How do Republicans get back Nassau, Cobb, Morris, Tarrant, Orange, DuPage?

[Suburbia]

How does the Republican Party regain and take back the suburban fortresses they have built since the 1950s and 1960s?

https://www.ozy.com/need-to-know/election-dossier-a-divided-washington/90446

[Bidenworth2020]

be more like george w bush

[RI]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

Yes, but more to the point is winning back college educated people.

be more like george w bush

Bush started this transition I would point out. Bush allienated Nassau with guns, and DuPage and NOVA first voted Democratic in 2008. NOVA, Cobb, and Orange are being hammered because of Millennials that were turned into militant Democrats by Bush's FP and economy.

How does the Republican Party regain and take back the suburban fortresses they have built since the 1950s and 1960s?

https://www.ozy.com/need-to-know/election-dossier-a-divided-washington/90446

Education, Climate, and social libertarianism. On education they need to come off as pro-reform instead of pro-gutting education. On Climate they have to embrace science and work to find solutions that comport with free market solutions. On social libertarianism they have to expand the scope of "smaller gov't" to include respect for gay rights for instance and also criminal justice reform.

And thus very much unlike Bush in a lot of ways.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

Basically try and recreate the Vietnamese and Tejano strategy that has worked in Texas for years and export it out to all states.

[lfromnj]

They don't
Go for rural hicks

[Brittain33]

Tarrant, Morris, DuPage: wait for a Democratic President
Nassau, Cobb, Orange: they don't

[Mr. Illini]

DuPage: wait for a Democratic President

DuPage voted to re-elect Obama in 2012 and voted for Clinton in 2016

[RI]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

Yes, but more to the point is winning back college educated people.

College educated whites are gone. Move on.

[RI]

Arizona Independents, Republicans Mull Electing Democrat Sinema To Senate | NBC News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHIPLUelLRw

^^ Republicans can't win without "white college educated voters" in many states

Sure they can. They just need to replace them with another group. WCEVs are not actually that big of a chunk of the electorate overall.

[DC Al Fine]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

Yes, but more to the point is winning back college educated people.

College educated whites are gone. Move on.

Have to agree here. Besides all the usual issues like the relgious right and Trumpism, college educated people feel more financially strained than they did in the 1980's, which makes it harder for even a traditional GOP to stop the bleeding.

If anything needs to go in the GOP its the Paul Ryan style fiscal orthodoxy. Sure there are some right wing economic policies that will work with the new coalition like "build baby build" and eliminating SALT, but the Republicans really shouldnt be trying to be liked on the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal.

Family friendly economic populism is the name of the game here.

[DC Al Fine]

Trump narrowly won white college educated voters in 2016,
Trump already maxed out with "white working class voters"
How can republicans win NC, Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, etc without white college educated voters?!
and who are they gonna replace them with ?! "Hispanics/Asians/African Americans voters" aren't gonna vote for Trump republican party


Trump’s Minority Coalition
Unlike Nixon or Reagan, he hasn’t expanded his 2016 support.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-minority-coalition-1541635108

^^Republicans have the reverse problem the tories have in England,
the tories dominate suburban middle England and would love to have working class support they lost during the thatcher years, while republicans are dominating white working class voters and struggling with Suburban middle class voters...

Why would you say the GOP has maxed out the WWC?

[Brittain33]

DuPage: wait for a Democratic President

DuPage voted to re-elect Obama in 2012 and voted for Clinton in 2016

I’m sure you know the county better than I do. I am assuming it’s like Morris County NJ. I’m not surprised by Clinton’s numbers in a county like that, but how much does Obama being from Illinois disqualify the 2012 results?

[Tintrlvr]

be more like george h w bush

You forgot a letter. W wouldn't win any of those counties except Tarrant and maybe Morris if he ran today.

[mvd10]

Are we talking about Morris County in NJ? Because Morris, NJ voted for both Trump and Hugin. It's less Republican than in 2012, but the trend there wasn't even that strong compared to other suburbs.

Anyway, I'm not sure whether we should completely write these places off. Sure, there was somewhat of a trend, but Trump basically doing 10-15% with suburban college-educated whites in Sunbelt suburbs than Romney can't just be attributed to natural trends. GA-6 for example became slightly less Republican over the years (from 65-70% in the early 2000s to 60% in 2012), but the swing in 2016 was bigger than the swing of the past 20 years combined (from 61% to 48%). In the long-term the most diverse suburbs definitely are gone, but I believe Trump actually would have won places like OC and Cobb if he did only ≈3 points worse with whites in Cobb or OC than Romney (which probably would reflect the actual natural trend of old conservative college grads being replaced by liberal transplants and young progressive college grads fairly well).

I do agree that by the 2030s/2040s college-educated whites probably will be a D-leaning group for the reasons DC outlined. A rich college graduate can vote GOP out of financial reasons (I don't think their swing to the Dems will be lasting), a poor white without a degree will definitely keep voting GOP out of of cultural reasons (I do think this will be lasting) but poor college grads literally don't have a single reason to be right-wing (unless they graduated from Liberty University lol) and by the 2030s we're going to have a lot of college graduates, which means not everyone gets a well-paid job.

[lfromnj]

Are we talking about Morris County in NJ? Because Morris, NJ voted for both Trump and Hugin. It's less Republican than in 2012, but the trend there wasn't even that strong compared to other suburbs.

Anyway, I'm not sure whether we should completely write these places off. Sure, there was somewhat of a trend, but Trump basically doing 10-15% with suburban college-educated whites in Sunbelt suburbs than Romney can't just be attributed to natural trends. GA-6 for example became slightly less Republican over the years (from 65-70% in the early 2000s to 60% in 2012), but the swing in 2016 was bigger than the swing of the past 20 years combined (from 61% to 48%). In the long-term the most diverse suburbs definitely are gone, but I believe Trump actually would have won places like OC and Cobb if he did only ≈3 points worse with whites in Cobb or OC than Romney (which probably would reflect the actual natural trend of old conservative college grads being replaced by liberal transplants and young progressive college grads fairly well).

I do agree that by the 2030s/2040s college-educated whites probably will be a D-leaning group for the reasons DC outlined. A rich college graduate can vote GOP out of financial reasons (I don't think their swing to the Dems will be lasting), a poor white without a degree will definitely keep voting GOP out of of cultural reasons (I do think this will be lasting) but poor college grads literally don't have a single reason to be right-wing (unless they graduated from Liberty University lol) and by the 2030s we're going to have a lot of college graduates, which means not everyone gets a well-paid job.

Of course morris was gonna vote for Hugin. Menendez was pretty awful
Anyway Hugin basically combined Trumps+Romneys map +3 points overall.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Trump narrowly won white college educated voters in 2016,
Trump already maxed out with "white working class voters"
How can republicans win NC, Virginia, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, etc without white college educated voters?!
and who are they gonna replace them with ?! "Hispanics/Asians/African Americans voters" aren't gonna vote for Trump republican party


Trump’s Minority Coalition
Unlike Nixon or Reagan, he hasn’t expanded his 2016 support.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-minority-coalition-1541635108

^^Republicans have the reverse problem the tories have in England,
the tories dominate suburban middle England and would love to have working class support they lost during the thatcher years, while republicans are dominating white working class voters and struggling with Suburban middle class voters...

Why would you say the GOP has maxed out the WWC?

Because not all of them are culturally conservative. I know a girl in Minneapolis who is a f[inks]ing auto mechanic and wears one of those silly "She/Her" pronouns buttons when attending Pride Fest,

[smoltchanov]

Get rid of Trump and his hostile policies,

adopt a lot the UK conservatives/ German CDU policies (embrace climate change, talk about housing costs, reach out to minorities, stop talking about social issues like abortion and support LGBT rights, make the positive case for immigration and support apprenticeship programs.

In the UK, a majority of Hindu and Sikh voters voted Tory back in 2015

Hindu: 41% Labour, 49% Conservative
Sikh (based on a small sample): 41% Labour, 49% Conservative

[Intell]

What 2018 shows is that the Democrats had in no way maxed out their performance of college-educated white voters in 2016. And a lot of these voters were won by progressive candidates!

There is also an age thing to why college-educated white voters are becoming more democratic, they disproportionately younger then non-college educated voters.

[TDAS04]

be more like george h w bush

[muon2]

The recipe for most suburban mayors over the last 20 years is still one that resonates in suburban counties today: good schools, healthy environment including open space, safe neighborhoods, well-maintained transportation. As the national Pubs moved their appeal to small-town America 20 years ago and more recently the disaffected voters including those in the WWC, they lost that suburban message and with it over time the suburban voters.

[Mr. Illini]

DuPage: wait for a Democratic President

DuPage voted to re-elect Obama in 2012 and voted for Clinton in 2016

I’m sure you know the county better than I do. I am assuming it’s like Morris County NJ. I’m not surprised by Clinton’s numbers in a county like that, but how much does Obama being from Illinois disqualify the 2012 results?

I think very little. Elsewhere in IL, the hometown effect had a much smaller impact in 2012 than in 2008.

Also, it should be noted that Pritzker carried DuPage this past Tuesday. I know we have a Republican President, but Rauner is about as good a fit as it gets in terms of a Republican in DuPage.

[muon2]

DuPage: wait for a Democratic President

DuPage voted to re-elect Obama in 2012 and voted for Clinton in 2016

I’m sure you know the county better than I do. I am assuming it’s like Morris County NJ. I’m not surprised by Clinton’s numbers in a county like that, but how much does Obama being from Illinois disqualify the 2012 results?

I think very little. Elsewhere in IL, the hometown effect had a much smaller impact in 2012 than in 2008.

Also, it should be noted that Pritzker carried DuPage this past Tuesday. I know we have a Republican President, but Rauner is about as good a fit as it gets in terms of a Republican in DuPage.

In principle Rauner should have been a good fit for DuPage, but he strayed far from suburban priorities as he concentrated on going after unions and Chicago's control over major parts of the legislative process. If he had concentrated on a capital bill and school reforms from the outset, I think you would have seen a very different level of support.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Win over Asians and maybe Hispanics

Yes, but more to the point is winning back college educated people.

College educated whites are gone. Move on.

Hold on, hold on, why the hell am I being lectured to on this point? I am the biggest promoter of the demographic realignment theory as the basis for Trumpism. I don't need to move on from crap, I was answering the OPs question as to what would have to happen to achieve a specifically stated result.

Whether or not that result is possible or realistic was not discussed.

[Bidenworth2020]

^^ republicans need to win over college educated white women, If they want to win the suburbs,
It's hard to see republicans winning the house or the presidency with those margins, WCE women make up 20% of the electorate.
Mitt Romney won college educated white women in 2012.

Romney still lost some of these counties that were 80% white (Nassau, DuPage). And the areas he won in (Cobb, Orange, Tarrant) are mainly flipping due to changes in demographics. White college educated women flipping to Democrats is only padding these margins.