If Anthony Kennedy hadn't retired, I think there's a good chance McCaskill would still be a Senator. Is that something that we can categorize as baked in no matter what?
I’m doubtful that she would have survived even without the Kavanaugh circus, it’s just that Hawley is a fantastic candidate and would have defeated her no matter what, quality matters.
Hawley was not "fantastic", in the sense that he wasn't that exciting of a speaker or that inspirational. He was young, he stopped saying stupid sh**t, and let Trump carry him to a win.