Colorado a Blue State?

[TheresNoMoney]

On Tuesday, Colorado voters approved Referendum C, which would suspend the TABOR program, which greatly limited spending and growth. The additional $3.7 billion as a result will be used on education, infrastructure, and other essential services. National Republicans poured money into the state to defeat this measure, but came up short.

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_3176880

Here's a quote from the Republican House Minority Leader:

"I think we now have become a blue state, frankly," Stengel told Republicans from other states during a conference call. "Now, with the governor standing shoulder to shoulder with his Democratic friends, I think we probably are going to have a tough time regaining the House or the Senate. The performance (Tuesday) shows clearly that we have moved towards the left."

Democrats won back the State Senate and House in 2004, and picked up a U.S. Senate seat with Ken Salazar.  They have a great chance to win the governorship in 2006.

Will Colorado go blue in 2008? I think the Democrats need to make Colorado one of their top priorities. It's clearly a state they can win in the future.

[Moooooo]

Not yet, but they're gradually leaning towards the good guys.

[Moooooo]

2008, I doubt it.  I think the GOP would have to nominate someone pretty horrible for Colorado to swing.  Its possible, just not probable.

[© tweed]

2008, I doubt it.  I think the GOP would have to nominate someone pretty horrible for the Colorado to swing.  Its a possible, just not probable.

Hell, I don't see why it can't swing.  It was about +11% over the national average for Dole in 1996, +9% over the national average for Bush in 2000, and in 2004 +2% over the national average.  Provided it's a decent Dem candidate (Bayh, Biden, even Warner) it's in play.

[Jake]

Blue state-red state is extremely simplistic for reasons most of us know, but always forget. Colorado has just become a bit more friendly to left of center causes and candidates lately.

[TheresNoMoney]

Kerry got 47% in 2004, and I don't consider him a very good candidate.

Colorado is not a socially conservative state (I went to graduate school there) and its ranked in the top ten states according to education, and with the right candidate I definitely think it can flip. A strong state party will help in the process.

[TheresNoMoney]

Rumor also has it that they may add Colorado very early in the 2008 primary/caucus schedule, as well as host the convention in Denver in 2008.

[memphis]

The Southwest is crucial for presidential elections. It's full of growing swing states. New American citizens in the region, primarily Hispanics, may not yet have strong party allegiances, so it is critical that the Dems focus there energies here and quit worrying about the solidly Republican South.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Colorado could very well be in play come 2008.

[Moooooo]

How important is immigration in CO?  Is it a top tier issue like it is in TX and AZ?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I think with a good Democratic canidate, the entire Southwestern 4 (NV,AZ,CO,NM) could go Democrat in 2008.  I think the Democrats should go after these four states a lot harder than they did 2004.  Maybe forget about Ohio (if they didn't vote for us in 2004, I doubt they will anytime soon) and take all those resources and put it into the West where they can pick up 29 EVs.  

[The Duke]

A blue state?  Give me a break.  Swing state maybe, trending blue maybe, but when a party hasn't won the state since '92, its not a blue state.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think with a good Democratic canidate, the entire Southwestern 4 (NV,AZ,CO,NM) could go Democrat in 2008.

I highly doubt a Democrat could win Arizona in 2008, but they can definitely win the other three states.

And I strongly disagree with your statement about forgetting Ohio. I might forget about Florida, but would still spend a lot of resources in Ohio. A strong showing in 2006 in Ohio will mean good things in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

And I strongly disagree with your statement about forgetting Ohio. I might forget about Florida, but would still spend a lot of resources in Ohio. A strong showing in 2006 in Ohio will mean good things in 2008.

2004 was an almost worst case scenario for the GOP in Ohio. The economic condition wasn't all that great and I believe the number of dead or wounded from the Iraq war was higher than any other state. The President still won.

Currently, the scandal plauged administration of Governor Taft sits at less than 20% approval rating yet 2006 is still seen as competitive - both parties have a shot at the office. If you can't pick up the Governor's office next year then I highly doubt the state will find a serious reason to flip in '08.

[Alcon]

A blue state?  Give me a break.  Swing state maybe, trending blue maybe, but when a party hasn't won the state since '92, its not a blue state.

So Massachusetts must really not be a red state! 

[Sam Spade]

Republicans are fiscal conservatives?  This is news to me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not all this Redstatebluestate CRAP again

[opebo]

2004 was an almost worst case scenario for the GOP in Ohio. The economic condition wasn't all that great and I believe the number of dead or wounded from the Iraq war was higher than any other state. The President still won.

Currently, the scandal plauged administration of Governor Taft sits at less than 20% approval rating yet 2006 is still seen as competitive - both parties have a shot at the office. If you can't pick up the Governor's office next year then I highly doubt the state will find a serious reason to flip in '08.

I agree that Ohio seems masochistically Republican leaning, Keystone Phil, but its economic conditions are on a long term downtrend - 2006 should be worse than 2004, and 2008 should be worse than 2006.  This doesn't mean that it is going to flip, just that it is in dire straights economically.

Oh yes, and about Colorado - moving Democrat at a fair pace.  It is not just about CO moderating, it is of course about the GOP becoming so identified with the Southern Religious, alienating other regions.

[minionofmidas]

A blue state?  Give me a break.  Swing state maybe, trending blue maybe, but when a party hasn't won the state since '92, its not a blue state.

So Massachusetts must really not be a red state! 

Why? It is a state that a party (several ones in fact, Republicans, Greens, Reform) hasn't won since '92 (even longer, btw) - so according to John's definition its not a blue state. [/sillyness]
Colorado swung pretty big in 2004. There's a number of factors involved:
-recently strong state party (so, that is already factored in, sorry Scoonie)
-the big increases in turnout and pro-Dem swings in tourist industry towns all over the West. Hard to say if there's still additional reservoirs of votes there or if the current level can even be sustained
-Lest we forget, Kerry was born in Colorado, though I'm not sure if that had much of an influence
And Colorado has sizable evangelical populations - just not everywhere. And they've long had excellent turnout operations, and strong ties to the state Republican Party - and thence not as much upward room for improvement in 2004 as elsewhere.

[Shira]

On Tuesday, Colorado voters approved Referendum C, which would suspend the TABOR program, which greatly limited spending and growth. The additional $3.7 billion as a result will be used on education, infrastructure, and other essential services. National Republicans poured money into the state to defeat this measure, but came up short.

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_3176880

Here's a quote from the Republican House Minority Leader:

"I think we now have become a blue state, frankly," Stengel told Republicans from other states during a conference call. "Now, with the governor standing shoulder to shoulder with his Democratic friends, I think we probably are going to have a tough time regaining the House or the Senate. The performance (Tuesday) shows clearly that we have moved towards the left."

Democrats won back the State Senate and House in 2004, and picked up a U.S. Senate seat with Ken Salazar.  They have a great chance to win the governorship in 2006.

Will Colorado go blue in 2008? I think the Democrats need to make Colorado one of their top priorities. It's clearly a state they can win in the future.

Colorado and Virginia (and AZ to a lesser extend) are gradually moving in the blue direction.
Simply track the diffs between REPs and DEMs from 1988 to 2004

[Blue Rectangle]

Colorado swung pretty big in 2004. There's a number of factors involved:
-recently strong state party (so, that is already factored in, sorry Scoonie)

Yes, this had a major impact on the 2004 presidential race.  The Democrats had a couple things going for them.  One was the budget problem, which caused the Democrats to win the state house and senate.  C and D are an after effect of this.  Fortunately, opposition to these measures was far greater than I had hoped.  D failed and C passed with a close vote, despite support from Bill Owens, the Colorado Springs mayor and council, and the very conservative Colorado Springs Gazette.  This may indicate that Democrats' revolution is fading.

The other factor was the senate race, which put a very popular, moderate Democrat with a strong history in state office against a political novice (Pete Coors).  Hurting Coors even more, the Christian Right was upset that their candidate failed in the primary.  They were also opposed to Coors over his social policy, such as putting women in bikinis in beer commercials (the horror!)  Despite such a serious handicap, Coors ran a close race.

-the big increases in turnout and pro-Dem swings in tourist industry towns all over the West. Hard to say if there's still additional reservoirs of votes there or if the current level can even be sustained

This is the explanation for why Kerry won more CO counties than Gore.  But does it matter?  I don't think so.

-Lest we forget, Kerry was born in Colorado, though I'm not sure if that had much of an influence
And Colorado has sizable evangelical populations - just not everywhere. And they've long had excellent turnout operations, and strong ties to the state Republican Party - and thence not as much upward room for improvement in 2004 as elsewhere.

I don't recall Gore visiting CO in 2000.  Kerry, on the other hand, made several visits and spent far more money than Gore did.  People forget that a major difference between the Democratic CO campaigns in 2000 and 2004 is "not trying at all" and "trying very hard".  You would expect that to produce some gains.

Another point that is often missed is that Bush's PV share actually increased from 2000 to 2004 by almost a full percent (to almost 52%).  This is not the behavior I would expect from a future "blue state".  It will be very difficult for CO to go Democrat so long as Republicans break the 50% mark.

The biggest difference from 2000 to 2004 in CO was Nader, who broke 5% in 2000, but failed to get 1% in 2004.  The Democrats, wisely, sought to eliminate Nader as a factor in 2004 after being burned in 2000.  In some states, this produced big gains in terms closing the gap, but did not actually win any states.  (Well, maybe NH, but Kerry's proximity probably had more to do with that.)

In conclusion, Democrats are in good shape locally in CO because of serious divisions in the Republican party.  There are signs that the Republicans will get their act together, and I hope Refs C and D will be the wake-up call.  However, these are state issues causing the divisions and should have no effect on the 2008 presidential race.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I actually predict Colorado to go Dem in 2008.  I agree with Opebo that the GOP is really starting to alienate other regions with since they are starting to become the southern conservative party. 

Don't say it can't happen, the rest of the country has gotten sick of the South several times. 

[opebo]

I agree with Opebo that the GOP is really starting to alienate other regions with since they are starting to become the southern conservative party. 

Don't say it can't happen, the rest of the country has gotten sick of the South several times. 

Thanks, TakeBack.  Here's a visual represtentation - the pink states will be alienated by the very dark blue problem area:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You both seem to be living in la-la land

[Sam Spade]

You both seem to be living in la-la land