If I told you in 2008 that Democrats would win Georgia and Arizona while losing Florida and Ohio....

[Jesus save us]

in 2020, what would you  make of it?

[freepcrusher]

I would probably think it would be a candidate specific issue. Otoh, Georgia and Arizona are different states with different histories. My guess is that I would assume that the map would be super scrambled. So you would have New York being only 53/47 dem and Utah only being narrowly republican.

[CookieDamage]

2008 me was 11 and mostly uninterested in politics. But if I were an adult and a nerd, I'd assume there was quite a realignment, although the degree of radicality would depend. A bunch of other states remained the same. Virginia voted dem in 2008 and 2020, as did Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and the solid blue states. If I had known the full map, it wouldn't be that shocking. I'd probably chalk up the AZ and GA wins to Dem success in booming Atlanta and Phoenix metro areas. Although I wouldn't know what to make of a loss in FL. I'd probably assume there was an explosion in white, panhandle turnout. I'd also be perplexed to why NC was a GOP win. But if I knew better, I'd chalk that up to NC not having as many big cities/one big metro like GA and those suburbs remaining ruby red.

The upper midwest is interesting too. On one hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see IA and OH go red while MN, WI, MI and PA go blue. It happened in 2000 (sans Iowa) and 2004. What would surprise me was that OH and IA were ~8 point GOP wins. If you told me that in 2008 and that alone, I'd assume the GOP candidate swept AZ and GA, won VA, won WI, and won NH and NV. I mean in 2004 when Bush won IA and OH, they weren't blowout wins. He narrowly lost WI at the same, much like Biden narrowly won WI. The only difference was that he kept WI while flopping in OH.

But all in all, if you showed me the map by itself with no shading, i'd be like "omg that's crazy, I wouldn't think GA would go blue while it's neighbors go red for at least another 15 years." Although, I'm not entirely sure a blue GA and red OH would shock me that much, considering that even in 2008 the trends were very clear. Even in 2008, the GA suburbs were growing and diversifying, Atlanta was a growing city... while Ohio was still beset by years of shrinking cities and plagued by the same woes as other rustbelt states.

Now if you showed me all the margins, that would surprise me a little bit.

[bagelman]

As an Ohioan I would be pissed. I would worry that Democrats move back to the right on certain social issues like gay marriage, as Georgia is a conservative southern state, right?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I was 3 years old so I would probably not have made much of it; I didn't even know anything beyond there was a President named Obama.

In all seriousness, I probably would've thought returned to being the party of the South somewhat like during the eras of Bill Clinton. There were some signs in the early 2000s that AZ was going to be a timebomb for the GOP anyways, but McCain stalled that trend a bit.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I was 6 years old in 2008. I didn't know what "Georgia" "Arizona" or "Ohio" were, and I would only know about Florida because of Disney World.

[Gracile]

I would be fairly surprised. For much of my life observing politics (including in 2008), I thought of Florida and Ohio as the quintessential swing states. I could have seen Georgia and Arizona flipping eventually, but probably not without Florida/Ohio.

Telling someone Florida's and Ohio's margins might be surprising to someone in 2008 as well.

[bagelman]

I would be fairly surprised. For much of my life observing politics (including in 2008), I thought of Florida and Ohio as the quintessential swing states. I could have seen Georgia and Arizona flipping eventually, but probably not without Florida/Ohio.

Telling someone Florida's and Ohio's margins might be surprising to someone in 2008 as well.

You can tell me that a Republican wins Ohio while losing nationwide. I won't believe you if you say that Republican wins my home by 8 points, almost half a million raw votes, and attempts a coup to stay in power.

[randomusername]

Democrats ran a southerner and the GOP nominated the governor of Ohio.

[MATTROSE94]

I wouldn’t be surprised, given that Georgia did trend heavily Democratic in 2008 and also considering that I predicted that Obama was going to win Georgia in 2008 as well.

[Mr. Smith]

I could get behind Georgia, since Obama did almsot jacksh&^ there and got within 5 pts that year, and the black vote was rowing.

Arizona would be a hard sell though.

[bagelman]

Democrats ran a southerner and the GOP nominated the governor of Ohio.

Good but doesn't explain Bush '92 Arizona.

[Alben Barkley]

Democrats ran a southerner and the GOP nominated the governor of Ohio.

Good but doesn't explain Bush '92 Arizona.

Bush won AZ in 1992; it was Dole who lost it in 1996. Unless I’m misunderstanding you.

[randomusername]

Democrats ran a southerner and the GOP nominated the governor of Ohio.

Good but doesn't explain Bush '92 Arizona.

Good thing I'm trying to explain a post-2008 theory.

[bagelman]

Democrats ran a southerner and the GOP nominated the governor of Ohio.

Good but doesn't explain Bush '92 Arizona.

Good thing I'm trying to explain a post-2008 theory.

I see no explanation for Arizona in this comment, only callous dismissal

[Illiniwek]

I'd be like #Realignment.

And then I'd be like wait a minute, what is a hashtag?

[Samof94]

A President normalized relations with Cuba and suffered.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I would ask how Texas voted, figuring if Phoenix and Atlanta had exploded in population, so would have Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.

[Battista Minola 1616]

7-year-old myself would have asked you what all of those words mean, and after my curiosity was piqued, I would have come back one month later after having learned to perfection the electoral history of all four states and probably answered that your prediction was very weird but you never know in life.
I'm serious, I have always had a monstrous curiosity and a very good memory, I would definitely have done that.