What were the results in 2016? At first glance, I would disagree with Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Going by CNN, AZ was 51-44 Trump, PA 50-47 Trump and VA 54-41 Trump. I'm using Fox's 2018 exits as a baseline and assuming Biden performs strongly in the suburbs. I admit VA is a stretch but I expect him to win it by a Northam-Gillespie margin and Northam received 48% of white women according to CNN, and Kaine 52% according to both CNN and Fox. So I'm thinking it comes to around 50-48 win for him with said demographic.
