Senate: will Democrats win Arizona, Nevada, or Missouri?

[°Leprechaun]

They could all be close.

Vote for which ones you think that Democrats will win.

These could be the closest three (although Indiana and Florida may be close also).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that individually the Democrat is favored in each one, but they're all close, so the most likely collective outcome is that they win 2 of the 3.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think the most likely result is winning AZ, NV, and losing MO. Though as GeorgiaModerate said, them winning 2/3 of them, no matter what they are, is likely.

[Seriously?]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It can be a wash with Dems losing ND and MO winning AZ and NV

[DaWN]

There's no scenario in which McCaskill wins but Rosen and/or Sinema loses. Seriously.

[mgop]

nevada maybe, arizona and missouri no way

[wbrocks67]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

They wouldn't be "healing" in Mid October. Also, Nevada had one Heller +7 poll. The others all are all within like 2%. CNN also had a poll of Trump +6 in early November in Nevada, and we know how that turned out.

[Xing]

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

[😥]

Arizona still Tossup/Tilt D (it going to R), but Sinema win
Missouri still Tossup, I think McCaskill win
Nevada still Tossup/Tilt D (it going to R, as Arizona), but in Nevada win Heller

[ON Progressive]

I think Democrats win Nevada unless it's an awful night for Democrats (I'm talking not even picking up 10 House seats and losing IN/MO/ND/FL/WV bad).

Arizona also appears to be leaning D given that Sinema seems to outrun Trump approval in every poll, and Trump can't be that popular in Arizona.

My gut tells me McCaskill will pull it out, but it's definitely close. I think it might actually be the closest Senate race of the night.

[Del Tachi]

NOTA

NV is quickly moving towards Heller, GOP suburbanites will come home for McSally, and the momentum is against McCaskill in MO.

[Seriously?]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

NOTA

NV is quickly moving towards Heller, GOP suburbanites will come home for McSally, and the momentum is against McCaskill in MO.

Translation: "I'm a hack"

[Xing]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

Here's the thing about incumbency. It helps when an incumbent is popular and has strong ties to their state, or when it's a good year for their party. Incumbency isn't exactly helping Rauner in IL-GOV, but it's invaluable to someone like Baker in MA-GOV. Why? Popularity. It's also why Manchin is in better shape than McCaskill. Polls have consistently shown Heller to be unpopular, sometimes less popular than Trump in NV, and this isn't looking to be a good year for Republicans.

All in all, it's more believable that polls are underestimating Democrats in NV, which has happened many times before, than it is that there's going to be a red wave or that NV will swing massively Republican even during a blue wave.

[Seriously?]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

Here's the thing about incumbency. It helps when an incumbent is popular and has strong ties to their state, or when it's a good year for their party. Incumbency isn't exactly helping Rauner in IL-GOV, but it's invaluable to someone like Baker in MA-GOV. Why? Popularity. It's also why Manchin is in better shape than McCaskill. Polls have consistently shown Heller to be unpopular, sometimes less popular than Trump in NV, and this isn't looking to be a good year for Republicans.

All in all, it's more believable that polls are underestimating Democrats in NV, which has happened many times before, than it is that there's going to be a red wave or that NV will swing massively Republican even during a blue wave.

I hardly call an incumbent keeping his or her seat a "red wave" or a "blue wave" kind of thing. That's what generally happens in America ~90-98% of the time. If Heller wins, it's basically status quo. Despite all the hoopla about red wave/blue wave in the press, this could honestly just be a status quo-type election.

[ON Progressive]

You underestimate the power of incumbency in most cycles, which is why McCaskill has a fighting chance in Missouri.

Heller has a lead in Nevada right now from all the recent polling. With that said, I do think NV is way more vulnerable than AZ for the Republicans.

Atlas is so preeictable. Of course you all are buying an EMERSON poll (of Nevada, no less) that is completely out of line with other polls. Atlas tried to argue that Trump and Heck would win Nevada because polls showed a similar thing (though about two weeks before this current point in the election), and people said I was crazy for thinking that they’d both lose, even in a good night for Republicans. We all saw how that turned out. People never learn.

Anyway, Democrats will win Nevada unless it’s a 2014-style red wave, while Arizona and Missouri will be close. Right now, I think Democrats win Arizona and Republicans win Missouri. #FundamentalsMatter

Here's the thing about incumbency. It helps when an incumbent is popular and has strong ties to their state, or when it's a good year for their party. Incumbency isn't exactly helping Rauner in IL-GOV, but it's invaluable to someone like Baker in MA-GOV. Why? Popularity. It's also why Manchin is in better shape than McCaskill. Polls have consistently shown Heller to be unpopular, sometimes less popular than Trump in NV, and this isn't looking to be a good year for Republicans.

All in all, it's more believable that polls are underestimating Democrats in NV, which has happened many times before, than it is that there's going to be a red wave or that NV will swing massively Republican even during a blue wave.

I hardly call an incumbent keeping his or her seat a "red wave" or a "blue wave" kind of thing. That's what generally happens in America ~90-98% of the time. If Heller wins, it's basically status quo.

Incumbents win so often because most of them are in safe seats in the first place, and many incumbents that know they're vulnerable just retire rather than face re-election.

[MT Treasurer]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

Turns out the unpopular Democratic incumbent in the Republican-trending Trump +18 state and the unpopular Republican incumbent in the Democratic-trending Clinton +3 state both lost, while Democrats picked up the open seat in the Democratic-trending Trump +3 state in a Democratic wave year. Who would have thought?

[Xing]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

Turns out the unpopular Democratic incumbent in the Republican-trending Trump +18 state and the unpopular Republican incumbent in the Democratic-trending Clinton +3 state both lost, while Democrats picked up the open seat in the Democratic-trending Trump +3 state in a Democratic wave year. Who would have thought?

Well, some of us thought that, but we just have "obsessions" or something like that.

[MT Treasurer]

Missouri. McCaskill always figures out a way to eke out a win.

Nevada is looking increasingly unlikely. Arizona will revert back to normal form. Keep in mind they had a late primary and are still "healing' per se.

Turns out the unpopular Democratic incumbent in the Republican-trending Trump +18 state and the unpopular Republican incumbent in the Democratic-trending Clinton +3 state both lost, while Democrats picked up the open seat in the Democratic-trending Trump +3 state in a Democratic wave year. Who would have thought?

Well, some of us thought that, but we just have "obsessions" or something like that.

Yeah, it’s hilarious how many Republicans were bearish on their chances in Missouri while even most Democrats dramatically overrated Heller. Stockholm syndrome?