mexico dems will take it by 8-9%
3.  Possible, but I tend to think either both Trump and James win Michigan or they both lose. However I could see the dem nominee winning Michigan by 1-2% and James eeking out to a win due to good performance in Oakland County and Kent.
4.  Don't agree. I think Biden stays in till at least June. I think the nomination will be between him and Harris.
5. Agree. I think Wisconsin will be more red than 2016. It is not a good state for dems.
6. Disagree. I think turnout will be sky high in PA esp Philly. I think Penn will be quite close like 2016 but I do think Trump narrowly wins it by around 1-1.5% due to massive turnout in the rural areas of the state.
7. Agree. I think the house is more in play than people think, but they will come up just short.
8.  Agree
9.  I think Trump will win Arizona by closer to 5 than 3. The economy will help him out west.
10. Agree. I think Trump will slightly improve his #s with minorities from 2016.
11. Disagree. I do not think Trump visits Oregon once.
12. Disagree. I think Trump narrowly wins college educated whites.
13. Disagree. I think Florida will be called around 10:30 slightly before 2016.
14. Disagree. I think the popular vote will be between +.5% Trump - +1.5% Democratic with Trump winning the Electoral College and being reelected.
15. Disagree. I think Trump will win Texas by 8-10% and Georgia by 5-6%.

[SuperCow]

None of them would be a big surprise except 14, since if 14 happens half of the other predictions will fail automatically.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

1. Trump will win Ohio by double digits but Iowa will be slightly closer (but not by much).  Both are called within 30 minutes of poll closing.
2. Virginia and New Mexico will be decided by the same margin
3. Trump loses Michigan narrowly but John James wins the senate race
4. Biden will drop out after South Carolina
5. Wisconsin's rural counties and WOW counties trend red as more establishment Republicans come on board.
6. Pennsylvania turnout % decreases from 2016 and Trump wins it by a wider margin than expected
7. Republicans come a few seats away from retaking the house but ultimately fail
8. The democrat will get less votes in Texas then Beto did in 2018
9. Maricopa County goes for Trump and Mark Kelly and Trump wins Arizona by 3
10. Trump improves with black and hispanic voters over 2016 even if Kamala is the nominee
11. Trump aggressively campaigns in Oregon and it votes to the right of Colorado
12. Democrats win, albeit narrowly, with white college educated voters
13. Florida gets called for Trump before 10 PM.
14. Dems win the popular vote by over 4 percent
15. Georgia goes red by 3.5 and Texas goes red by 6

1) No.  Trump can win OH by 8-10 but Iowa will be closer, and will get called much later in the night.
2) Possible but unlikely. NM will be D+10-13, VA will be D+5-7
3) Possibly.  But James has a steep hill (but easier than 18')
4) very unlikely.
5) Possible, there is still some room for growth in rural areas.
6) Eh, will still be razor thin either way.
7) Possible.
Possible
9) possible. I think both winning margins would be narrower than 3.
10) I think he'll improve slightly.
11) No chance in hell Oregon will vote right of Colorado.  CO's margin will be half that of OR.
12) Possible
13) If it's Bernie, Warren or Pete.
14) Unlikely unless a recession hits.
15) Actually quite probable.  GA will be 2.5-4 and TX will be 5-8 (both depend largely on the nominee)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump won OH by 7 points on the back of Portman blowing out Strickland. Ohio and IA arent IN, where GOP will win them by double digits from now on, Mike DeWine and Reynolds won them by 3-4 points and certainly  Kamala, Biden, or Bernie, with the right running mate can win them as well as FL and AZ

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dick Morris, is that you?

[538Electoral]

1. Possible though I still think IA will vote more Republican. I wouldn't be surprised if both were called at poll closing time.
2. Skeptical
3. Mildly possible. I think it's more likely Trump wins while James loses though.
4. No. Biden is still favored to win the nomination.
5. Agree
6. I agree PA could likely go to Trump by a 2-3% margin but I think turnout will be slightly higher.
7. Agree. I think it will be 225 D, 210 R something.
8. Depends on turnout.
9. Not sure about that.
10. Possible
11. Skeptical
12. Possible
13. Possible
14. Disagree
15. I think margins will be higher than that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP dont have the House anymore, that helped the presidential nominee in swing surburban districts. It will be hard to replicate the success Trump made in 2016