In the primary and the general election
Pres. Donald Trump (R-NY) / VP Mike Pence (R-IN) - 258 EVs, 48%
Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) - 240 EVs, 46%
The problem with Sanders is winning diverse states like NV, VA. I am doubting his appeal to minorities until he proves me otherwise in the primaries. He got trounced in the South during the 2016 primaries and needs to expand the coalition.
Trump starts with 258 EVs including Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, & Florida, all of which Sanders is likely to underperform. He is beating all Dems in Iowa & Ohio, FL tends to favor incumbents & coupled with Sanders’ poor performance in the South, Trump will get 52%. Due to Sanders’ weakness with minorities, he doesn’t have a chance at states like AZ or TX. He would need to retain the 2016 Dem states and add the Rust Belt to win.
Sanders performs worst in the South and best in the Northeast and West coast. The good news is he is favored in the Rust Belt, a critical area that Hillary lost in 2016. However, this becomes moot if Trump makes gains in suburban PA or VA. Although there isn’t evidence supporting that. If anything, he is regressing in these areas, and since Sanders is a rather charismatic candidate and can drive turnout it is possible he could win these states.
