Senatorial Ratings and Predictions - RESULTS

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous threads:

AZ CA CT DE FL HI IN ME MD MA MI MN MN-S MS MS-S MO MT NE NV NJ NM NY ND OH PA RI TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY

Ratings

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

No Election: 23
Safe D: 18
Likely D: 3
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up: 4
Lean R: 3 <-- Tipping point is here
Likely R: 1
Safe R: 4
No Election: 42

Predictions

(IA = MN-S) (AL = MS-S)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50 ✔

Runoffs

Mississippi Special

Pickups

Arizona
Nevada
North Dakota

Net: D+1

[ElectionsGuy]

Prediction ratios:

AZ: 83/17 Sinema
FL: 86/14 Nelson
IN: 77/23 Donnelly
MO: 60/40 McCaskill
NV: 79/21 Rosen
ND: 89/11 Cramer
TN: 90/10 Blackburn
TX: 84/16 Cruz

[ElectionsGuy]

Atlas has thus far predicted 31/34 races correct, with Mississippi special yet to go. So likely 91.4% correct prediction rate (32/35).

2 races that were rated Lean R were won by Republicans over 10% (ND, TN). 1 race that was rated Likely D was only won by 3% (WV). Three of the five toss-ups were won by 5% or more (IN, MO, NV).

[IceSpear]

LOL at Nevada being the only race where Atlas overestimated Republicans. People truly are incapable of learning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems were expecting to pick up 25 House seats. With all the new House seats, you would think Dems would have won the Senate

[Xing]

LOL at Nevada being the only race where Atlas overestimated Republicans. People truly are incapable of learning.

Well, New Jersey as well, but I guess that falls under "incapable of learning" too.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this was like the most predictable map ever considering that this is Atlas.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, this was like the most predictable map ever considering that this is Atlas.

The forum seriously has problems with overestimating Democrats in red states and underestimating Republicans in purple states (the exception being Nevada, of course). Just look at how all toss-ups were predicted to go towards Democrats, and blood red states Tennessee and North Dakota only 'Lean R' when it should've been clear that Texas was more competitive than those two, even if only by a little bit.

[IceSpear]

The forum seriously has problems with overestimating Democrats in red states and underestimating Republicans in purple states (the exception being Nevada, of course).

Fixed.